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Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

A Sun Belt bellwether where margins have tightened each cycle

The Tampa Bay metro blends retiree-heavy coastal suburbs with a diverse urban core and a large Puerto Rican community in Hillsborough County, producing some of Florida's most closely contested countywide results.

Presidential margin · 2024
Data unavailable for this race.
Race data unavailable
Geography
Race data unavailable
No current race for this office.
2024FIPS 45300
Population11.3M
Median ageU.S. 38.9y
41.5y▲ 2.6
Bachelor's+U.S. 35%
28.3%▼ 6.7
  • White66.7%
  • Hispanic16.5%
  • Black11.3%
  • Two or more6.2%
  • Other3.5%
  • Asian3.0%
Trajectory · 2008–2024
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLBaseline
Reagan → Bush IIObama → TrumpR+100D+102020flip · 2016D+10R+15
Cycle2024
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Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, and Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Hillsborough1.5M
R+3.1
321,455342,017671,99310.4%
Hillsborough1.3M
R+3.1
321,455342,017671,99310.4%
Hillsborough1.2M
R+3.1
321,455342,017671,99310.4%
Hillsborough999K
R+3.1
321,455342,017671,99310.4%
Pinellas963K
R+5.2
242,452269,472517,0748.0%
Pinellas940K
R+5.2
242,452269,472517,0748.0%
Pinellas921K
R+5.2
242,452269,472517,0748.0%
Pinellas915K
R+5.2
242,452269,472517,0748.0%
Pasco611K
R+25.2
117,450197,779318,4714.9%
Pasco488K
R+25.2
117,450197,779318,4714.9%
Pasco454K
R+25.2
117,450197,779318,4714.9%
Pasco345K
R+25.2
117,450197,779318,4714.9%
Hernando207K
R+37.0
34,43175,446110,6911.7%
Hernando177K
R+37.0
34,43175,446110,6911.7%
Hernando166K
R+37.0
34,43175,446110,6911.7%
Hernando131K
R+37.0
34,43175,446110,6911.7%
16 countiesTotal votes: 6,472,916
Historian Query

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Explore Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 66.7%Hispanic 16.5%Black 11.3%Asian 3.0%Multiracial 2.1%Native American 0.3%
GroupLocalNational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
66.7%57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)
16.5%19.3%
▶Black / African American(16)
11.3%12.2%
▶Asian(6)
3.0%6.0%
Multiracial / Other
2.1%4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
1.1%0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)
0.3%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
48.0%(1.6M people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +8.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Catholic
22.2%46.3%——
Evangelical Protestant
16.2%33.8%——
Mainline Protestant
3.6%7.5%——
Other
3.6%7.4%——
Black Protestant
1.7%3.4%——
Orthodox Christian
0.7%1.5%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.5%1.0%——
Non-religiousPopulation
52.0%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL metro area? 11,330,792 residents across 16 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
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Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL vs National11.3M residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
11.3M
local
11.3MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
3.38%
local
3.38%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
43.1%
local
43.1%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$53,261
local
$53,261National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.7%
local
12.7%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
28.3%
local
28.3%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
68.0%
local
68.0%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
41.5 yrs
local
41.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
11.5%
local
11.5%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.8%
local
14.8%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
12.8%
local
12.8%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
19.3%
local
19.3%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
80.7%
local
80.7%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.
2024 Turnout
65.5%
vs Previous
-2.7pp
Eligible Non-Voters
851K · 34.5%
Citizen VAP
2,468,768
History
1988–2024
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (42/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
President vs SenateR+10.4R+8.71.7pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 11.3pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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