How did Phoenix (Prescott) vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Phoenix (Prescott) voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+9.1. Kamala D Harris received 1,211,154 votes and Donald Trump received 1,458,398 out of 2,706,961 total votes cast, a 5.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Phoenix (Prescott)'s political history?

Phoenix (Prescott) has 29 presidential elections on record, spanning 1912 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952. The largest single-election swing was 53.0 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Phoenix (Prescott)?

Phoenix (Prescott) has a population of 19,949,117 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 59.3% non-Hispanic white, 27.3% Hispanic, 4.2% Black. About 29% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $60,774.

Which places are most similar to Phoenix (Prescott)?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Phoenix (Prescott) are Los Angeles, Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, Austin. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Phoenix (Prescott)

High-desert retiree belt anchored by a fast-growing Prescott metro

The Prescott-centered market draws heavily from retirement in-migration across Yavapai County, producing an older, predominantly white electorate that has consistently delivered lopsided margins in statewide contests.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 753

Population19.9M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

36.6y▼ 2.3

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

28.5%▼ 6.5

White59.3%
Hispanic27.3%
Other8.3%
Two or more7.4%
Black4.2%
Native3.9%
Asian3.0%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Phoenix (Prescott)Baseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Los Angeles, Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto, and Austin.

8 visible matches

Los Angeles

Educated rural democratic

D+17.9

Similarity score85%

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

Educated rural democratic

D+5.7

Similarity score85%

Austin

Educated rural democratic

D+14.2

Similarity score83%

Dallas-Fort Worth

Educated rural democratic

R+11.9

Similarity score83%

San Diego

Educated rural democratic

D+16.8

Similarity score83%

San Antonio

Educated rural democratic

R+9.2

Similarity score83%

Tucson (Sierra Vista)

Educated rural competitive

D+11.4

Similarity score82%

Houston

Educated rural democratic

R+9.3

Similarity score82%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Phoenix (Prescott)

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Maricopa	4.6M	R+3.5	980,016	1,051,531	2,061,574	19.0%
Maricopa	4.1M	R+3.5	980,016	1,051,531	2,061,574	19.0%
Maricopa	3.9M	R+3.5	980,016	1,051,531	2,061,574	19.0%
Maricopa	3.1M	R+3.5	980,016	1,051,531	2,061,574	19.0%
Pinal	469K	R+22.0	80,656	126,926	210,173	1.9%
Pinal	398K	R+22.0	80,656	126,926	210,173	1.9%
Pinal	296K	R+22.0	80,656	126,926	210,173	1.9%
Yavapai	245K	R+33.9	48,717	99,346	149,428	1.4%
Mohave	221K	R+55.6	24,081	85,683	110,693	1.0%
Yavapai	219K	R+33.9	48,717	99,346	149,428	1.4%
Yavapai	209K	R+33.9	48,717	99,346	149,428	1.4%
Mohave	204K	R+55.6	24,081	85,683	110,693	1.0%
Mohave	193K	R+55.6	24,081	85,683	110,693	1.0%
Pinal	180K	R+22.0	80,656	126,926	210,173	1.9%
Yavapai	168K	R+33.9	48,717	99,346	149,428	1.4%
Mohave	155K	R+55.6	24,081	85,683	110,693	1.0%
Coconino	145K	D+19.8	41,504	27,576	70,374	0.6%
Coconino	138K	D+19.8	41,504	27,576	70,374	0.6%
Coconino	127K	D+19.8	41,504	27,576	70,374	0.6%
Coconino	116K	D+19.8	41,504	27,576	70,374	0.6%
Navajo	110K	R+17.2	20,754	29,480	50,847	0.5%
Navajo	108K	R+17.2	20,754	29,480	50,847	0.5%
Navajo	108K	R+17.2	20,754	29,480	50,847	0.5%
Navajo	97K	R+17.2	20,754	29,480	50,847	0.5%
Gila	54K	R+37.5	8,504	18,901	27,698	0.3%
Gila	53K	R+37.5	8,504	18,901	27,698	0.3%
Gila	52K	R+37.5	8,504	18,901	27,698	0.3%
Gila	51K	R+37.5	8,504	18,901	27,698	0.3%
Graham	39K	R+48.0	3,867	11,177	15,215	0.1%
Graham	38K	R+48.0	3,867	11,177	15,215	0.1%
Graham	35K	R+48.0	3,867	11,177	15,215	0.1%
Graham	33K	R+48.0	3,867	11,177	15,215	0.1%
La Paz	20K	R+44.1	2,101	5,470	7,643	0.1%
La Paz	20K	R+44.1	2,101	5,470	7,643	0.1%
La Paz	20K	R+44.1	2,101	5,470	7,643	0.1%
La Paz	17K	R+44.1	2,101	5,470	7,643	0.1%
Greenlee	9K	R+40.8	954	2,308	3,316	0.0%
Greenlee	9K	R+40.8	954	2,308	3,316	0.0%
Greenlee	9K	R+40.8	954	2,308	3,316	0.0%
Greenlee	8K	R+40.8	954	2,308	3,316	0.0%

40 countiesTotal votes: 10,827,844

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Phoenix (Prescott)'s political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Phoenix (Prescott) media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Phoenix (Prescott)Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 59.3%Hispanic 27.3%Black 4.2%Native American 3.9%Asian 3.0%Multiracial 2.1%

Group	Phoenix (Prescott)	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	59.3%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	27.3%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(16)	4.2%	12.2%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(9)	3.9%	0.9%
▶Asian(6)	3.0%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.1%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.8%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

43.5%(2.5M people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +18.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	20.6%	47.4%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	10.4%	24.0%	—	—
Other	10.3%	23.7%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	6.5%	14.9%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	1.5%	3.4%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.3%	0.7%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.3%	0.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	56.5%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Phoenix (Prescott) media market? 19,949,117 residents across 40 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Phoenix (Prescott) vs National19.9M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.9M

local

19.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.96%

local

5.96%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

41.9%

local

41.9%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$60,774

local

$60,774National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.9%

local

13.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

28.5%

local

28.5%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

66.6%

local

66.6%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.6 yrs

local

36.6 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.2%

local

13.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.5%

local

12.5%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.3%

local

13.3%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

24.6%

local

24.6%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.4%

local

75.4%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Phoenix (Prescott)

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

64.2%

vs Previous

+0.6pp

Eligible Non-Voters

1.5M · 35.8%

Citizen VAP

4,217,390

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Phoenix (Prescott) split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+9.1	R+0.8	8.3pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 21.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Phoenix (Prescott) sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Arizona(State)

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