How did Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+20.4. Kamala D Harris received 438,156 votes and Donald Trump received 664,998 out of 1,114,515 total votes cast, a 0.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What are the demographics of Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York?

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York has a population of 7,759,109 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 84.4% non-Hispanic white, 6.5% Hispanic, 5.4% Black. About 25% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $60,639.

Which places are most similar to Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York are Green Bay-Appleton, Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk, Wausau-Rhinelander. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York

Q: What is Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York's political history?

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The largest single-election swing was 52.3 points in 1932.

Pennsylvania's T-region anchor, where suburban drift reshapes old margins

Stretching across south-central Pennsylvania's mix of mid-sized cities and deep-rural townships, this market has historically leaned Republican but seen competitive tightening as Lancaster and York suburbs diversify and commuter populations grow.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 566

Population7.8M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

39.5y▲ 0.6

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

24.6%▼ 10.4

White84.4%
Hispanic6.5%
Black5.4%
Two or more3.1%
Other2.5%
Asian1.9%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-YorkBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Green Bay-Appleton, Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk, and Wausau-Rhinelander.

8 visible matches

Green Bay-Appleton

Small-town rural republican 3

R+17.3

Similarity score90%

Grand Rapids-Kalmzoo-B.Crk

Small-town rural republican 3

R+8.6

Similarity score86%

Wausau-Rhinelander

Small-town rural republican 2

R+19.2

Similarity score85%

Rochestr-Mason City-Austin

Small-town rural republican 3

R+8.0

Similarity score83%

Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hztn

Small-town rural republican 2

R+24.5

Similarity score83%

Peoria-Bloomington

Small-town rural republican 3

R+12.3

Similarity score83%

Traverse City-Cadillac

Small-town rural republican 2

R+22.9

Similarity score81%

Johnstown-Altoona-State College

Small-town rural republican

R+39.0

Similarity score80%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Lancaster	558K	R+15.9	120,119	166,261	289,257	6.5%
Lancaster	533K	R+15.9	120,119	166,261	289,257	6.5%
Lancaster	499K	R+15.9	120,119	166,261	289,257	6.5%
Lancaster	471K	R+15.9	120,119	166,261	289,257	6.5%
York	463K	R+25.3	91,926	154,884	249,210	5.6%
York	441K	R+25.3	91,926	154,884	249,210	5.6%
York	420K	R+25.3	91,926	154,884	249,210	5.6%
York	382K	R+25.3	91,926	154,884	249,210	5.6%
Dauphin	290K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	3.4%
Dauphin	272K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	3.4%
Cumberland	268K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	3.3%
Dauphin	256K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	3.4%
Dauphin	252K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	3.4%
Cumberland	244K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	3.3%
Cumberland	228K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	3.3%
Cumberland	214K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	3.3%
Franklin	157K	R+43.0	23,543	59,604	83,884	1.9%
Franklin	153K	R+43.0	23,543	59,604	83,884	1.9%
Lebanon	144K	R+31.9	24,734	48,282	73,692	1.7%
Franklin	142K	R+43.0	23,543	59,604	83,884	1.9%
Lebanon	137K	R+31.9	24,734	48,282	73,692	1.7%
Franklin	129K	R+43.0	23,543	59,604	83,884	1.9%
Lebanon	128K	R+31.9	24,734	48,282	73,692	1.7%
Lebanon	120K	R+31.9	24,734	48,282	73,692	1.7%
Adams	106K	R+33.6	19,842	40,248	60,650	1.4%
Adams	102K	R+33.6	19,842	40,248	60,650	1.4%
Adams	101K	R+33.6	19,842	40,248	60,650	1.4%
Adams	91K	R+33.6	19,842	40,248	60,650	1.4%
Mifflin	47K	R+56.4	4,735	17,184	22,071	0.5%
Mifflin	46K	R+56.4	4,735	17,184	22,071	0.5%
Perry	46K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	0.6%
Mifflin	46K	R+56.4	4,735	17,184	22,071	0.5%
Mifflin	46K	R+56.4	4,735	17,184	22,071	0.5%
Perry	46K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	0.6%
Perry	45K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	0.6%
Perry	44K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	0.6%
Juniata	25K	R+61.4	2,290	9,721	12,104	0.3%
Juniata	23K	R+61.4	2,290	9,721	12,104	0.3%
Juniata	23K	R+61.4	2,290	9,721	12,104	0.3%
Juniata	23K	R+61.4	2,290	9,721	12,104	0.3%

40 countiesTotal votes: 4,458,060

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-YorkCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 84.4%Hispanic 6.5%Black 5.4%Asian 1.9%Multiracial 1.6%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	84.4%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	6.5%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)	5.4%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	1.9%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.6%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

40.0%(841.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -20.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	16.0%	40.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	11.2%	28.0%	—	—
Catholic	9.6%	23.8%	—	—
Other	2.3%	5.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.7%	1.9%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.6%	1.5%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.3%	0.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	60.0%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York media market? 7,759,109 residents across 40 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York vs National7.8M residents

25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.8M

local

7.8MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.32%

local

2.32%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.7%

local

39.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$60,639

local

$60,639National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.2%

local

9.2%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

24.6%

local

24.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

71.8%

local

71.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.5 yrs

local

39.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.5%

local

11.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.1%

local

13.1%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.2%

local

4.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.0%

local

10.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

90.0%

local

90.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

69.9%

vs Previous

+2.4pp

Eligible Non-Voters

480K · 30.1%

Citizen VAP

1,594,288

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (77/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+20.4	R+18.7	1.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 5.5pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Pennsylvania(State)

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