A mid-sized rust-belt market where margins routinely decide statewide outcomes
Erie's media market spans northwestern Pennsylvania into Ohio and New York, and its blue-collar electorate has swung between parties by single digits in consecutive cycles, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide Pennsylvania results.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie | 281K | R+1.0 | 67,456 | 68,866 | 137,595 | 17.1% |
| Erie | 280K | R+1.0 | 67,456 | 68,866 | 137,595 | 17.1% |
| Erie | 279K | R+1.0 | 67,456 | 68,866 | 137,595 | 17.1% |
| Erie | 269K | R+1.0 | 67,456 | 68,866 | 137,595 | 17.1% |
| Crawford | 90K | R+39.3 | 12,858 | 29,685 | 42,872 | 5.3% |
| Crawford | 89K | R+39.3 | 12,858 | 29,685 | 42,872 | 5.3% |
| Crawford | 87K | R+39.3 | 12,858 | 29,685 | 42,872 | 5.3% |
| Crawford | 83K | R+39.3 | 12,858 | 29,685 | 42,872 | 5.3% |
| Warren | 44K | R+39.3 | 6,212 | 14,345 | 20,723 | 2.6% |
| Warren | 41K | R+39.3 | 6,212 | 14,345 | 20,723 | 2.6% |
| Warren | 41K | R+39.3 | 6,212 | 14,345 | 20,723 | 2.6% |
| Warren | 38K | R+39.3 | 6,212 | 14,345 | 20,723 | 2.6% |
| Group | Erie | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 89.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 4.9% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 2.6% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3% | 39.0% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 26.9% | — | — | |
| 10.6% | 26.9% | — | — | |
| 1.7% | 4.4% | — | — | |
| 1.0% | 2.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.3% | 0.7% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 60.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Erie media market? 1,621,125 residents across 12 counties.
23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+13.1 | R+9.9 | 3.2pp |