Baylor's home anchors a mid-size metro trending toward suburban growth
The Waco metro has long leaned conservative in federal contests, but steady in-migration tied to Baylor University and light manufacturing diversification is gradually reshaping its voter age and educational profile.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLennan | 266K | R+30.8 | 33,863 | 64,606 | 99,672 | 21.6% |
| McLennan | 243K | R+30.8 | 33,863 | 64,606 | 99,672 | 21.6% |
| McLennan | 228K | R+30.8 | 33,863 | 64,606 | 99,672 | 21.6% |
| McLennan | 214K | R+30.8 | 33,863 | 64,606 | 99,672 | 21.6% |
| Bosque | 19K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 2.1% |
| Falls | 19K | R+44.7 | 1,713 | 4,520 | 6,277 | 1.4% |
| Bosque | 18K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 2.1% |
| Bosque | 18K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 2.1% |
| Falls | 17K | R+44.7 | 1,713 | 4,520 | 6,277 | 1.4% |
| Falls | 17K | R+44.7 | 1,713 | 4,520 | 6,277 | 1.4% |
| Bosque | 17K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 2.1% |
| Falls | 17K | R+44.7 | 1,713 | 4,520 | 6,277 | 1.4% |
| Group | Waco, TX | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 59.9% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 22.5% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(10) | 14.3% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.4% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.4% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -20.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.9% | 48.7% | — | — | |
| 18.4% | 33.2% | — | — | |
| 5.7% | 10.3% | — | — | |
| 2.2% | 4.0% | — | — | |
| 2.1% | 3.7% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.5% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 44.6% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Waco, TX metro area? 1,093,091 residents across 12 counties.
22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+34.6 | R+30.2 | 4.4pp |