How did Tucson (Sierra Vista) vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Tucson (Sierra Vista) voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+11.4. Kamala D Harris received 326,011 votes and Donald Trump received 258,304 out of 593,589 total votes cast, a 4.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Tucson (Sierra Vista)'s political history?

Tucson (Sierra Vista) has 29 presidential elections on record, spanning 1912 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. The largest single-election swing was 48.0 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Tucson (Sierra Vista)?

Tucson (Sierra Vista) has a population of 4,573,302 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 54.0% non-Hispanic white, 35.6% Hispanic, 3.3% Black. About 30% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $50,216.

Which places are most similar to Tucson (Sierra Vista)?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Tucson (Sierra Vista) are SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb, Springfield-Holyoke, Eureka. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Tucson (Sierra Vista)

A Sun Belt market where rapid growth meets a heavy military footprint

Fort Huachuca anchors Sierra Vista's economy and voter base, while Tucson's expanding Latino electorate and University of Arizona enrollment make this media market one of the more demographically complex in the Southwest.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 789

Population4.6M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

37.9y▼ 1.0

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

29.8%▼ 5.2

White54.0%
Hispanic35.6%
Other11.2%
Two or more8.7%
Black3.3%
Native2.8%
Asian2.4%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Tucson (Sierra Vista)Baseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb, Springfield-Holyoke, and Eureka.

8 visible matches

SantaBarbra-SanMar-SanLuOb

Educated rural democratic

D+19.6

Similarity score90%

Springfield-Holyoke

Educated rural competitive

D+20.8

Similarity score87%

Eureka

Educated rural competitive

D+22.1

Similarity score85%

Monterey-Salinas

Educated rural democratic

D+39.0

Similarity score85%

San Diego

Educated rural democratic

D+16.8

Similarity score83%

Phoenix (Prescott)

Educated rural competitive

R+9.1

Similarity score82%

Eugene

Educated rural competitive

D+10.5

Similarity score80%

Los Angeles

Educated rural democratic

D+17.9

Similarity score80%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Tucson (Sierra Vista)

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Pima	1.1M	D+15.1	292,450	214,669	515,287	21.7%
Pima	1.0M	D+15.1	292,450	214,669	515,287	21.7%
Pima	990K	D+15.1	292,450	214,669	515,287	21.7%
Pima	844K	D+15.1	292,450	214,669	515,287	21.7%
Cochise	128K	R+23.1	22,296	35,936	59,135	2.5%
Cochise	128K	R+23.1	22,296	35,936	59,135	2.5%
Cochise	126K	R+23.1	22,296	35,936	59,135	2.5%
Cochise	118K	R+23.1	22,296	35,936	59,135	2.5%
Santa Cruz	49K	D+18.6	11,265	7,699	19,167	0.8%
Santa Cruz	47K	D+18.6	11,265	7,699	19,167	0.8%
Santa Cruz	43K	D+18.6	11,265	7,699	19,167	0.8%
Santa Cruz	38K	D+18.6	11,265	7,699	19,167	0.8%

12 countiesTotal votes: 2,374,356

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Tucson (Sierra Vista)'s political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Tucson (Sierra Vista) media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Tucson (Sierra Vista)Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 54.0%Hispanic 35.6%Black 3.3%Native American 2.8%Asian 2.4%Multiracial 1.7%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	54.0%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	35.6%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(14)	3.3%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(7)	2.8%	0.9%
▶Asian(6)	2.4%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.7%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.7%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

40.8%(504.3K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +21.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	20.9%	51.3%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	10.3%	25.2%	—	—
Other	6.6%	16.1%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	3.3%	8.2%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	2.2%	5.5%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.7%	1.6%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	59.2%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Tucson (Sierra Vista) media market? 4,573,302 residents across 12 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Tucson (Sierra Vista) vs National4.6M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.6M

local

4.6MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.37%

local

1.37%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.1%

local

40.1%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$50,216

local

$50,216National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.3%

local

16.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.8%

local

29.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

64.9%

local

64.9%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.9 yrs

local

37.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.7%

local

13.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.3%

local

14.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.2%

local

13.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.4%

local

29.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.6%

local

70.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Tucson (Sierra Vista)

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

64.2%

vs Previous

-0.8pp

Eligible Non-Voters

331K · 35.8%

Citizen VAP

924,895

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Tucson (Sierra Vista) split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+11.4	D+17.4	6.0pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 22.0pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Tucson (Sierra Vista) sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Arizona(State)

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