How did Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+6.6. Kamala D Harris received 297,472 votes and Donald Trump received 340,646 out of 649,626 total votes cast, a 4.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN's political history?

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 39.0 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN?

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN has a population of 5,063,645 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 78.2% non-Hispanic white, 4.1% Hispanic, 13.4% Black. About 27% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $55,052.

Which places are most similar to Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN are St. Louis, MO-IL, Kansas City, MO-KS, Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

A blue urban core anchored in a reliably red state

Louisville's Jefferson County votes Democratic by wide margins, making it one of Kentucky's few population centers that consistently offsets surrounding rural Republican strongholds—though not enough to swing statewide outcomes.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 31140

Population5.1M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

38y▼ 0.9

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

26.7%▼ 8.3

White78.2%
Black13.4%
Hispanic4.1%
Two or more3.7%
Asian1.6%
Other1.2%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-INBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like St. Louis, MO-IL, Kansas City, MO-KS, and Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN.

8 visible matches

St. Louis, MO-IL

Educated rural competitive 2

D+0.8

Similarity score99%

Kansas City, MO-KS

Educated rural competitive 2

D+2.6

Similarity score98%

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+15.8

Similarity score98%

Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

Educated rural competitive 2

D+10.2

Similarity score97%

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Educated rural competitive 2

R+1.3

Similarity score96%

Omaha, NE-IA

Educated rural competitive 2

R+3.5

Similarity score96%

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+25.4

Similarity score94%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Educated rural competitive 2

D+16.8

Similarity score94%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Jefferson	783K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	13.6%
Jefferson	760K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	13.6%
Jefferson	711K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	13.6%
Jefferson	694K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	13.6%
Clark	124K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	2.3%
Clark	114K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	2.3%
Clark	105K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	2.3%
Clark	96K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	2.3%
Bullitt	84K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.7%
Floyd	81K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.6%
Bullitt	78K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.7%
Floyd	76K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.6%
Bullitt	74K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.7%
Floyd	73K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.6%
Floyd	71K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.6%
Oldham	69K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.5%
Oldham	64K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.5%
Bullitt	61K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.7%
Oldham	56K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.5%
Shelby	49K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.9%
Nelson	48K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.9%
Oldham	46K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.5%
Shelby	45K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.9%
Nelson	45K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.9%
Nelson	42K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.9%
Shelby	40K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.9%
Harrison	40K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.8%
Harrison	39K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.8%
Nelson	37K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.9%
Harrison	37K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.8%
Harrison	34K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.8%
Shelby	33K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.9%
Meade	30K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.5%
Meade	29K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.5%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.5%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.5%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.5%
Meade	27K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.5%
Washington	27K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.5%
Meade	26K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.5%
Spencer	20K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.4%
Spencer	18K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.4%
Spencer	17K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.4%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.3%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.3%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.3%
Henry	15K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.3%
Spencer	12K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.4%

48 countiesTotal votes: 2,598,504

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-INCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 78.2%Black 13.4%Hispanic 4.1%Multiracial 2.5%Asian 1.6%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	78.2%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(16)	13.4%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	4.1%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	2.5%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.6%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

45.8%(628.8K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -24.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	21.0%	45.9%	—	—
Catholic	12.1%	26.3%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.9%	10.7%	—	—
Black Protestant	4.3%	9.4%	—	—
Other	3.3%	7.2%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	1.7%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	54.2%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN metro area? 5,063,645 residents across 48 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN vs National5.1M residents

27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.1M

local

5.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.51%

local

1.51%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.9%

local

39.9%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$55,052

local

$55,052National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.6%

local

12.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.7%

local

26.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.8%

local

68.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.0 yrs

local

38.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.3%

local

11.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.7%

local

4.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.6%

local

6.6%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

93.4%

local

93.4%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

63.9%

vs Previous

-2.8pp

Eligible Non-Voters

368K · 36.1%

Citizen VAP

1,017,401

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+6.6	R+25.0	18.4pp
President vs Governor	R+6.6	R+20.4	13.7pp
Senate vs Governor	R+25.0	R+20.4	4.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 19.4pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Indiana(State)Kentucky(State)

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