Shenandoah Valley market anchored by a major university town
Harrisonburg's media market spans a conservative rural Shenandoah Valley base softened by James Madison University's student and faculty population, producing a competitive mix that keeps margins tighter than surrounding Virginia districts typically suggest.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockingham | 86K | R+37.0 | 15,035 | 33,033 | 48,581 | 8.8% |
| Rockingham | 78K | R+37.0 | 15,035 | 33,033 | 48,581 | 8.8% |
| Augusta | 78K | R+47.5 | 11,403 | 32,429 | 44,223 | 8.0% |
| Augusta | 74K | R+47.5 | 11,403 | 32,429 | 44,223 | 8.0% |
| Rockingham | 74K | R+37.0 | 15,035 | 33,033 | 48,581 | 8.8% |
| Augusta | 71K | R+47.5 | 11,403 | 32,429 | 44,223 | 8.0% |
| Rockingham | 68K | R+37.0 | 15,035 | 33,033 | 48,581 | 8.8% |
| Augusta | 66K | R+47.5 | 11,403 | 32,429 | 44,223 | 8.0% |
| Harrisonburg City | 52K | D+25.4 | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,245 | 3.1% |
| Harrisonburg City | 51K | D+25.4 | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,245 | 3.1% |
| Harrisonburg City | 44K | D+25.4 | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,245 | 3.1% |
| Harrisonburg City | 40K | D+25.4 | 10,641 | 6,266 | 17,245 | 3.1% |
| Staunton City | 26K | D+13.4 | 7,592 | 5,778 | 13,562 | 2.5% |
| Staunton City | 24K | D+13.4 | 7,592 | 5,778 | 13,562 | 2.5% |
| Staunton City | 24K | D+13.4 | 7,592 | 5,778 | 13,562 | 2.5% |
| Staunton City | 24K | D+13.4 | 7,592 | 5,778 | 13,562 | 2.5% |
| Waynesboro City | 23K | R+5.7 | 5,240 | 5,882 | 11,274 | 2.0% |
| Waynesboro City | 22K | R+5.7 | 5,240 | 5,882 | 11,274 | 2.0% |
| Waynesboro City | 21K | R+5.7 | 5,240 | 5,882 | 11,274 | 2.0% |
| Waynesboro City | 20K | R+5.7 | 5,240 | 5,882 | 11,274 | 2.0% |
| Pendleton | 8K | R+58.6 | 680 | 2,687 | 3,425 | 0.6% |
| Pendleton | 8K | R+58.6 | 680 | 2,687 | 3,425 | 0.6% |
| Pendleton | 7K | R+58.6 | 680 | 2,687 | 3,425 | 0.6% |
| Pendleton | 6K | R+58.6 | 680 | 2,687 | 3,425 | 0.6% |
| Group | Harrisonburg | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 85.0% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 6.5% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 5.2% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.7% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.2% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.5% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -51.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.1% | 57.0% | — | — | |
| 12.6% | 25.5% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 9.9% | — | — | |
| 2.9% | 5.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.9% | — | — |
| 0.5% | 1.1% | — | — | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 50.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Harrisonburg media market? 994,326 residents across 24 counties.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+21.8 | R+55.3 | 33.5pp |
| President vs Governor | R+25.7 | R+55.3 | 29.6pp |
| President vs Senate | R+25.7 | R+21.8 | 3.9pp |