How did Rochester, NY vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Rochester, NY voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+9.7. Kamala D Harris received 277,882 votes and Donald Trump received 228,325 out of 508,722 total votes cast, a 2.3-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Rochester, NY's political history?

Rochester, NY has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 49.6 points in 1964.

What are the demographics of Rochester, NY?

Rochester, NY has a population of 4,117,072 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 78.0% non-Hispanic white, 6.3% Hispanic, 11.1% Black. About 33% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $57,105.

Which places are most similar to Rochester, NY?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Rochester, NY are Syracuse, Charlottesville, Madison. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Rochester, NY

A mid-size upstate market where city-suburban splits drive Monroe County's swing potential.

Rochester's media market anchors Monroe County, a bellwether that has tracked closely with statewide margins while its urban core and outer-ring suburbs increasingly diverge in turnout patterns and party preference.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 538

Population4.1M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

38.9y— 0.0

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

33.1%▼ 1.9

White78.0%
Black11.1%
Hispanic6.3%
Two or more3.4%
Asian2.5%
Other2.2%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Rochester, NYBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Syracuse, Charlottesville, and Madison.

8 visible matches

Syracuse

Educated rural competitive

D+8.5

Similarity score93%

Charlottesville

Educated rural competitive

D+17.6

Similarity score93%

Madison

Educated rural competitive

D+28.2

Similarity score90%

Baltimore

Educated rural competitive

D+20.2

Similarity score89%

Springfield-Holyoke

Educated rural competitive

D+20.8

Similarity score88%

Eugene

Educated rural competitive

D+10.5

Similarity score86%

Bend, OR

Small-town rural republican 2

D+10.4

Similarity score86%

Detroit

Educated rural competitive

D+8.5

Similarity score86%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Rochester, NY

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Monroe	754K	D+19.0	214,757	145,940	362,715	17.8%
Monroe	749K	D+19.0	214,757	145,940	362,715	17.8%
Monroe	735K	D+19.0	214,757	145,940	362,715	17.8%
Monroe	732K	D+19.0	214,757	145,940	362,715	17.8%
Ontario	113K	R+1.2	29,520	30,221	59,987	2.9%
Ontario	109K	R+1.2	29,520	30,221	59,987	2.9%
Ontario	104K	R+1.2	29,520	30,221	59,987	2.9%
Ontario	100K	R+1.2	29,520	30,221	59,987	2.9%
Wayne	94K	R+23.0	17,056	27,286	44,443	2.2%
Wayne	92K	R+23.0	17,056	27,286	44,443	2.2%
Wayne	92K	R+23.0	17,056	27,286	44,443	2.2%
Wayne	91K	R+23.0	17,056	27,286	44,443	2.2%
Livingston	65K	R+21.4	12,148	18,780	31,035	1.5%
Livingston	64K	R+21.4	12,148	18,780	31,035	1.5%
Livingston	63K	R+21.4	12,148	18,780	31,035	1.5%
Livingston	61K	R+21.4	12,148	18,780	31,035	1.5%
Yates	25K	R+16.1	4,401	6,098	10,542	0.5%
Yates	25K	R+16.1	4,401	6,098	10,542	0.5%
Yates	25K	R+16.1	4,401	6,098	10,542	0.5%
Yates	25K	R+16.1	4,401	6,098	10,542	0.5%

20 countiesTotal votes: 2,034,888

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Rochester, NY's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Rochester, NY media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Rochester, NYCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 78.0%Black 11.1%Hispanic 6.3%Asian 2.5%Multiracial 1.9%

Group	Rochester, NY	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	78.0%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(16)	11.1%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	6.3%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	2.5%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.9%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.8%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

47.4%(494.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +34.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	26.4%	55.7%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	7.7%	16.3%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	6.1%	12.9%	—	—
Other	5.5%	11.7%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.2%	2.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	1.7%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.4%	0.8%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	52.6%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Rochester, NY media market? 4,117,072 residents across 20 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Rochester, NY vs National4.1M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.1M

local

4.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.23%

local

1.23%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.2%

local

38.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$57,105

local

$57,105National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.4%

local

12.4%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.1%

local

33.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

67.8%

local

67.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.9 yrs

local

38.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.5%

local

12.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.3%

local

12.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.5%

local

6.5%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.6%

local

10.6%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

89.4%

local

89.4%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Rochester, NY

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

62.9%

vs Previous

-2.3pp

Eligible Non-Voters

301K · 37.1%

Citizen VAP

809,244

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Rochester, NY split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (25/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+9.7	D+12.0	2.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 13.7pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Rochester, NY sits inside these higher-level geographies.

New York(State)

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