A Central Valley metro where Latino majority growth is reshaping the electorate
Merced's population is majority Latino and among the youngest in California, with UC Merced's expansion adding a growing student demographic that analysts watch as a bellwether for inland Valley turnout trends.
| Group | Merced, CA | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 55.4% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 31.3% | 57.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 7.2% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 3.4% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.6% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +55.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.9% | 75.1% | — | — | |
| 6.8% | 15.6% | — | — | |
| 2.7% | 6.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 2.3% | — | — |
| 0.8% | 1.8% | — | — | |
| 0.6% | 1.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 56.3% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Merced, CA metro area? 1,007,991 residents across 4 counties.
13% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 20pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+28 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+4.4 | R+3.5 | 0.9pp |