How did Louisville vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Louisville voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+16.4. Kamala D Harris received 346,650 votes and Donald Trump received 485,350 out of 846,502 total votes cast, a 4.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Louisville's political history?

Louisville has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 32.7 points in 1968.

What are the demographics of Louisville?

Louisville has a population of 6,760,375 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 81.0% non-Hispanic white, 3.9% Hispanic, 11.1% Black. About 24% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $52,827.

Which places are most similar to Louisville?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Louisville are St. Louis, Cincinnati, Nashville. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Louisville

Kentucky's largest media market, anchored by a blue urban core in a red state

Louisville's Jefferson County delivers Democratic margins that routinely offset Republican gains in surrounding rural counties, making the market's inner precincts a reliable bellwether for statewide competitive races.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 529

Population6.8M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

38.1y▼ 0.8

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

23.8%▼ 11.2

White81.0%
Black11.1%
Hispanic3.9%
Two or more3.4%
Asian1.4%
Other1.1%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

LouisvilleBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Nashville.

8 visible matches

St. Louis

Small-town rural republican 3

R+5.3

Similarity score88%

Cincinnati

Small-town rural republican 3

R+19.0

Similarity score85%

Nashville

Small-town rural republican 3

R+28.0

Similarity score84%

Greenvll-Spart-Ashevll-and

Small-town rural republican 3

R+26.4

Similarity score83%

Evansville

Small-town rural republican

R+36.7

Similarity score79%

Indianapolis

Small-town rural republican 3

R+11.9

Similarity score78%

Kansas City

Small-town rural republican 3

R+1.3

Similarity score77%

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Educated rural competitive

D+5.5

Similarity score76%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Louisville

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Jefferson	783K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	10.5%
Jefferson	760K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	10.5%
Jefferson	711K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	10.5%
Jefferson	694K	D+16.5	203,070	144,553	354,094	10.5%
Clark	124K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	1.7%
Clark	114K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	1.7%
Hardin	112K	R+29.3	16,572	30,672	48,082	1.4%
Hardin	108K	R+29.3	16,572	30,672	48,082	1.4%
Clark	105K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	1.7%
Hardin	98K	R+29.3	16,572	30,672	48,082	1.4%
Clark	96K	R+20.3	22,810	34,734	58,612	1.7%
Hardin	94K	R+29.3	16,572	30,672	48,082	1.4%
Bullitt	84K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.3%
Floyd	81K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.2%
Bullitt	78K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.3%
Floyd	76K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.2%
Bullitt	74K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.3%
Floyd	73K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.2%
Floyd	71K	R+15.5	17,025	23,408	41,181	1.2%
Oldham	69K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.1%
Oldham	64K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.1%
Bullitt	61K	R+51.0	10,280	32,299	43,209	1.3%
Oldham	56K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.1%
Shelby	49K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.7%
Nelson	48K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.7%
Jackson	47K	R+55.3	4,015	14,323	18,654	0.6%
Oldham	46K	R+22.6	14,402	23,025	38,210	1.1%
Shelby	45K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.7%
Nelson	45K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.7%
Jackson	44K	R+55.3	4,015	14,323	18,654	0.6%
Nelson	42K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.7%
Jackson	42K	R+55.3	4,015	14,323	18,654	0.6%
Jackson	41K	R+55.3	4,015	14,323	18,654	0.6%
Shelby	40K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.7%
Harrison	40K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.6%
Harrison	39K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.6%
Nelson	37K	R+41.7	6,515	16,052	22,852	0.7%
Harrison	37K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.6%
Harrison	34K	R+46.9	5,233	14,830	20,448	0.6%
Shelby	33K	R+34.7	7,822	16,356	24,620	0.7%
Jefferson	33K	R+36.1	4,442	9,614	14,327	0.4%
Jefferson	33K	R+36.1	4,442	9,614	14,327	0.4%
Jefferson	32K	R+36.1	4,442	9,614	14,327	0.4%
Jefferson	32K	R+36.1	4,442	9,614	14,327	0.4%
Meade	30K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.4%
Meade	29K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.4%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.4%
Jennings	28K	R+58.8	2,328	9,273	11,809	0.3%
Jennings	28K	R+58.8	2,328	9,273	11,809	0.3%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.4%
Washington	28K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.4%
Jennings	28K	R+58.8	2,328	9,273	11,809	0.3%
Jennings	28K	R+58.8	2,328	9,273	11,809	0.3%
Meade	27K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.4%
Washington	27K	R+54.8	2,764	9,739	12,723	0.4%
Grayson	27K	R+61.8	2,235	9,710	12,095	0.4%
Taylor	26K	R+56.7	2,576	9,523	12,261	0.4%
Meade	26K	R+52.0	3,279	10,630	14,123	0.4%
Grayson	26K	R+61.8	2,235	9,710	12,095	0.4%
Grayson	25K	R+61.8	2,235	9,710	12,095	0.4%
Taylor	25K	R+56.7	2,576	9,523	12,261	0.4%
Scott	25K	R+51.5	2,389	7,633	10,187	0.3%
Taylor	24K	R+56.7	2,576	9,523	12,261	0.4%
Grayson	24K	R+61.8	2,235	9,710	12,095	0.4%
Scott	24K	R+51.5	2,389	7,633	10,187	0.3%
Scott	24K	R+51.5	2,389	7,633	10,187	0.3%
Scott	23K	R+51.5	2,389	7,633	10,187	0.3%
Taylor	23K	R+56.7	2,576	9,523	12,261	0.4%
Breckinridge	21K	R+58.2	2,038	7,882	10,048	0.3%
Spencer	20K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.3%
Breckinridge	20K	R+58.2	2,038	7,882	10,048	0.3%
Orange	20K	R+52.1	1,988	6,467	8,595	0.3%
Marion	20K	R+43.5	2,513	6,473	9,102	0.3%
Orange	20K	R+52.1	1,988	6,467	8,595	0.3%
Orange	20K	R+52.1	1,988	6,467	8,595	0.3%
Marion	19K	R+43.5	2,513	6,473	9,102	0.3%
Orange	19K	R+52.1	1,988	6,467	8,595	0.3%
Marion	19K	R+43.5	2,513	6,473	9,102	0.3%
Adair	19K	R+71.2	1,257	7,643	8,974	0.3%
Adair	19K	R+71.2	1,257	7,643	8,974	0.3%
Breckinridge	19K	R+58.2	2,038	7,882	10,048	0.3%
Breckinridge	19K	R+58.2	2,038	7,882	10,048	0.3%
Marion	18K	R+43.5	2,513	6,473	9,102	0.3%
Adair	18K	R+71.2	1,257	7,643	8,974	0.3%
Spencer	18K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.3%
Adair	17K	R+71.2	1,257	7,643	8,974	0.3%
Spencer	17K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.3%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.2%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.2%
Henry	16K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.2%
LaRue	15K	R+60.4	1,389	5,773	7,259	0.2%
Henry	15K	R+52.5	1,857	6,093	8,074	0.2%
LaRue	14K	R+60.4	1,389	5,773	7,259	0.2%
LaRue	14K	R+60.4	1,389	5,773	7,259	0.2%
LaRue	13K	R+60.4	1,389	5,773	7,259	0.2%
Washington	12K	R+50.3	1,533	4,720	6,341	0.2%
Washington	12K	R+50.3	1,533	4,720	6,341	0.2%
Spencer	12K	R+56.7	2,415	8,927	11,480	0.3%
Green	12K	R+72.6	782	5,033	5,857	0.2%
Green	12K	R+72.6	782	5,033	5,857	0.2%
Green	11K	R+72.6	782	5,033	5,857	0.2%
Washington	11K	R+50.3	1,533	4,720	6,341	0.2%
Green	11K	R+72.6	782	5,033	5,857	0.2%
Carroll	11K	R+51.0	963	3,014	4,025	0.1%
Washington	11K	R+50.3	1,533	4,720	6,341	0.2%
Crawford	11K	R+48.5	1,235	3,668	5,011	0.1%
Carroll	11K	R+51.0	963	3,014	4,025	0.1%
Crawford	11K	R+48.5	1,235	3,668	5,011	0.1%
Crawford	11K	R+48.5	1,235	3,668	5,011	0.1%
Carroll	11K	R+51.0	963	3,014	4,025	0.1%
Crawford	10K	R+48.5	1,235	3,668	5,011	0.1%
Carroll	10K	R+51.0	963	3,014	4,025	0.1%
Trimble	9K	R+55.5	923	3,283	4,249	0.1%
Trimble	9K	R+55.5	923	3,283	4,249	0.1%
Trimble	9K	R+55.5	923	3,283	4,249	0.1%
Trimble	8K	R+55.5	923	3,283	4,249	0.1%

116 countiesTotal votes: 3,386,008

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Louisville's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Louisville media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

LouisvilleCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 81.0%Black 11.1%Hispanic 3.9%Multiracial 2.4%Asian 1.4%

Group	Louisville	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	81.0%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)	11.1%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	3.9%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	2.4%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.4%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

45.8%(832.9K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -31.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	23.3%	50.8%	—	—
Catholic	10.7%	23.4%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.4%	11.8%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.4%	7.5%	—	—
Other	2.8%	6.2%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.8%	1.8%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.3%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	54.2%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Louisville media market? 6,760,375 residents across 116 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Louisville vs National6.8M residents

24% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.8M

local

6.8MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.02%

local

2.02%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.5%

local

39.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$52,827

local

$52,827National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.3%

local

13.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

23.8%

local

23.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

69.7%

local

69.7%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.1 yrs

local

38.1 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.4%

local

11.4%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.1%

local

4.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.0%

local

6.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

94.0%

local

94.0%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Louisville

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

62.7%

vs Previous

-2.3pp

Eligible Non-Voters

504K · 37.3%

Citizen VAP

1,350,953

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Louisville split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+16.4	R+32.5	16.1pp
President vs Governor	R+16.4	R+25.3	9.0pp
Senate vs Governor	R+32.5	R+25.3	7.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 17.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Louisville sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Indiana(State)Kentucky(State)

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