Mahoning Valley's blue-collar shift reshaped Ohio's electoral math
Once a union-Democratic stronghold anchored by the steel industry, the Youngstown media market has swung sharply toward Republican margins over the past decade as deindustrialization and demographic change reshaped voter allegiances across Mahoning and Trumbull counties.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahoning | 258K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 8.9% |
| Mahoning | 241K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 8.9% |
| Mahoning | 233K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 8.9% |
| Mahoning | 226K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 8.9% |
| Trumbull | 225K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 7.6% |
| Trumbull | 213K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 7.6% |
| Trumbull | 205K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 7.6% |
| Trumbull | 201K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 7.6% |
| Mercer | 120K | R+30.2 | 20,145 | 37,761 | 58,410 | 4.6% |
| Mercer | 117K | R+30.2 | 20,145 | 37,761 | 58,410 | 4.6% |
| Mercer | 115K | R+30.2 | 20,145 | 37,761 | 58,410 | 4.6% |
| Columbiana | 112K | R+49.0 | 12,064 | 35,607 | 48,053 | 3.8% |
| Mercer | 109K | R+30.2 | 20,145 | 37,761 | 58,410 | 4.6% |
| Columbiana | 109K | R+49.0 | 12,064 | 35,607 | 48,053 | 3.8% |
| Columbiana | 105K | R+49.0 | 12,064 | 35,607 | 48,053 | 3.8% |
| Columbiana | 101K | R+49.0 | 12,064 | 35,607 | 48,053 | 3.8% |
| Group | Youngstown | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.6% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 9.3% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 2.5% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.8% | 36.8% | — | — | |
| 15.0% | 32.9% | — | — | |
| 7.9% | 17.4% | — | — | |
| 3.6% | 7.9% | — | — | |
| 1.6% | 3.5% | — | — | |
| 0.7% | 1.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 54.2% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Youngstown media market? 2,690,373 residents across 16 counties.
19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+21.5 | R+12.7 | 8.8pp |