How did South Bend-Elkhart vote in the 2024 presidential election?

South Bend-Elkhart voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+21.6. Kamala D Harris received 146,996 votes and Donald Trump received 229,734 out of 382,908 total votes cast, a 3.2-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is South Bend-Elkhart's political history?

South Bend-Elkhart has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The largest single-election swing was 39.7 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of South Bend-Elkhart?

South Bend-Elkhart has a population of 3,570,606 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 80.2% non-Hispanic white, 7.9% Hispanic, 7.8% Black. About 22% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $51,118.

Which places are most similar to South Bend-Elkhart?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to South Bend-Elkhart are Fort Wayne, Evansville, Terre Haute. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

South Bend-Elkhart

Where Rust Belt manufacturing meets a Big Ten college city

The South Bend-Elkhart market pairs a mid-sized university city that has trended competitive in recent cycles with Elkhart County's RV-industry workforce, one of Indiana's most reliably wide-margin Republican geographies.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 588

Population3.6M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

37y▼ 1.9

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

21.6%▼ 13.4

White80.2%
Hispanic7.9%
Black7.8%
Two or more3.8%
Other3.3%
Asian1.3%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

South Bend-ElkhartBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Fort Wayne, Evansville, and Terre Haute.

8 visible matches

Fort Wayne

Small-town rural republican 3

R+31.9

Similarity score93%

Evansville

Small-town rural republican

R+36.7

Similarity score85%

Terre Haute

Small-town rural republican

R+45.4

Similarity score84%

Clarksburg-Weston

Small-town rural republican

R+47.0

Similarity score79%

Huntsville-Decatur (Flor)

Small-town rural republican 3

R+39.1

Similarity score78%

St. Joseph

Small-town rural republican

R+37.8

Similarity score78%

Chattanooga

Small-town rural republican

R+41.8

Similarity score78%

Quincy-Hannibal-Keokuk

Small-town rural republican

R+46.9

Similarity score78%

Constituent Geography

Counties in South Bend-Elkhart

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
St. Joseph	273K	D+1.5	55,215	53,585	110,823	7.2%
St. Joseph	268K	D+1.5	55,215	53,585	110,823	7.2%
St. Joseph	266K	D+1.5	55,215	53,585	110,823	7.2%
St. Joseph	266K	D+1.5	55,215	53,585	110,823	7.2%
Elkhart	207K	R+32.4	23,082	45,652	69,765	4.6%
Elkhart	202K	R+32.4	23,082	45,652	69,765	4.6%
Elkhart	198K	R+32.4	23,082	45,652	69,765	4.6%
Elkhart	183K	R+32.4	23,082	45,652	69,765	4.6%
Berrien	162K	R+7.9	38,323	44,975	84,488	5.5%
Berrien	160K	R+7.9	38,323	44,975	84,488	5.5%
Berrien	155K	R+7.9	38,323	44,975	84,488	5.5%
Berrien	153K	R+7.9	38,323	44,975	84,488	5.5%
Kosciusko	80K	R+52.2	7,995	26,213	34,896	2.3%
Kosciusko	78K	R+52.2	7,995	26,213	34,896	2.3%
Kosciusko	76K	R+52.2	7,995	26,213	34,896	2.3%
Kosciusko	74K	R+52.2	7,995	26,213	34,896	2.3%
Cass	52K	R+33.9	9,050	18,505	27,871	1.8%
Cass	52K	R+33.9	9,050	18,505	27,871	1.8%
Cass	51K	R+33.9	9,050	18,505	27,871	1.8%
Cass	50K	R+33.9	9,050	18,505	27,871	1.8%
Marshall	47K	R+43.4	5,356	13,837	19,559	1.3%
Marshall	47K	R+43.4	5,356	13,837	19,559	1.3%
Marshall	46K	R+43.4	5,356	13,837	19,559	1.3%
Marshall	45K	R+43.4	5,356	13,837	19,559	1.3%
Lagrange	41K	R+56.8	2,162	8,073	10,411	0.7%
Lagrange	38K	R+56.8	2,162	8,073	10,411	0.7%
Lagrange	37K	R+56.8	2,162	8,073	10,411	0.7%
Lagrange	35K	R+56.8	2,162	8,073	10,411	0.7%
Starke	24K	R+52.0	2,436	7,889	10,478	0.7%
Starke	23K	R+52.0	2,436	7,889	10,478	0.7%
Starke	23K	R+52.0	2,436	7,889	10,478	0.7%
Starke	23K	R+52.0	2,436	7,889	10,478	0.7%
Fulton	21K	R+51.2	2,097	6,633	8,854	0.6%
Fulton	20K	R+51.2	2,097	6,633	8,854	0.6%
Fulton	20K	R+51.2	2,097	6,633	8,854	0.6%
Fulton	20K	R+51.2	2,097	6,633	8,854	0.6%
Pulaski	14K	R+53.6	1,280	4,372	5,763	0.4%
Pulaski	14K	R+53.6	1,280	4,372	5,763	0.4%
Pulaski	13K	R+53.6	1,280	4,372	5,763	0.4%
Pulaski	12K	R+53.6	1,280	4,372	5,763	0.4%

40 countiesTotal votes: 1,531,632

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore South Bend-Elkhart's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the South Bend-Elkhart media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

South Bend-ElkhartCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 80.2%Hispanic 7.9%Black 7.8%Multiracial 2.4%Asian 1.3%Native American 0.4%

Group	South Bend-Elkhart	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	80.2%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	7.9%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(12)	7.8%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.4%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	1.3%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.4%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

40.7%(370.2K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -26.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	20.1%	49.3%	—	—
Catholic	11.1%	27.2%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.6%	11.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.2%	7.8%	—	—
Other	1.7%	4.1%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.3%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.2%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	59.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the South Bend-Elkhart media market? 3,570,606 residents across 40 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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South Bend-Elkhart vs National3.6M residents

22% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 11pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.6M

local

3.6MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.07%

local

1.07%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.9%

local

36.9%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$51,118

local

$51,118National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.9%

local

12.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

21.6%

local

21.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.3%

local

73.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.0 yrs

local

37.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.8%

local

11.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.5%

local

5.5%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.1%

local

12.1%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

87.9%

local

87.9%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in South Bend-Elkhart

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

58.2%

vs Previous

-1.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

275K · 41.8%

Citizen VAP

658,376

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in South Bend-Elkhart split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (16/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+23.7	R+19.9	3.8pp
President vs Senate	R+21.6	R+23.7	2.1pp
President vs Governor	R+21.6	R+19.9	1.7pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 14.9pp

Containing Geography

Located In

South Bend-Elkhart sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Indiana(State)Michigan(State)

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