How did Lexington-Fayette, KY vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Lexington-Fayette, KY voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+1.4. Kamala D Harris received 117,200 votes and Donald Trump received 120,601 out of 242,804 total votes cast, a 3.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Lexington-Fayette, KY's political history?

Lexington-Fayette, KY has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 21 and Republicans 19 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 75.8 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of Lexington-Fayette, KY?

Lexington-Fayette, KY has a population of 1,881,672 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 78.9% non-Hispanic white, 5.5% Hispanic, 10.6% Black. About 36% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $54,273.

Which places are most similar to Lexington-Fayette, KY?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Lexington-Fayette, KY are Columbus, OH, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Lexington-Fayette, KY

Home to UK and horse country, yet increasingly competitive at the margins

Lexington anchors the Bluegrass region as Kentucky's second-largest metro, where a large university population and white-collar professional growth have gradually narrowed margins that once ran heavily in one direction.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 30460

Population1.9M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

35.4y▼ 3.5

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

35.7%▲ 0.7

White78.9%
Black10.6%
Hispanic5.5%
Two or more3.5%
Asian2.4%
Other2.1%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Lexington-Fayette, KYBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Columbus, OH, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, and Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN.

8 visible matches

Columbus, OH

Educated rural competitive 2

D+5.0

Similarity score93%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.9

Similarity score93%

Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.4

Similarity score92%

Lincoln, NE

Educated rural competitive

D+1.5

Similarity score92%

Columbia, MO

Educated rural competitive

D+2.4

Similarity score91%

Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

Educated rural competitive 2

D+21.4

Similarity score91%

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+17.5

Similarity score91%

Rochester, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+8.5

Similarity score91%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Lexington-Fayette, KY

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Fayette	324K	D+18.1	83,387	57,347	143,935	14.8%
Fayette	312K	D+18.1	83,387	57,347	143,935	14.8%
Fayette	288K	D+18.1	83,387	57,347	143,935	14.8%
Fayette	261K	D+18.1	83,387	57,347	143,935	14.8%
Scott	60K	R+27.7	10,501	18,747	29,769	3.1%
Jessamine	55K	R+35.8	8,303	17,854	26,685	2.7%
Scott	51K	R+27.7	10,501	18,747	29,769	3.1%
Jessamine	51K	R+35.8	8,303	17,854	26,685	2.7%
Jessamine	46K	R+35.8	8,303	17,854	26,685	2.7%
Scott	43K	R+27.7	10,501	18,747	29,769	3.1%
Jessamine	39K	R+35.8	8,303	17,854	26,685	2.7%
Clark	37K	R+35.3	5,639	11,950	17,885	1.8%
Clark	36K	R+35.3	5,639	11,950	17,885	1.8%
Clark	35K	R+35.3	5,639	11,950	17,885	1.8%
Clark	33K	R+35.3	5,639	11,950	17,885	1.8%
Scott	33K	R+27.7	10,501	18,747	29,769	3.1%
Woodford	27K	R+14.3	6,282	8,419	14,993	1.5%
Woodford	26K	R+14.3	6,282	8,419	14,993	1.5%
Woodford	24K	R+14.3	6,282	8,419	14,993	1.5%
Woodford	23K	R+14.3	6,282	8,419	14,993	1.5%
Bourbon	20K	R+33.5	3,088	6,284	9,537	1.0%
Bourbon	20K	R+33.5	3,088	6,284	9,537	1.0%
Bourbon	20K	R+33.5	3,088	6,284	9,537	1.0%
Bourbon	19K	R+33.5	3,088	6,284	9,537	1.0%

24 countiesTotal votes: 971,216

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Lexington-Fayette, KY's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Lexington-Fayette, KY metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Lexington-Fayette, KYCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 78.9%Black 10.6%Hispanic 5.5%Asian 2.4%Multiracial 2.4%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	78.9%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(12)	10.6%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	5.5%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.4%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.9%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

46.9%(245.3K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -49.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	26.6%	56.8%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	8.0%	17.0%	—	—
Catholic	5.7%	12.2%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.4%	7.3%	—	—
Other	3.0%	6.3%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.2%	2.5%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	53.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Lexington-Fayette, KY metro area? 1,881,672 residents across 24 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Lexington-Fayette, KY vs National1.9M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.9M

local

1.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.56%

local

0.56%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.4%

local

40.4%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$54,273

local

$54,273National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.8%

local

14.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.7%

local

35.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

59.5%

local

59.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.4 yrs

local

35.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.5%

local

15.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.2%

local

10.2%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.7%

local

6.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.3%

local

9.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

90.7%

local

90.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Lexington-Fayette, KY

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

63.4%

vs Previous

-2.1pp

Eligible Non-Voters

140K · 36.6%

Citizen VAP

383,189

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Lexington-Fayette, KY split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (31/100)

2020 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+2.2	D+3.9	1.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 12.9pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Lexington-Fayette, KY sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Kentucky(State)

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