How did Nashville vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Nashville voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+28.0. Kamala D Harris received 485,893 votes and Donald Trump received 871,644 out of 1,376,983 total votes cast, a 6.4-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Nashville's political history?

Nashville has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2004. The largest single-election swing was 56.2 points in 1976.

What are the demographics of Nashville?

Nashville has a population of 10,710,594 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 77.1% non-Hispanic white, 6.1% Hispanic, 12.4% Black. About 27% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $56,438.

Which places are most similar to Nashville?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Nashville are Louisville, Indianapolis, Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Nashville

A mid-South media market where suburban growth is rewriting the electoral map

The Nashville DMA spans a swath of Middle Tennessee counties that have trended toward tighter margins as in-migration from coastal metros accelerates, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide suburban sentiment.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 659

Population10.7M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

36.5y▼ 2.4

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

27.1%▼ 7.9

White77.1%
Black12.4%
Hispanic6.1%
Two or more3.7%
Other2.0%
Asian1.8%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

NashvilleBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Louisville, Indianapolis, and Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney.

8 visible matches

Louisville

Small-town rural republican 3

R+16.4

Similarity score84%

Indianapolis

Small-town rural republican 3

R+11.9

Similarity score83%

Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney

Small-town rural republican 3

R+29.3

Similarity score81%

Cincinnati

Small-town rural republican 3

R+19.0

Similarity score81%

Jacksonville

Small-town rural republican 3

R+23.4

Similarity score79%

Wichita-Hutchinson Plus

Small-town rural republican 3

R+33.4

Similarity score79%

Dallas-Fort Worth

Educated rural democratic

R+11.9

Similarity score78%

Kansas City

Small-town rural republican 3

R+1.3

Similarity score77%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Nashville

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Davidson	715K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	5.3%
Davidson	668K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	5.3%
Davidson	621K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	5.3%
Davidson	570K	D+27.4	181,862	102,256	290,036	5.3%
Rutherford	361K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	2.7%
Rutherford	290K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	2.7%
Williamson	260K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	2.6%
Rutherford	240K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	2.7%
Montgomery	234K	R+18.4	32,736	47,795	81,755	1.5%
Williamson	206K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	2.6%
Sumner	204K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	1.8%
Montgomery	190K	R+18.4	32,736	47,795	81,755	1.5%
Rutherford	182K	R+21.8	56,656	88,811	147,656	2.7%
Sumner	173K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	1.8%
Williamson	166K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	2.6%
Wilson	159K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	1.5%
Montgomery	153K	R+18.4	32,736	47,795	81,755	1.5%
Sumner	152K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	1.8%
Montgomery	135K	R+18.4	32,736	47,795	81,755	1.5%
Sumner	130K	R+41.8	27,874	68,767	97,761	1.8%
Williamson	127K	R+32.4	47,695	94,562	144,668	2.6%
Wilson	126K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	1.5%
Maury	108K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	0.9%
Wilson	106K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	1.5%
Wilson	89K	R+40.1	23,855	56,425	81,254	1.5%
Maury	86K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	0.9%
Putnam	83K	R+47.4	8,991	25,554	34,939	0.6%
Maury	80K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	0.9%
Christian	80K	R+33.6	7,055	14,332	21,671	0.4%
Robertson	76K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.6%
Putnam	75K	R+47.4	8,991	25,554	34,939	0.6%
Christian	74K	R+33.6	7,055	14,332	21,671	0.4%
Christian	72K	R+33.6	7,055	14,332	21,671	0.4%
Christian	72K	R+33.6	7,055	14,332	21,671	0.4%
Putnam	70K	R+47.4	8,991	25,554	34,939	0.6%
Maury	69K	R+44.6	14,145	37,376	52,090	0.9%
Robertson	68K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.6%
Robertson	64K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.6%
Putnam	62K	R+47.4	8,991	25,554	34,939	0.6%
Coffee	60K	R+55.1	5,440	19,174	24,932	0.5%
Dickson	56K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.5%
Robertson	54K	R+50.9	8,428	26,260	35,070	0.6%
Coffee	54K	R+55.1	5,440	19,174	24,932	0.5%
Bedford	52K	R+58.0	4,122	15,772	20,090	0.4%
Coffee	52K	R+55.1	5,440	19,174	24,932	0.5%
Dickson	51K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.5%
Coffee	48K	R+55.1	5,440	19,174	24,932	0.5%
Dickson	47K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.5%
Bedford	46K	R+58.0	4,122	15,772	20,090	0.4%
Lawrence	45K	R+69.1	2,939	16,429	19,533	0.4%
Bedford	44K	R+58.0	4,122	15,772	20,090	0.4%
Franklin	44K	R+53.2	4,529	15,016	19,728	0.4%
Dickson	43K	R+51.9	5,913	19,002	25,204	0.5%
Lawrence	42K	R+69.1	2,939	16,429	19,533	0.4%
Warren	42K	R+56.1	3,647	13,192	17,015	0.3%
Cheatham	42K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.4%
Franklin	41K	R+53.2	4,529	15,016	19,728	0.4%
Franklin	41K	R+53.2	4,529	15,016	19,728	0.4%
Lawrence	41K	R+69.1	2,939	16,429	19,533	0.4%
Warren	40K	R+56.1	3,647	13,192	17,015	0.3%
Lawrence	40K	R+69.1	2,939	16,429	19,533	0.4%
Warren	40K	R+56.1	3,647	13,192	17,015	0.3%
Cheatham	40K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.4%
Franklin	39K	R+53.2	4,529	15,016	19,728	0.4%
Cheatham	39K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.4%
Warren	38K	R+56.1	3,647	13,192	17,015	0.3%
Bedford	38K	R+58.0	4,122	15,772	20,090	0.4%
Marshall	36K	R+56.6	3,390	12,426	15,962	0.3%
Cheatham	36K	R+45.9	5,464	14,987	20,741	0.4%
Henry	32K	R+55.3	3,286	11,629	15,076	0.3%
Henry	32K	R+55.3	3,286	11,629	15,076	0.3%
Henry	32K	R+55.3	3,286	11,629	15,076	0.3%
Marshall	31K	R+56.6	3,390	12,426	15,962	0.3%
Henry	31K	R+55.3	3,286	11,629	15,076	0.3%
Giles	31K	R+55.0	2,974	10,394	13,487	0.2%
Giles	29K	R+55.0	2,974	10,394	13,487	0.2%
Marshall	29K	R+56.6	3,390	12,426	15,962	0.3%
Giles	29K	R+55.0	2,974	10,394	13,487	0.2%
Giles	29K	R+55.0	2,974	10,394	13,487	0.2%
White	28K	R+66.6	2,105	10,717	12,931	0.2%
Logan	28K	R+55.0	2,734	9,620	12,511	0.2%
Logan	27K	R+55.0	2,734	9,620	12,511	0.2%
Marshall	27K	R+56.6	3,390	12,426	15,962	0.3%
Logan	27K	R+55.0	2,734	9,620	12,511	0.2%
Logan	27K	R+55.0	2,734	9,620	12,511	0.2%
White	26K	R+66.6	2,105	10,717	12,931	0.2%
Macon	26K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.2%
Hickman	25K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.2%
White	25K	R+66.6	2,105	10,717	12,931	0.2%
Hickman	24K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.2%
Hickman	24K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.2%
White	23K	R+66.6	2,105	10,717	12,931	0.2%
Overton	23K	R+64.2	1,931	9,042	11,069	0.2%
Macon	23K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.2%
Hickman	22K	R+61.1	1,968	8,265	10,309	0.2%
Overton	22K	R+64.2	1,931	9,042	11,069	0.2%
Macon	22K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.2%
Allen	21K	R+67.1	1,505	7,824	9,418	0.2%
DeKalb	21K	R+62.7	1,706	7,599	9,396	0.2%
Overton	21K	R+64.2	1,931	9,042	11,069	0.2%
Allen	20K	R+67.1	1,505	7,824	9,418	0.2%
Smith	20K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Macon	20K	R+74.3	1,277	8,958	10,333	0.2%
Overton	20K	R+64.2	1,931	9,042	11,069	0.2%
Simpson	20K	R+43.9	2,403	6,253	8,776	0.2%
Humphreys	19K	R+56.1	1,767	6,400	8,264	0.2%
Smith	19K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
DeKalb	19K	R+62.7	1,706	7,599	9,396	0.2%
Smith	19K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
Allen	19K	R+67.1	1,505	7,824	9,418	0.2%
DeKalb	19K	R+62.7	1,706	7,599	9,396	0.2%
Humphreys	18K	R+56.1	1,767	6,400	8,264	0.2%
Humphreys	18K	R+56.1	1,767	6,400	8,264	0.2%
Humphreys	18K	R+56.1	1,767	6,400	8,264	0.2%
Simpson	18K	R+43.9	2,403	6,253	8,776	0.2%
Allen	18K	R+67.1	1,505	7,824	9,418	0.2%
Smith	18K	R+64.9	1,595	7,655	9,336	0.2%
DeKalb	17K	R+62.7	1,706	7,599	9,396	0.2%
Simpson	17K	R+43.9	2,403	6,253	8,776	0.2%
Wayne	17K	R+76.9	762	6,016	6,831	0.1%
Wayne	17K	R+76.9	762	6,016	6,831	0.1%
Wayne	17K	R+76.9	762	6,016	6,831	0.1%
Benton	17K	R+62.9	1,317	5,886	7,260	0.1%
Simpson	16K	R+43.9	2,403	6,253	8,776	0.2%
Benton	16K	R+62.9	1,317	5,886	7,260	0.1%
Wayne	16K	R+76.9	762	6,016	6,831	0.1%
Benton	16K	R+62.9	1,317	5,886	7,260	0.1%
Benton	16K	R+62.9	1,317	5,886	7,260	0.1%
Cannon	15K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.1%
Trigg	14K	R+52.4	1,667	5,436	7,196	0.1%
Trigg	14K	R+52.4	1,667	5,436	7,196	0.1%
Stewart	14K	R+63.9	1,160	5,389	6,620	0.1%
Cannon	14K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.1%
Cannon	14K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.1%
Stewart	13K	R+63.9	1,160	5,389	6,620	0.1%
Trigg	13K	R+52.4	1,667	5,436	7,196	0.1%
Stewart	13K	R+63.9	1,160	5,389	6,620	0.1%
Lewis	13K	R+65.5	991	4,852	5,890	0.1%
Cannon	13K	R+66.1	1,132	5,682	6,881	0.1%
Trigg	13K	R+52.4	1,667	5,436	7,196	0.1%
Todd	12K	R+57.9	1,051	4,009	5,112	0.1%
Todd	12K	R+57.9	1,051	4,009	5,112	0.1%
Stewart	12K	R+63.9	1,160	5,389	6,620	0.1%
Todd	12K	R+57.9	1,051	4,009	5,112	0.1%
Jackson	12K	R+62.5	1,040	4,586	5,676	0.1%
Todd	12K	R+57.9	1,051	4,009	5,112	0.1%
Trousdale	12K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Lewis	12K	R+65.5	991	4,852	5,890	0.1%
Monroe	12K	R+77.3	576	4,679	5,308	0.1%
Decatur	12K	R+69.1	819	4,596	5,466	0.1%
Decatur	12K	R+69.1	819	4,596	5,466	0.1%
Monroe	12K	R+77.3	576	4,679	5,308	0.1%
Decatur	12K	R+69.1	819	4,596	5,466	0.1%
Jackson	12K	R+62.5	1,040	4,586	5,676	0.1%
Decatur	11K	R+69.1	819	4,596	5,466	0.1%
Lewis	11K	R+65.5	991	4,852	5,890	0.1%
Lewis	11K	R+65.5	991	4,852	5,890	0.1%
Monroe	11K	R+77.3	576	4,679	5,308	0.1%
Jackson	11K	R+62.5	1,040	4,586	5,676	0.1%
Jackson	11K	R+62.5	1,040	4,586	5,676	0.1%
Monroe	11K	R+77.3	576	4,679	5,308	0.1%
Clinton	10K	R+76.4	549	4,276	4,880	0.1%
Clinton	10K	R+76.4	549	4,276	4,880	0.1%
Clinton	9K	R+76.4	549	4,276	4,880	0.1%
Clinton	9K	R+76.4	549	4,276	4,880	0.1%
Perry	9K	R+69.5	558	3,139	3,716	0.1%
Houston	8K	R+58.2	773	2,989	3,810	0.1%
Houston	8K	R+58.2	773	2,989	3,810	0.1%
Houston	8K	R+58.2	773	2,989	3,810	0.1%
Houston	8K	R+58.2	773	2,989	3,810	0.1%
Clay	8K	R+66.6	614	3,117	3,760	0.1%
Trousdale	8K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Clay	8K	R+66.6	614	3,117	3,760	0.1%
Perry	8K	R+69.5	558	3,139	3,716	0.1%
Clay	8K	R+66.6	614	3,117	3,760	0.1%
Perry	8K	R+69.5	558	3,139	3,716	0.1%
Trousdale	8K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Clay	8K	R+66.6	614	3,117	3,760	0.1%
Perry	8K	R+69.5	558	3,139	3,716	0.1%
Trousdale	7K	R+58.9	856	3,359	4,251	0.1%
Cumberland	7K	R+70.9	483	2,922	3,442	0.1%
Cumberland	7K	R+70.9	483	2,922	3,442	0.1%
Cumberland	7K	R+70.9	483	2,922	3,442	0.1%
Moore	7K	R+68.9	542	3,060	3,654	0.1%
Van Buren	6K	R+67.2	524	2,718	3,265	0.1%
Moore	6K	R+68.9	542	3,060	3,654	0.1%
Moore	6K	R+68.9	542	3,060	3,654	0.1%
Cumberland	6K	R+70.9	483	2,922	3,442	0.1%
Moore	6K	R+68.9	542	3,060	3,654	0.1%
Van Buren	6K	R+67.2	524	2,718	3,265	0.1%
Van Buren	6K	R+67.2	524	2,718	3,265	0.1%
Van Buren	5K	R+67.2	524	2,718	3,265	0.1%
Pickett	5K	R+66.2	487	2,441	2,954	0.1%
Pickett	5K	R+66.2	487	2,441	2,954	0.1%
Pickett	5K	R+66.2	487	2,441	2,954	0.1%
Pickett	5K	R+66.2	487	2,441	2,954	0.1%

196 countiesTotal votes: 5,507,932

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Nashville's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Nashville media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

NashvilleCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 77.1%Black 12.4%Hispanic 6.1%Multiracial 2.3%Asian 1.8%Native American 0.3%

Group	Nashville	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	77.1%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(13)	12.4%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	6.1%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	2.3%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.8%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.9%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

49.2%(1.5M people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -58.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	31.3%	63.6%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	5.7%	11.7%	—	—
Catholic	4.8%	9.8%	—	—
Black Protestant	4.1%	8.3%	—	—
Other	2.6%	5.3%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.9%	1.8%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.7%	1.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	50.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Nashville media market? 10,710,594 residents across 196 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Nashville vs National10.7M residents

27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.7M

local

10.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.20%

local

3.20%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

41.2%

local

41.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$56,438

local

$56,438National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.4%

local

13.4%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

27.1%

local

27.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

67.8%

local

67.8%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.5 yrs

local

36.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.3%

local

13.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.7%

local

10.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.8%

local

5.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

8.4%

local

8.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

91.6%

local

91.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Nashville

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

59.9%

vs Previous

+1.2pp

Eligible Non-Voters

922K · 40.1%

Citizen VAP

2,299,231

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Nashville split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (15/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+28.0	R+25.6	2.4pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 15.1pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Nashville sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Kentucky(State)Tennessee(State)

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