How did Brainerd, MN vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Brainerd, MN voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+31.9. Kamala D Harris received 20,473 votes and Donald Trump received 40,182 out of 61,729 total votes cast, a 2.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Brainerd, MN's political history?

Brainerd, MN has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 57.6 points in 1920.

What are the demographics of Brainerd, MN?

Brainerd, MN has a population of 362,970 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 91.8% non-Hispanic white, 1.3% Hispanic. About 23% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $51,215.

Which places are most similar to Brainerd, MN?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Brainerd, MN are Fergus Falls, MN, Alexandria, MN, Grand Rapids, MN. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Brainerd, MN

Lakes-country hub where rural white working-class shifts reshaped statewide margins

The Brainerd lakes region, anchored by a paper-mill and tourism economy, has swung sharply toward Republican presidential candidates since 2008, making Crow Wing County a reliable bellwether for outstate Minnesota's political drift.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 14660

Population363K

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

44.1y▲ 5.2

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

23.0%▼ 12.0

White91.8%
Native4.0%
Two or more2.5%
Hispanic1.3%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Brainerd, MNBaseline

Cycle2024

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Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Fergus Falls, MN, Alexandria, MN, and Grand Rapids, MN.

8 visible matches

Fergus Falls, MN

Small-town rural republican

R+34.1

Similarity score97%

Alexandria, MN

Small-town rural republican

R+35.0

Similarity score95%

Grand Rapids, MN

Small-town rural republican

R+20.1

Similarity score95%

Rice Lake, WI

Small-town rural republican

R+29.0

Similarity score95%

Ludington, MI

Small-town rural republican

R+21.4

Similarity score94%

Detroit Lakes, MN

Small-town rural republican 2

R+33.1

Similarity score94%

Morehead City, NC

Small-town rural republican

R+43.0

Similarity score94%

Escanaba, MI

Small-town rural republican

R+30.4

Similarity score93%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Brainerd, MN

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Crow Wing	68K	R+31.3	14,173	27,423	42,366	17.2%
Crow Wing	63K	R+31.3	14,173	27,423	42,366	17.2%
Crow Wing	61K	R+31.3	14,173	27,423	42,366	17.2%
Crow Wing	55K	R+31.3	14,173	27,423	42,366	17.2%
Cass	31K	R+33.4	6,300	12,759	19,363	7.8%
Cass	29K	R+33.4	6,300	12,759	19,363	7.8%
Cass	29K	R+33.4	6,300	12,759	19,363	7.8%
Cass	27K	R+33.4	6,300	12,759	19,363	7.8%

8 countiesTotal votes: 246,916

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Brainerd, MN's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Brainerd, MN metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Brainerd, MNCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 91.8%Native American 4.0%Multiracial 2.2%Hispanic 1.3%Black 0.4%Asian 0.4%

Group	Brainerd, MN	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	91.8%	57.4%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	4.0%	0.9%
Multiracial / Other	2.2%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(14)	1.3%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(9)	0.4%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	0.4%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

36.5%(36.0K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Mainline Protestant	14.5%	39.7%	—	—
Catholic	12.0%	33.0%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	9.1%	24.9%	—	—
Other	0.9%	2.4%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.2%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	63.5%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Mainline Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Brainerd, MN metro area? 362,970 residents across 8 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Brainerd, MN vs National363K residents

23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

363K

local

363KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.11%

local

0.11%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.7%

local

40.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$51,215

local

$51,215National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.4%

local

11.4%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

23.0%

local

23.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

79.4%

local

79.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

44.1 yrs

local

44.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.5%

local

9.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.9%

local

16.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.2%

local

1.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.7%

local

2.7%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

97.3%

local

97.3%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Brainerd, MN

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

78.9%

vs Previous

+4.2pp

Eligible Non-Voters

17K · 21.1%

Citizen VAP

78,252

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Brainerd, MN split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (55/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+31.9	R+18.9	13.0pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 9.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Brainerd, MN sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Minnesota(State)

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