How did Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+5.1. Kamala D Harris received 292,089 votes and Donald Trump received 263,452 out of 558,981 total votes cast, a 5.2-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY's political history?

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976. The largest single-election swing was 39.9 points in 1960.

What are the demographics of Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY?

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY has a population of 4,595,770 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 79.0% non-Hispanic white, 4.2% Hispanic, 11.8% Black. About 29% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $52,702.

Which places are most similar to Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY are Syracuse, NY, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, Rochester, NY. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

Erie County's urban core where waterfront reinvention meets durable Democratic margins

Buffalo anchors a mid-size metro that has voted Democratic in presidential races by double digits for decades, even as surrounding Erie County suburbs shift enough to keep county-level margins competitive in off-cycle contests.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 15380

Population4.6M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

40y▲ 1.1

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

29.2%▼ 5.8

White79.0%
Black11.8%
Hispanic4.2%
Two or more2.8%
Asian2.6%
Other1.7%
Native0.6%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NYBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Syracuse, NY, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY, and Rochester, NY.

8 visible matches

Syracuse, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+6.9

Similarity score94%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.9

Similarity score94%

Rochester, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+8.5

Similarity score93%

Worcester, MA

Educated rural democratic

D+9.9

Similarity score91%

Charleston-North Charleston, SC

Educated rural competitive 2

R+4.3

Similarity score90%

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

Educated rural competitive 2

D+7.1

Similarity score90%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+23.3

Similarity score90%

Burlington-South Burlington, VT

Educated rural democratic

D+41.5

Similarity score89%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Erie	951K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	20.4%
Erie	950K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	20.4%
Erie	922K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	20.4%
Erie	914K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	20.4%
Niagara	220K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	4.6%
Niagara	215K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	4.6%
Niagara	213K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	4.6%
Niagara	211K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	4.6%

8 countiesTotal votes: 2,235,924

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NYCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 79.0%Black 11.8%Hispanic 4.2%Asian 2.6%Multiracial 1.8%Native American 0.6%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	79.0%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)	11.8%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	4.2%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	2.6%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.8%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	1.1%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.6%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

64.7%(751.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +51.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	43.5%	67.3%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	7.2%	11.1%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.0%	7.7%	—	—
Other	4.9%	7.5%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.8%	5.8%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.4%	0.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.4%	0.6%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	35.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro area? 4,595,770 residents across 8 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY vs National4.6M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.6M

local

4.6MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.37%

local

1.37%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.4%

local

38.4%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$52,702

local

$52,702National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.4%

local

13.4%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.2%

local

29.2%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

66.7%

local

66.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.0 yrs

local

40.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.9%

local

11.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.9%

local

12.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.7%

local

5.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.0%

local

9.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

91.0%

local

91.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

62.2%

vs Previous

-2.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

340K · 37.8%

Citizen VAP

898,936

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+5.1	D+10.3	5.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 18.7pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.

New York(State)

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