Williston Basin energy economy shapes a reliably Republican electorate
Minot anchors north-central North Dakota's oil-patch workforce, where presidential margins have run 30-plus points Republican in recent cycles and military ties to Minot Air Force Base add a significant active-duty demographic to the voter pool.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ward | 69K | R+47.0 | 7,215 | 20,635 | 28,552 | 22.0% |
| Ward | 69K | R+47.0 | 7,215 | 20,635 | 28,552 | 22.0% |
| Ward | 59K | R+47.0 | 7,215 | 20,635 | 28,552 | 22.0% |
| Ward | 56K | R+47.0 | 7,215 | 20,635 | 28,552 | 22.0% |
| McHenry | 6K | R+63.4 | 479 | 2,223 | 2,752 | 2.1% |
| McHenry | 6K | R+63.4 | 479 | 2,223 | 2,752 | 2.1% |
| McHenry | 5K | R+63.4 | 479 | 2,223 | 2,752 | 2.1% |
| McHenry | 5K | R+63.4 | 479 | 2,223 | 2,752 | 2.1% |
| Renville | 3K | R+67.4 | 179 | 993 | 1,208 | 0.9% |
| Renville | 3K | R+67.4 | 179 | 993 | 1,208 | 0.9% |
| Renville | 2K | R+67.4 | 179 | 993 | 1,208 | 0.9% |
| Renville | 2K | R+67.4 | 179 | 993 | 1,208 | 0.9% |
| Group | Minot, ND | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 87.4% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 4.2% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 2.8% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.7% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 1.8% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(5) | 1.1% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +14.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.1% | 37.8% | — | — | |
| 16.4% | 36.4% | — | — | |
| 8.4% | 18.5% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 7.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 2.6% | 5.9% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 54.9% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Minot, ND metro area? 285,234 residents across 12 counties.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+45.8 | R+53.6 | 7.9pp |
| President vs Governor | R+49.1 | R+53.6 | 4.5pp |
| President vs Senate | R+49.1 | R+45.8 | 3.4pp |