How did Buffalo vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Buffalo voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+5.8. Kamala D Harris received 357,533 votes and Donald Trump received 401,895 out of 763,538 total votes cast, a 4.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Buffalo's political history?

Buffalo has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. Democrats have won 12 and Republicans 28 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 38.8 points in 1964.

What are the demographics of Buffalo?

Buffalo has a population of 6,450,493 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 82.4% non-Hispanic white, 4.0% Hispanic, 9.2% Black. About 26% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $51,040.

Which places are most similar to Buffalo?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Buffalo are Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Burlington-Plattsburgh, Portland-Auburn. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Buffalo

Lake Erie's post-industrial core anchors a shifting western New York electorate

The Buffalo media market blends a revitalizing urban center with rural and small-city counties that lean differently, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide margin tracking across western New York.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 514

Population6.5M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

40.1y▲ 1.2

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

26.1%▼ 8.9

White82.4%
Black9.2%
Hispanic4.0%
Two or more2.6%
Asian2.0%
Other1.6%
Native0.6%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

BuffaloBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Burlington-Plattsburgh, and Portland-Auburn.

8 visible matches

Albany-Schenectady-Troy

Educated rural competitive

D+7.6

Similarity score90%

Burlington-Plattsburgh

Educated rural competitive

D+22.8

Similarity score88%

Portland-Auburn

Small-town rural republican 2

D+12.4

Similarity score88%

Rochester, NY

Educated rural competitive

D+9.7

Similarity score80%

Pittsburgh

Small-town rural republican 3

R+8.1

Similarity score79%

Salisbury

Small-town rural republican 2

R+11.8

Similarity score78%

Bend, OR

Small-town rural republican 2

D+10.4

Similarity score77%

Duluth-Superior

Small-town rural republican 2

D+3.5

Similarity score77%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Buffalo

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Erie	951K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	14.9%
Erie	950K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	14.9%
Erie	922K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	14.9%
Erie	914K	D+9.6	248,651	204,774	456,550	14.9%
Niagara	220K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	3.4%
Niagara	215K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	3.4%
Niagara	213K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	3.4%
Niagara	211K	R+14.9	43,438	58,678	102,431	3.4%
Chautauqua	140K	R+21.9	22,085	34,528	56,751	1.9%
Chautauqua	134K	R+21.9	22,085	34,528	56,751	1.9%
Chautauqua	132K	R+21.9	22,085	34,528	56,751	1.9%
Chautauqua	126K	R+21.9	22,085	34,528	56,751	1.9%
Cattaraugus	84K	R+32.7	11,424	22,586	34,107	1.1%
Cattaraugus	80K	R+32.7	11,424	22,586	34,107	1.1%
Cattaraugus	79K	R+32.7	11,424	22,586	34,107	1.1%
Cattaraugus	76K	R+32.7	11,424	22,586	34,107	1.1%
Genesee	60K	R+33.9	9,367	18,997	28,444	0.9%
Genesee	59K	R+33.9	9,367	18,997	28,444	0.9%
Genesee	58K	R+33.9	9,367	18,997	28,444	0.9%
Genesee	58K	R+33.9	9,367	18,997	28,444	0.9%
Allegany	50K	R+43.1	5,483	13,826	19,376	0.6%
Allegany	49K	R+43.1	5,483	13,826	19,376	0.6%
Allegany	48K	R+43.1	5,483	13,826	19,376	0.6%
Allegany	47K	R+43.1	5,483	13,826	19,376	0.6%
McKean	46K	R+47.2	5,115	14,401	19,682	0.6%
Orleans	44K	R+40.4	5,366	12,659	18,071	0.6%
McKean	44K	R+47.2	5,115	14,401	19,682	0.6%
Wyoming	43K	R+48.2	4,929	14,112	19,041	0.6%
McKean	43K	R+47.2	5,115	14,401	19,682	0.6%
Orleans	42K	R+40.4	5,366	12,659	18,071	0.6%
Orleans	42K	R+40.4	5,366	12,659	18,071	0.6%
Wyoming	42K	R+48.2	4,929	14,112	19,041	0.6%
Wyoming	41K	R+48.2	4,929	14,112	19,041	0.6%
McKean	40K	R+47.2	5,115	14,401	19,682	0.6%
Wyoming	40K	R+48.2	4,929	14,112	19,041	0.6%
Orleans	40K	R+40.4	5,366	12,659	18,071	0.6%
Potter	18K	R+62.3	1,675	7,334	9,085	0.3%
Potter	17K	R+62.3	1,675	7,334	9,085	0.3%
Potter	17K	R+62.3	1,675	7,334	9,085	0.3%
Potter	16K	R+62.3	1,675	7,334	9,085	0.3%

40 countiesTotal votes: 3,054,152

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Buffalo's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Buffalo media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

BuffaloCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 82.4%Black 9.2%Hispanic 4.0%Asian 2.0%Multiracial 1.8%Native American 0.6%

Group	Buffalo	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	82.4%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)	9.2%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	4.0%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	2.0%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.8%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.9%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.6%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

57.2%(917.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +44.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	36.1%	63.0%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	7.9%	13.7%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.9%	10.3%	—	—
Other	4.3%	7.5%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.8%	4.9%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	0.9%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.3%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	42.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Buffalo media market? 6,450,493 residents across 40 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Buffalo vs National6.5M residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.5M

local

6.5MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.93%

local

1.93%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.8%

local

37.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$51,040

local

$51,040National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.8%

local

13.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.1%

local

26.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.5%

local

68.5%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.1 yrs

local

40.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.0%

local

13.0%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.6%

local

4.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

8.0%

local

8.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

92.0%

local

92.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Buffalo

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

61.2%

vs Previous

-1.9pp

Eligible Non-Voters

484K · 38.8%

Citizen VAP

1,247,328

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Buffalo split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+5.8	R+0.6	5.3pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 18.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Buffalo sits inside these higher-level geographies.

New York(State)Pennsylvania(State)

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