A manufacturing-to-services pivot reshapes Black Hawk County's ballot
Anchored by Waterloo and Cedar Falls, this metro pairs a historically union-heavy industrial core with a college-town precincts around the University of Northern Iowa, producing persistent intra-metro splits that have made it a genuine swing bellwether in statewide races.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Hawk | 133K | D+1.2 | 31,299 | 30,572 | 62,906 | 18.6% |
| Black Hawk | 131K | D+1.2 | 31,299 | 30,572 | 62,906 | 18.6% |
| Black Hawk | 128K | D+1.2 | 31,299 | 30,572 | 62,906 | 18.6% |
| Black Hawk | 127K | D+1.2 | 31,299 | 30,572 | 62,906 | 18.6% |
| Bremer | 25K | R+22.1 | 5,571 | 8,799 | 14,607 | 4.3% |
| Bremer | 25K | R+22.1 | 5,571 | 8,799 | 14,607 | 4.3% |
| Bremer | 24K | R+22.1 | 5,571 | 8,799 | 14,607 | 4.3% |
| Bremer | 23K | R+22.1 | 5,571 | 8,799 | 14,607 | 4.3% |
| Grundy | 12K | R+41.7 | 2,019 | 4,998 | 7,146 | 2.1% |
| Grundy | 12K | R+41.7 | 2,019 | 4,998 | 7,146 | 2.1% |
| Grundy | 12K | R+41.7 | 2,019 | 4,998 | 7,146 | 2.1% |
| Grundy | 12K | R+41.7 | 2,019 | 4,998 | 7,146 | 2.1% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 86.3% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 6.8% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 3.0% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.0% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.5% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.8% | 37.0% | — | — | |
| 13.6% | 26.9% | — | — | |
| 9.7% | 19.1% | — | — | |
| 5.6% | 11.0% | — | — | |
| 3.0% | 5.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 1.6% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 49.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA metro area? 665,240 residents across 12 counties.
26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+6.0 | R+13.6 | 7.5pp |