Skip to main content
Live · Metropolitan area

Modesto, CA

Central Valley's bellwether corridor where farm economy meets suburban growth

The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.

Presidential margin · 2024
Data unavailable for this race.
Race data unavailable
Geography
Race data unavailable
No current race for this office.
2024FIPS 33700
Population2.0M
Median ageU.S. 38.9y
33.2y▼ 5.7
Bachelor's+U.S. 35%
16.7%▼ 18.3
  • White46.3%
  • Hispanic41.8%
  • Other14.5%
  • Two or more11.0%
  • Asian5.3%
  • Black2.7%
  • Native1.1%
Trajectory · 2008–2024
Modesto, CABaseline
Reagan → Bush IIObama → TrumpR+100D+102020flip · 2024D+10R+15
Cycle2024
Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer
Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Fresno, CA, Bakersfield-Delano, CA, and Visalia, CA.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Modesto, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Stanislaus554K
R+11.0
85,347106,986197,47225.0%
Stanislaus531K
R+11.0
85,347106,986197,47225.0%
Stanislaus505K
R+11.0
85,347106,986197,47225.0%
Stanislaus447K
R+11.0
85,347106,986197,47225.0%
4 countiesTotal votes: 789,888
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Modesto, CA's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Modesto, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 46.3%Hispanic 41.8%Asian 5.3%Black 2.7%Multiracial 2.6%Native American 1.1%
GroupModesto, CANational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
46.3%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)
41.8%19.3%
▶Asian(6)
5.3%6.0%
▶Black / African American(11)
2.7%12.2%
Multiracial / Other
2.6%4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.8%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)
1.1%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)
0.2%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
38.6%(214.1K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +20.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
20.9%54.2%——
Evangelical Protestant
11.3%29.3%——
Other
4.9%12.6%——
LDS (Mormon)
2.2%5.7%——
Mainline Protestant
0.9%2.3%——
Black Protestant
0.5%1.2%——
Orthodox Christian
0.2%0.5%——
Non-religiousPopulation
61.4%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Modesto, CA metro area? 2,036,713 residents across 4 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Export CSVPro
Modesto, CA vs National2.0M residents

17% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 16pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+22 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
2.0M
local
2.0MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.61%
local
0.61%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
38.3%
local
38.3%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$57,158
local
$57,158National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
15.7%
local
15.7%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
16.7%
local
16.7%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
60.6%
local
60.6%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
33.2 yrs
local
33.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
13.3%
local
13.3%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
9.4%
local
9.4%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
20.0%
local
20.0%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
39.1%
local
39.1%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
60.9%
local
60.9%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Modesto, CA

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.
2024 Turnout
56.4%
vs Previous
-5.0pp
Eligible Non-Voters
152K · 43.6%
Citizen VAP
349,960
History
1988–2024
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Modesto, CA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+11.0R+10.60.4pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 31.0pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Modesto, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.
Upgrade Path

Unlock Metro Area Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.
Target plan Pro$33/mo
Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.
Precinct-Level Data
See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct
Smart Insights
Automated highlights from recent election patterns
Full Historical Access
165 years of election data at every level of geography
CSV Exports
Download any table or chart as a CSV file
Upgrade to Pro$33/mo