How did Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+17.5. Kamala D Harris received 378,720 votes and Donald Trump received 542,365 out of 935,590 total votes cast, a 6.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What are the demographics of Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN?

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN has a population of 6,856,292 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 73.6% non-Hispanic white, 6.8% Hispanic, 14.7% Black. About 33% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $63,190.

Which places are most similar to Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN are Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN, Jacksonville, FL, Columbus, OH. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Q: What is Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN's political history?

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2004. The largest single-election swing was 54.8 points in 1976.

A booming Sun Belt metro where in-migration is reshaping the electorate

Nashville's metro has absorbed hundreds of thousands of new residents since 2010, compressing Republican margins in Davidson County's suburbs even as the city core votes reliably Democratic by double digits.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 34980

Population6.9M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

36.1y▼ 2.8

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

32.8%▼ 2.2

White73.6%
Black14.7%
Hispanic6.8%
Two or more3.8%
Asian2.3%
Other2.3%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TNBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN, Jacksonville, FL, and Columbus, OH.

8 visible matches

Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.4

Similarity score96%

Jacksonville, FL

Educated rural competitive 2

R+18.3

Similarity score94%

Columbus, OH

Educated rural competitive 2

D+5.0

Similarity score94%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Educated rural competitive 2

D+13.7

Similarity score93%

Boise City, ID

Educated rural competitive 2

R+22.6

Similarity score93%

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Educated rural competitive 2

R+6.4

Similarity score93%

Oklahoma City, OK

Educated rural competitive 2

R+18.1

Similarity score92%

Birmingham, AL

Educated rural competitive 2

R+19.8

Similarity score91%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Davidson	715K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	7.8%
Davidson	668K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	7.8%
Davidson	621K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	7.8%
Davidson	570K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	7.8%
Rutherford	361K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	3.9%
Rutherford	290K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	3.9%
Williamson	260K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	3.9%
Rutherford	240K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	3.9%
Williamson	206K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	3.9%
Sumner	204K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	2.6%
Rutherford	182K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	3.9%
Sumner	173K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	2.6%
Williamson	166K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	3.9%
Wilson	159K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	2.2%
Sumner	152K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	2.6%
Sumner	130K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	2.6%
Williamson	127K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	3.9%
Wilson	126K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	2.2%
Maury	108K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	1.4%
Wilson	106K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	2.2%
Wilson	89K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	2.2%
Maury	86K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	1.4%
Maury	80K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	1.4%
Robertson	76K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.9%
Maury	69K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	1.4%
Robertson	68K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.9%
Robertson	64K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.9%
Dickson	56K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.7%
Robertson	54K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.9%
Dickson	51K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.7%
Dickson	47K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.7%
Dickson	43K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.7%
Cheatham	42K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.6%
Cheatham	40K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.6%
Cheatham	39K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.6%
Cheatham	36K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.6%
Macon	26K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.3%
Hickman	25K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.3%
Hickman	24K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.3%
Hickman	24K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.3%
Macon	23K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.3%
Hickman	22K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.3%
Macon	22K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.3%
Smith	20K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Macon	20K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.3%
Smith	19K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Smith	19K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Smith	18K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Cannon	15K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.2%
Cannon	14K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.2%
Cannon	14K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.2%
Cannon	13K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.2%
Trousdale	12K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Trousdale	8K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Trousdale	8K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Trousdale	7K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%

56 countiesTotal votes: 3,742,360

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TNCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 73.6%Black 14.7%Hispanic 6.8%Asian 2.3%Multiracial 2.3%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	73.6%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(13)	14.7%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	6.8%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	2.3%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.3%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	1.2%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

50.0%(1.0M people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -51.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	29.2%	58.4%	—	—
Catholic	5.9%	11.8%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.8%	11.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	5.0%	10.0%	—	—
Other	3.1%	6.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	1.0%	2.0%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	1.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	50.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN metro area? 6,856,292 residents across 56 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN vs National6.9M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.9M

local

6.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.05%

local

2.05%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.3%

local

42.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$63,190

local

$63,190National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

32.8%

local

32.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

66.5%

local

66.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.1 yrs

local

36.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.5%

local

13.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.9%

local

9.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.3%

local

7.3%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.0%

local

10.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

90.0%

local

90.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

62.3%

vs Previous

+0.8pp

Eligible Non-Voters

566K · 37.7%

Citizen VAP

1,501,713

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (1/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+17.5	R+16.9	0.6pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 17.0pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Tennessee(State)

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