How did Modesto, CA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Modesto, CA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+11.0. Kamala D Harris received 85,347 votes and Donald Trump received 106,986 out of 197,472 total votes cast, a 11.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Modesto, CA's political history?

Modesto, CA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 26 and Republicans 14 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 56.9 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Modesto, CA?

Modesto, CA has a population of 2,036,713 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 46.3% non-Hispanic white, 41.8% Hispanic, 2.7% Black. About 17% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $57,158.

Which places are most similar to Modesto, CA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Modesto, CA are Fresno, CA, Bakersfield-Delano, CA, Visalia, CA. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Modesto, CA

Central Valley's bellwether corridor where farm economy meets suburban growth

The Modesto metro sits at the heart of California's San Joaquin Valley, where agricultural employment and a rapidly diversifying suburban population have produced competitive margins in statewide contests that often track national mood swings.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 33700

Population2.0M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

33.2y▼ 5.7

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

16.7%▼ 18.3

White46.3%
Hispanic41.8%
Other14.5%
Two or more11.0%
Asian5.3%
Black2.7%
Native1.1%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Modesto, CABaseline

Cycle2024

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Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Fresno, CA, Bakersfield-Delano, CA, and Visalia, CA.

8 visible matches

Fresno, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+6.7

Similarity score97%

Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+21.1

Similarity score97%

Visalia, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+20.9

Similarity score97%

Merced, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+4.4

Similarity score96%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+1.7

Similarity score96%

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Diverse rural democratic

D+29.9

Similarity score95%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Modesto, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Stanislaus	554K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	25.0%
Stanislaus	531K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	25.0%
Stanislaus	505K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	25.0%
Stanislaus	447K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	25.0%

4 countiesTotal votes: 789,888

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Modesto, CA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Modesto, CA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Modesto, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 46.3%Hispanic 41.8%Asian 5.3%Black 2.7%Multiracial 2.6%Native American 1.1%

Group	Modesto, CA	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	46.3%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	41.8%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	5.3%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(11)	2.7%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.6%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	1.8%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.1%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	0.2%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

38.6%(214.1K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +20.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	20.9%	54.2%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	11.3%	29.3%	—	—
Other	4.9%	12.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	2.2%	5.7%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	0.9%	2.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.5%	1.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	61.4%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Modesto, CA metro area? 2,036,713 residents across 4 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Modesto, CA vs National2.0M residents

17% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 16pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+22 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.0M

local

2.0MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.61%

local

0.61%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.3%

local

38.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$57,158

local

$57,158National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.7%

local

15.7%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.7%

local

16.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

60.6%

local

60.6%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.2 yrs

local

33.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.3%

local

13.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.4%

local

9.4%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.0%

local

20.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.1%

local

39.1%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

60.9%

local

60.9%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Modesto, CA

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

56.4%

vs Previous

-5.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

152K · 43.6%

Citizen VAP

349,960

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Modesto, CA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+11.0	R+10.6	0.4pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 31.0pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Modesto, CA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

California(State)

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