How did Flint-Saginaw-Bay City vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+11.0. Kamala D Harris received 277,075 votes and Donald Trump received 346,720 out of 632,806 total votes cast, a 4.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Flint-Saginaw-Bay City's political history?

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 10 and Republicans 30 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 56.2 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Flint-Saginaw-Bay City?

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City has a population of 4,665,619 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 81.4% non-Hispanic white, 3.9% Hispanic, 11.0% Black. About 19% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $47,400.

Which places are most similar to Flint-Saginaw-Bay City?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Flint-Saginaw-Bay City are Bangor, Traverse City-Cadillac, Wausau-Rhinelander. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

A post-industrial Michigan corridor where union heritage meets demographic shift

This mid-Michigan media market anchors Genesee, Saginaw, and Bay counties, where decades of auto-industry contraction have reshaped an electorate that swung between parties by single digits in recent statewide cycles.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 513

Population4.7M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

39.3y▲ 0.4

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

19.4%▼ 15.6

White81.4%
Black11.0%
Hispanic3.9%
Two or more3.0%
Other1.0%
Asian0.9%
Native0.5%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Flint-Saginaw-Bay CityBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Bangor, Traverse City-Cadillac, and Wausau-Rhinelander.

8 visible matches

Bangor

Small-town rural republican 2

R+9.4

Similarity score90%

Traverse City-Cadillac

Small-town rural republican 2

R+22.9

Similarity score89%

Wausau-Rhinelander

Small-town rural republican 2

R+19.2

Similarity score88%

Marquette

Small-town rural republican 2

R+16.7

Similarity score86%

Davenport-R.Island-Moline

Small-town rural republican 3

R+11.5

Similarity score86%

Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hztn

Small-town rural republican 2

R+24.5

Similarity score86%

Alpena

Small-town rural republican 2

R+32.6

Similarity score85%

Erie

Small-town rural republican 2

R+13.1

Similarity score85%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Genesee	436K	D+4.2	114,670	105,303	223,268	8.8%
Genesee	433K	D+4.2	114,670	105,303	223,268	8.8%
Genesee	413K	D+4.2	114,670	105,303	223,268	8.8%
Genesee	403K	D+4.2	114,670	105,303	223,268	8.8%
Saginaw	210K	R+3.3	49,515	52,912	103,846	4.1%
Saginaw	203K	R+3.3	49,515	52,912	103,846	4.1%
Saginaw	195K	R+3.3	49,515	52,912	103,846	4.1%
Saginaw	189K	R+3.3	49,515	52,912	103,846	4.1%
Bay	110K	R+14.7	25,767	34,792	61,338	2.4%
Bay	108K	R+14.7	25,767	34,792	61,338	2.4%
Bay	106K	R+14.7	25,767	34,792	61,338	2.4%
Bay	103K	R+14.7	25,767	34,792	61,338	2.4%
Midland	84K	R+15.2	20,926	28,571	50,301	2.0%
Midland	84K	R+15.2	20,926	28,571	50,301	2.0%
Midland	83K	R+15.2	20,926	28,571	50,301	2.0%
Midland	83K	R+15.2	20,926	28,571	50,301	2.0%
Shiawassee	72K	R+23.1	15,335	24,718	40,685	1.6%
Shiawassee	71K	R+23.1	15,335	24,718	40,685	1.6%
Isabella	71K	R+7.5	14,011	16,320	30,835	1.2%
Shiawassee	69K	R+23.1	15,335	24,718	40,685	1.6%
Shiawassee	68K	R+23.1	15,335	24,718	40,685	1.6%
Isabella	67K	R+7.5	14,011	16,320	30,835	1.2%
Isabella	65K	R+7.5	14,011	16,320	30,835	1.2%
Isabella	63K	R+7.5	14,011	16,320	30,835	1.2%
Tuscola	58K	R+43.0	8,562	21,764	30,717	1.2%
Tuscola	57K	R+43.0	8,562	21,764	30,717	1.2%
Tuscola	54K	R+43.0	8,562	21,764	30,717	1.2%
Tuscola	53K	R+43.0	8,562	21,764	30,717	1.2%
Gratiot	42K	R+31.3	6,682	12,894	19,848	0.8%
Gratiot	42K	R+31.3	6,682	12,894	19,848	0.8%
Gratiot	42K	R+31.3	6,682	12,894	19,848	0.8%
Gratiot	41K	R+31.3	6,682	12,894	19,848	0.8%
Huron	36K	R+40.6	5,522	13,224	18,969	0.7%
Huron	33K	R+40.6	5,522	13,224	18,969	0.7%
Huron	32K	R+40.6	5,522	13,224	18,969	0.7%
Huron	31K	R+40.6	5,522	13,224	18,969	0.7%
Iosco	27K	R+30.6	5,344	10,155	15,731	0.6%
Gladwin	26K	R+40.7	4,501	10,809	15,488	0.6%
Iosco	26K	R+30.6	5,344	10,155	15,731	0.6%
Gladwin	26K	R+40.7	4,501	10,809	15,488	0.6%
Gladwin	26K	R+40.7	4,501	10,809	15,488	0.6%
Iosco	25K	R+30.6	5,344	10,155	15,731	0.6%
Gladwin	25K	R+40.7	4,501	10,809	15,488	0.6%
Iosco	25K	R+30.6	5,344	10,155	15,731	0.6%
Ogemaw	22K	R+42.0	3,578	8,879	12,622	0.5%
Ogemaw	21K	R+42.0	3,578	8,879	12,622	0.5%
Ogemaw	21K	R+42.0	3,578	8,879	12,622	0.5%
Ogemaw	21K	R+42.0	3,578	8,879	12,622	0.5%
Arenac	17K	R+40.6	2,662	6,379	9,158	0.4%
Arenac	17K	R+40.6	2,662	6,379	9,158	0.4%
Arenac	15K	R+40.6	2,662	6,379	9,158	0.4%
Arenac	15K	R+40.6	2,662	6,379	9,158	0.4%

52 countiesTotal votes: 2,531,224

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Flint-Saginaw-Bay City's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Flint-Saginaw-Bay CityCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 81.4%Black 11.0%Hispanic 3.9%Multiracial 2.2%Asian 0.9%Native American 0.5%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	81.4%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(10)	11.0%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	3.9%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	2.2%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	0.9%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.6%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.5%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

39.4%(443.3K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -12.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	15.8%	40.1%	—	—
Catholic	12.5%	31.8%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.4%	11.1%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.9%	9.9%	—	—
Other	2.6%	6.7%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	60.5%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Flint-Saginaw-Bay City media market? 4,665,619 residents across 52 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Flint-Saginaw-Bay City vs National4.7M residents

19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.7M

local

4.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.39%

local

1.39%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.2%

local

37.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$47,400

local

$47,400National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.8%

local

15.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.4%

local

19.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.9%

local

74.9%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.3 yrs

local

39.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.7%

local

12.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.1%

local

2.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.0%

local

4.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

96.0%

local

96.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

71.9%

vs Previous

+1.5pp

Eligible Non-Voters

248K · 28.1%

Citizen VAP

880,714

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Flint-Saginaw-Bay City split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (51/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+11.0	R+7.7	3.4pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 9.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Flint-Saginaw-Bay City sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Michigan(State)

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