How did Toledo vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Toledo voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+14.3. Kamala D Harris received 218,681 votes and Donald Trump received 292,307 out of 516,280 total votes cast, a 3.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Toledo's political history?

Toledo has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 16 and Republicans 24 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 46.4 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Toledo?

Toledo has a population of 4,291,578 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 82.1% non-Hispanic white, 6.0% Hispanic, 8.6% Black. About 22% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $50,845.

Which places are most similar to Toledo?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Toledo are Dayton, Davenport-R.Island-Moline, La Crosse-Eau Claire. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Toledo

A mid-size Midwest market where blue-collar suburbs tilt close races

Toledo's media market spans northwest Ohio and reaches into southeast Michigan, blending industrial Rust Belt precincts with rural agricultural counties that together make statewide margins unusually sensitive to shifts here.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 547

Population4.3M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

38y▼ 0.9

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

22.1%▼ 12.9

White82.1%
Black8.6%
Hispanic6.0%
Two or more3.3%
Other2.0%
Asian1.1%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

ToledoBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Dayton, Davenport-R.Island-Moline, and La Crosse-Eau Claire.

8 visible matches

Dayton

Small-town rural republican 3

R+24.7

Similarity score86%

Davenport-R.Island-Moline

Small-town rural republican 3

R+11.5

Similarity score86%

La Crosse-Eau Claire

Small-town rural republican 3

R+7.9

Similarity score85%

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

Small-town rural republican 2

R+11.0

Similarity score85%

Youngstown

Small-town rural republican 2

R+21.5

Similarity score82%

Cleveland-Akron (Canton)

Small-town rural republican 3

R+2.3

Similarity score80%

Pittsburgh

Small-town rural republican 3

R+8.1

Similarity score79%

Green Bay-Appleton

Small-town rural republican 3

R+17.3

Similarity score78%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Toledo

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Lucas	465K	D+12.6	106,320	82,398	190,609	9.2%
Lucas	455K	D+12.6	106,320	82,398	190,609	9.2%
Lucas	435K	D+12.6	106,320	82,398	190,609	9.2%
Lucas	428K	D+12.6	106,320	82,398	190,609	9.2%
Wood	132K	R+10.2	30,016	36,877	67,586	3.3%
Wood	129K	R+10.2	30,016	36,877	67,586	3.3%
Wood	125K	R+10.2	30,016	36,877	67,586	3.3%
Wood	121K	R+10.2	30,016	36,877	67,586	3.3%
Lenawee	101K	R+23.0	20,787	33,463	55,016	2.7%
Lenawee	99K	R+23.0	20,787	33,463	55,016	2.7%
Lenawee	99K	R+23.0	20,787	33,463	55,016	2.7%
Lenawee	98K	R+23.0	20,787	33,463	55,016	2.7%
Hancock	76K	R+38.4	11,467	26,052	37,943	1.8%
Hancock	75K	R+38.4	11,467	26,052	37,943	1.8%
Hancock	74K	R+38.4	11,467	26,052	37,943	1.8%
Hancock	71K	R+38.4	11,467	26,052	37,943	1.8%
Sandusky	62K	R+30.9	10,139	19,311	29,716	1.4%
Sandusky	61K	R+30.9	10,139	19,311	29,716	1.4%
Sandusky	60K	R+30.9	10,139	19,311	29,716	1.4%
Sandusky	59K	R+30.9	10,139	19,311	29,716	1.4%
Seneca	59K	R+37.5	7,765	17,241	25,263	1.2%
Seneca	57K	R+37.5	7,765	17,241	25,263	1.2%
Seneca	56K	R+37.5	7,765	17,241	25,263	1.2%
Seneca	55K	R+37.5	7,765	17,241	25,263	1.2%
Fulton	42K	R+42.4	6,374	15,893	22,454	1.1%
Fulton	42K	R+42.4	6,374	15,893	22,454	1.1%
Fulton	42K	R+42.4	6,374	15,893	22,454	1.1%
Fulton	42K	R+42.4	6,374	15,893	22,454	1.1%
Ottawa	41K	R+25.1	8,866	14,872	23,960	1.2%
Ottawa	41K	R+25.1	8,866	14,872	23,960	1.2%
Ottawa	41K	R+25.1	8,866	14,872	23,960	1.2%
Ottawa	40K	R+25.1	8,866	14,872	23,960	1.2%
Defiance	40K	R+39.9	5,667	13,302	19,156	0.9%
Williams	39K	R+48.3	4,644	13,461	18,275	0.9%
Defiance	39K	R+39.9	5,667	13,302	19,156	0.9%
Defiance	38K	R+39.9	5,667	13,302	19,156	0.9%
Defiance	38K	R+39.9	5,667	13,302	19,156	0.9%
Williams	38K	R+48.3	4,644	13,461	18,275	0.9%
Williams	37K	R+48.3	4,644	13,461	18,275	0.9%
Williams	37K	R+48.3	4,644	13,461	18,275	0.9%
Henry	29K	R+46.7	3,905	10,873	14,912	0.7%
Henry	29K	R+46.7	3,905	10,873	14,912	0.7%
Henry	28K	R+46.7	3,905	10,873	14,912	0.7%
Henry	28K	R+46.7	3,905	10,873	14,912	0.7%
Wyandot	23K	R+51.2	2,731	8,564	11,390	0.6%
Wyandot	22K	R+51.2	2,731	8,564	11,390	0.6%
Wyandot	22K	R+51.2	2,731	8,564	11,390	0.6%
Wyandot	22K	R+51.2	2,731	8,564	11,390	0.6%

48 countiesTotal votes: 2,065,120

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Toledo's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Toledo media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

ToledoCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 82.1%Black 8.6%Hispanic 6.0%Multiracial 1.9%Asian 1.1%

Group	Toledo	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	82.1%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)	8.6%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	6.0%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	1.9%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.1%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.9%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

46.2%(486.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	15.8%	34.1%	—	—
Catholic	15.7%	33.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	10.1%	21.9%	—	—
Other	2.3%	4.9%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.2%	4.8%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.4%	0.9%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.3%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	53.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Toledo media market? 4,291,578 residents across 48 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Toledo vs National4.3M residents

22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.3M

local

4.3MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.28%

local

1.28%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.0%

local

37.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$50,845

local

$50,845National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.5%

local

13.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.1%

local

22.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.0%

local

70.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.0 yrs

local

38.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.4%

local

12.4%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.9%

local

11.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.6%

local

2.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.4%

local

5.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

94.6%

local

94.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Toledo

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

63.7%

vs Previous

-1.3pp

Eligible Non-Voters

294K · 36.3%

Citizen VAP

810,694

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Toledo split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (10/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+14.3	R+7.5	6.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 15.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Toledo sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Michigan(State)Ohio(State)

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