A binational port city where trade volumes shape local economic identity
Nogales anchors one of the busiest land ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, and its heavily Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — produces some of Arizona's most lopsided Democratic margins in federal races.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 49K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 25.0% |
| Santa Cruz | 47K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 25.0% |
| Santa Cruz | 43K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 25.0% |
| Santa Cruz | 38K | D+18.6 | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | 25.0% |
| Group | Nogales, AZ | National |
|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(9) | 81.7% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 16.6% | 57.4% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.5% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 0.3% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 0.3% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +78.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.7% | 89.2% | — | — | |
| 5.4% | 6.2% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 3.6% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.5% | 1.8% | — | — |
| 0.8% | 0.9% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 14.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Nogales, AZ metro area? 176,404 residents across 4 counties.
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+18.6 | D+29.6 | 11.0pp |