America's most ethnically diverse major metro shifts margins each cycle
Houston's electorate is roughly 44% Hispanic, 17% Black, and 33% non-Hispanic white, a mix that has steadily compressed Republican margins in countywide races while suburban nodes like The Woodlands continue to anchor conservative turnout.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 4.8M | D+5.5 | 808,771 | 722,695 | 1,557,484 | 14.6% |
| Harris | 4.4M | D+5.5 | 808,771 | 722,695 | 1,557,484 | 14.6% |
| Harris | 3.9M | D+5.5 | 808,771 | 722,695 | 1,557,484 | 14.6% |
| Harris | 3.4M | D+5.5 | 808,771 | 722,695 | 1,557,484 | 14.6% |
| Fort Bend | 894K | D+1.6 | 179,310 | 173,592 | 362,524 | 3.4% |
| Montgomery | 684K | R+45.5 | 82,277 | 221,964 | 307,258 | 2.9% |
| Fort Bend | 684K | D+1.6 | 179,310 | 173,592 | 362,524 | 3.4% |
| Montgomery | 519K | R+45.5 | 82,277 | 221,964 | 307,258 | 2.9% |
| Fort Bend | 508K | D+1.6 | 179,310 | 173,592 | 362,524 | 3.4% |
| Montgomery | 412K | R+45.5 | 82,277 | 221,964 | 307,258 | 2.9% |
| Brazoria | 391K | R+19.7 | 63,976 | 95,867 | 162,046 | 1.5% |
| Galveston | 359K | R+27.4 | 56,732 | 100,295 | 158,996 | 1.5% |
| Fort Bend | 354K | D+1.6 | 179,310 | 173,592 | 362,524 | 3.4% |
| Brazoria | 338K | R+19.7 | 63,976 | 95,867 | 162,046 | 1.5% |
| Galveston | 314K | R+27.4 | 56,732 | 100,295 | 158,996 | 1.5% |
| Montgomery | 294K | R+45.5 | 82,277 | 221,964 | 307,258 | 2.9% |
| Brazoria | 292K | R+19.7 | 63,976 | 95,867 | 162,046 | 1.5% |
| Galveston | 282K | R+27.4 | 56,732 | 100,295 | 158,996 | 1.5% |
| Galveston | 250K | R+27.4 | 56,732 | 100,295 | 158,996 | 1.5% |
| Brazoria | 242K | R+19.7 | 63,976 | 95,867 | 162,046 | 1.5% |
| Liberty | 103K | R+61.6 | 5,952 | 25,241 | 31,323 | 0.3% |
| Liberty | 79K | R+61.6 | 5,952 | 25,241 | 31,323 | 0.3% |
| Liberty | 75K | R+61.6 | 5,952 | 25,241 | 31,323 | 0.3% |
| Liberty | 70K | R+61.6 | 5,952 | 25,241 | 31,323 | 0.3% |
| Waller | 62K | R+25.0 | 10,183 | 17,077 | 27,561 | 0.3% |
| Chambers | 51K | R+65.6 | 4,192 | 20,567 | 24,973 | 0.2% |
| Waller | 47K | R+25.0 | 10,183 | 17,077 | 27,561 | 0.3% |
| Chambers | 38K | R+65.6 | 4,192 | 20,567 | 24,973 | 0.2% |
| Waller | 36K | R+25.0 | 10,183 | 17,077 | 27,561 | 0.3% |
| Waller | 33K | R+25.0 | 10,183 | 17,077 | 27,561 | 0.3% |
| Austin | 31K | R+62.7 | 2,816 | 12,457 | 15,383 | 0.1% |
| Chambers | 29K | R+65.6 | 4,192 | 20,567 | 24,973 | 0.2% |
| Austin | 29K | R+62.7 | 2,816 | 12,457 | 15,383 | 0.1% |
| San Jacinto | 28K | R+65.3 | 2,175 | 10,524 | 12,789 | 0.1% |
| San Jacinto | 27K | R+65.3 | 2,175 | 10,524 | 12,789 | 0.1% |
| Austin | 27K | R+62.7 | 2,816 | 12,457 | 15,383 | 0.1% |
| Chambers | 26K | R+65.6 | 4,192 | 20,567 | 24,973 | 0.2% |
| San Jacinto | 25K | R+65.3 | 2,175 | 10,524 | 12,789 | 0.1% |
| Austin | 24K | R+62.7 | 2,816 | 12,457 | 15,383 | 0.1% |
| San Jacinto | 22K | R+65.3 | 2,175 | 10,524 | 12,789 | 0.1% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 39.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 34.7% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 17.1% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 6.8% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.4% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -14.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.8% | 43.4% | — | — | |
| 17.5% | 33.2% | — | — | |
| 5.3% | 10.1% | — | — | |
| 4.5% | 8.6% | — | — | |
| 2.2% | 4.1% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.2% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.6% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 47.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX metro area? 24,263,221 residents across 40 counties.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+6.9 | R+1.5 | 5.5pp |