Notre Dame's shadow stretches across a rare Rust Belt swing corridor
Anchored by a major research university yet shaped by deindustrialized neighborhoods, the South Bend metro produces unusually competitive margins for northern Indiana, with the Michigan counties across the state line adding a distinct demographic wrinkle.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Joseph | 273K | D+1.5 | 55,215 | 53,585 | 110,823 | 20.0% |
| St. Joseph | 268K | D+1.5 | 55,215 | 53,585 | 110,823 | 20.0% |
| St. Joseph | 266K | D+1.5 | 55,215 | 53,585 | 110,823 | 20.0% |
| St. Joseph | 266K | D+1.5 | 55,215 | 53,585 | 110,823 | 20.0% |
| Cass | 52K | R+33.9 | 9,050 | 18,505 | 27,871 | 5.0% |
| Cass | 52K | R+33.9 | 9,050 | 18,505 | 27,871 | 5.0% |
| Cass | 51K | R+33.9 | 9,050 | 18,505 | 27,871 | 5.0% |
| Cass | 50K | R+33.9 | 9,050 | 18,505 | 27,871 | 5.0% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.1% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 11.0% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(16) | 6.8% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.8% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.6% | 42.0% | — | — | |
| 12.1% | 32.5% | — | — | |
| 4.2% | 11.3% | — | — | |
| 3.0% | 8.1% | — | — | |
| 2.1% | 5.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 1.1% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 62.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI metro area? 1,277,597 residents across 8 counties.
26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+7.9 | D+2.6 | 10.5pp |
| President vs Governor | R+5.6 | D+2.6 | 8.2pp |
| President vs Senate | R+5.6 | R+7.9 | 2.3pp |