New Hampshire is a swing state that keeps deciding the same way by a little. It voted for George W. Bush in 2000 by 1.3 points, then went Democratic in the six presidential elections since — but never widely: D+1.4 in 2004, D+9.7 in 2008, D+5.6 in 2012, D+0.4 in 2016, D+7.4 in 2020, and D+2.8 in 2024, a 4.6-point move toward Donald Trump in the last cycle. Only ten counties divide its 826,205 votes, and they pull two ways at once. The arithmetic stays close because the halves are close to balanced.
The Democratic margin sits in the south and the college towns. Grafton County, around Dartmouth in Hanover, was the strongest in 2024 at D+19.8; Strafford, home to the University of New Hampshire in Durham, ran D+12.0, and Cheshire D+9.9. Hillsborough — Manchester and Nashua, the largest county, casting 234,443 votes, more than a quarter of the state — is the hinge: R+0.2 in 2016, D+7.6 in 2020, D+2.9 in 2024. The Republican ground is the lakes and the North Country. Belknap, around Lake Winnipesaukee, voted R+13.0, and Coos, the northernmost county, R+13.7 — its widest in the years on record, after R+5.9 in 2020 and D+17.5 as recently as 2012.
The profile underneath is distinct. New Hampshire is among the least religiously affiliated states in the country, ranking first of fifty with 72.8 percent of residents claiming no denomination and 47th in Evangelical adherence. It is affluent and old — sixth in median household income at $99,031, first in the lowest poverty rate at 7.3 percent, and second-oldest in median age at 43.5 years — and it levies neither a general sales tax nor a broad income tax. Irish ancestry leads at 20.6 percent, with English and a French-Canadian thread from the mill towns. The cross-currents run beneath one of the country’s closest states.
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