How did Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+2.0. Kamala D Harris received 160,247 votes and Donald Trump received 166,714 out of 328,319 total votes cast, a 6.4-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What are the demographics of Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY?

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY has a population of 2,667,235 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 70.3% non-Hispanic white, 14.8% Hispanic, 9.9% Black. About 30% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $74,023.

Which places are most similar to Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY are Worcester, MA, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY

Q: What is Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY's political history?

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 5 and Republicans 35 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 45.6 points in 1964.

Hudson Valley corridor where bloc voting meets suburban drift

The metropolitan area spans the densely organized Haredi enclave of Kiryas Joel, where near-unanimous turnout shapes local races, and the broader mid-Hudson suburbs, where competitive margins reflect ongoing demographic and economic change.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 28880

Population2.7M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

37.9y▼ 1.0

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

30.4%▼ 4.6

White70.3%
Hispanic14.8%
Black9.9%
Other6.1%
Two or more5.0%
Asian2.8%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NYBaseline

Cycle2024

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Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Worcester, MA, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ.

8 visible matches

Worcester, MA

Educated rural democratic

D+9.9

Similarity score95%

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Diverse rural democratic

D+20.4

Similarity score93%

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

Educated rural competitive 2

R+5.2

Similarity score93%

Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Educated rural competitive 2

D+21.4

Similarity score91%

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+15.3

Similarity score91%

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Educated rural competitive 2

D+16.3

Similarity score90%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+23.3

Similarity score90%

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

Diverse rural democratic

D+16.8

Similarity score89%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Orange	407K	R+8.4	80,253	94,936	175,660	13.4%
Orange	377K	R+8.4	80,253	94,936	175,660	13.4%
Orange	376K	R+8.4	80,253	94,936	175,660	13.4%
Orange	341K	R+8.4	80,253	94,936	175,660	13.4%
Dutchess	298K	D+5.4	79,994	71,778	152,659	11.6%
Dutchess	296K	D+5.4	79,994	71,778	152,659	11.6%
Dutchess	292K	D+5.4	79,994	71,778	152,659	11.6%
Dutchess	280K	D+5.4	79,994	71,778	152,659	11.6%

8 countiesTotal votes: 1,313,276

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NYCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 70.3%Hispanic 14.8%Black 9.9%Asian 2.8%Multiracial 1.8%Native American 0.4%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	70.3%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	14.8%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)	9.9%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	2.8%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.8%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.8%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)	0.4%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

45.5%(320.7K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +49.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	28.2%	62.0%	—	—
Other	8.6%	18.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.0%	8.8%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	3.8%	8.4%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.7%	1.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.1%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	54.5%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY metro area? 2,667,235 residents across 8 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY vs National2.7M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.7M

local

2.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.80%

local

0.80%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.6%

local

37.6%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$74,023

local

$74,023National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.3%

local

10.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

30.4%

local

30.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

69.0%

local

69.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.9 yrs

local

37.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.3%

local

12.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.7%

local

10.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.8%

local

10.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.8%

local

19.8%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

80.2%

local

80.2%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

64.3%

vs Previous

+1.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

182K · 35.7%

Citizen VAP

510,567

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (6/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+2.0	D+8.8	10.8pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 16.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.

New York(State)

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