How did Memphis, TN-MS-AR vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Memphis, TN-MS-AR voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+6.5. Kamala D Harris received 264,640 votes and Donald Trump received 231,564 out of 505,081 total votes cast, a 6.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Memphis, TN-MS-AR's political history?

Memphis, TN-MS-AR has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. The largest single-election swing was 50.3 points in 1948.

What are the demographics of Memphis, TN-MS-AR?

Memphis, TN-MS-AR has a population of 5,191,702 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 46.1% non-Hispanic white, 4.8% Hispanic, 45.3% Black. About 26% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $50,575.

Which places are most similar to Memphis, TN-MS-AR?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Memphis, TN-MS-AR are Columbus, GA-AL, Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC, Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Majority-Black metro where Shelby County anchors Democratic margins across three states

The Memphis metro straddles Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas, with Shelby County's dense urban core driving reliably Democratic presidential margins above 60% even as surrounding exurban and rural counties trend sharply Republican.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 32820

Population5.2M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

35.1y▼ 3.8

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

26.2%▼ 8.8

White46.1%
Black45.3%
Hispanic4.8%
Two or more2.4%
Other2.3%
Asian1.9%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Memphis, TN-MS-ARBaseline

Cycle2024

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Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Columbus, GA-AL, Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC, and Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC.

8 visible matches

Columbus, GA-AL

Educated rural competitive 2

D+6.1

Similarity score97%

Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

Educated rural competitive 2

R+8.3

Similarity score97%

Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC

Educated rural competitive 2

D+10.2

Similarity score93%

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+25.4

Similarity score91%

Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+6.7

Similarity score91%

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Educated rural competitive 2

R+1.3

Similarity score90%

South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI

Educated rural competitive 2

Constituent Geography

Counties in Memphis, TN-MS-AR

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Shelby	937K	D+25.4	201,759	118,917	326,497	16.2%
Shelby	919K	D+25.4	201,759	118,917	326,497	16.2%
Shelby	918K	D+25.4	201,759	118,917	326,497	16.2%
Shelby	897K	D+25.4	201,759	118,917	326,497	16.2%
DeSoto	191K	R+24.1	29,023	48,064	79,082	3.9%
DeSoto	171K	R+24.1	29,023	48,064	79,082	3.9%
DeSoto	149K	R+24.1	29,023	48,064	79,082	3.9%
DeSoto	107K	R+24.1	29,023	48,064	79,082	3.9%
Tipton	62K	R+52.8	6,178	20,303	26,733	1.3%
Tipton	62K	R+52.8	6,178	20,303	26,733	1.3%
Tipton	58K	R+52.8	6,178	20,303	26,733	1.3%
Crittenden	52K	D+2.3	7,362	7,028	14,681	0.7%
Tipton	51K	R+52.8	6,178	20,303	26,733	1.3%
Crittenden	51K	D+2.3	7,362	7,028	14,681	0.7%
Crittenden	50K	D+2.3	7,362	7,028	14,681	0.7%
Crittenden	47K	D+2.3	7,362	7,028	14,681	0.7%
Fayette	43K	R+42.4	6,720	16,756	23,696	1.2%
Fayette	39K	R+42.4	6,720	16,756	23,696	1.2%
Fayette	37K	R+42.4	6,720	16,756	23,696	1.2%
Marshall	36K	R+7.3	6,888	7,977	14,983	0.7%
Marshall	36K	R+7.3	6,888	7,977	14,983	0.7%
Marshall	35K	R+7.3	6,888	7,977	14,983	0.7%
Marshall	34K	R+7.3	6,888	7,977	14,983	0.7%
Fayette	29K	R+42.4	6,720	16,756	23,696	1.2%
Tate	28K	R+43.8	3,555	9,185	12,861	0.6%
Tate	28K	R+43.8	3,555	9,185	12,861	0.6%
Tate	27K	R+43.8	3,555	9,185	12,861	0.6%
Tate	25K	R+43.8	3,555	9,185	12,861	0.6%
Tunica	10K	D+38.9	1,837	799	2,668	0.1%
Tunica	10K	D+38.9	1,837	799	2,668	0.1%
Tunica	9K	D+38.9	1,837	799	2,668	0.1%
Tunica	9K	D+38.9	1,837	799	2,668	0.1%
Benton	8K	R+31.4	1,318	2,535	3,880	0.2%
Benton	8K	R+31.4	1,318	2,535	3,880	0.2%
Benton	8K	R+31.4	1,318	2,535	3,880	0.2%
Benton	8K	R+31.4	1,318	2,535	3,880	0.2%

36 countiesTotal votes: 2,020,324

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Memphis, TN-MS-AR's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Memphis, TN-MS-ARCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 46.1%Black 45.3%Hispanic 4.8%Asian 1.9%Multiracial 1.6%

Group	Memphis, TN-MS-AR	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	46.1%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)	45.3%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	4.8%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	1.9%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.6%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

64.6%(866.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -47.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	32.7%	50.6%	—	—
Black Protestant	17.1%	26.5%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.8%	9.0%	—	—
Catholic	4.8%	7.5%	—	—
Other	4.0%	6.2%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	1.1%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.2%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	35.4%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Memphis, TN-MS-AR metro area? 5,191,702 residents across 36 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Memphis, TN-MS-AR vs National5.2M residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.2M

local

5.2MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.55%

local

1.55%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.8%

local

37.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$50,575

local

$50,575National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.6%

local

17.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.2%

local

26.2%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

63.0%

local

63.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.1 yrs

local

35.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.5%

local

12.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.6%

local

9.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.8%

local

4.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.4%

local

7.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

92.6%

local

92.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Memphis, TN-MS-AR

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

52.5%

vs Previous

-5.9pp

Eligible Non-Voters

457K · 47.5%

Citizen VAP

961,900

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Memphis, TN-MS-AR split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+6.5	D+3.6	2.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 17.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Memphis, TN-MS-AR sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Arkansas(State)Mississippi(State)Tennessee(State)

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