How did Waco-Temple-Bryan vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Waco-Temple-Bryan voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+30.9. Kamala D Harris received 143,050 votes and Donald Trump received 273,456 out of 421,503 total votes cast, a 7.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Waco-Temple-Bryan's political history?

Waco-Temple-Bryan has 39 presidential elections on record, spanning 1872 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. The largest single-election swing was 72.7 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Waco-Temple-Bryan?

Waco-Temple-Bryan has a population of 3,904,127 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 56.8% non-Hispanic white, 21.7% Hispanic, 16.0% Black. About 25% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $48,292.

Which places are most similar to Waco-Temple-Bryan?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Waco-Temple-Bryan are Lubbock, Lafayette, IN, Bakersfield. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Waco-Temple-Bryan

A mid-size Texas market where rural Baptist belt meets two Big 12 university towns

Spanning McLennan, Bell, and Brazos counties, this market blends heavily evangelical small-city voters with the younger, more transient electorates anchored by Baylor, University of Mary Hardin-Baylor, and Texas A&M.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 625

Population3.9M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

31.4y▼ 7.5

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

24.7%▼ 10.3

White56.8%
Hispanic21.7%
Black16.0%
Two or more7.1%
Other5.7%
Asian2.5%
Native0.6%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Waco-Temple-BryanBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Lubbock, Lafayette, IN, and Bakersfield.

8 visible matches

Diverse rural competitive

Diverse rural competitive

R+10.6

Similarity score80%

Topeka

Small-town rural republican 3

Constituent Geography

Counties in Waco-Temple-Bryan

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Bell	387K	R+16.2	53,973	75,161	130,662	7.7%
Bell	331K	R+16.2	53,973	75,161	130,662	7.7%
Bell	276K	R+16.2	53,973	75,161	130,662	7.7%
McLennan	266K	R+30.8	33,863	64,606	99,672	5.9%
McLennan	243K	R+30.8	33,863	64,606	99,672	5.9%
Brazos	242K	R+24.8	33,844	56,671	91,961	5.5%
Bell	238K	R+16.2	53,973	75,161	130,662	7.7%
McLennan	228K	R+30.8	33,863	64,606	99,672	5.9%
McLennan	214K	R+30.8	33,863	64,606	99,672	5.9%
Brazos	210K	R+24.8	33,844	56,671	91,961	5.5%
Brazos	171K	R+24.8	33,844	56,671	91,961	5.5%
Brazos	152K	R+24.8	33,844	56,671	91,961	5.5%
Coryell	85K	R+40.7	6,959	16,688	23,926	1.4%
Coryell	76K	R+40.7	6,959	16,688	23,926	1.4%
Coryell	75K	R+40.7	6,959	16,688	23,926	1.4%
Coryell	73K	R+40.7	6,959	16,688	23,926	1.4%
Milam	26K	R+57.3	2,331	8,691	11,098	0.7%
Milam	25K	R+57.3	2,331	8,691	11,098	0.7%
Milam	24K	R+57.3	2,331	8,691	11,098	0.7%
Milam	24K	R+57.3	2,331	8,691	11,098	0.7%
Limestone	23K	R+56.9	1,921	7,081	9,075	0.5%
Lampasas	23K	R+59.5	2,232	8,961	11,301	0.7%
Limestone	22K	R+56.9	1,921	7,081	9,075	0.5%
Limestone	22K	R+56.9	1,921	7,081	9,075	0.5%
Limestone	22K	R+56.9	1,921	7,081	9,075	0.5%
Lampasas	20K	R+59.5	2,232	8,961	11,301	0.7%
Lampasas	20K	R+59.5	2,232	8,961	11,301	0.7%
Burleson	19K	R+62.8	1,705	7,590	9,369	0.6%
Falls	19K	R+44.7	1,713	4,520	6,277	0.4%
Lampasas	18K	R+59.5	2,232	8,961	11,301	0.7%
Burleson	17K	R+62.8	1,705	7,590	9,369	0.6%
Falls	17K	R+44.7	1,713	4,520	6,277	0.4%
Falls	17K	R+44.7	1,713	4,520	6,277	0.4%
Robertson	17K	R+52.1	1,926	6,177	8,158	0.5%
Falls	17K	R+44.7	1,713	4,520	6,277	0.4%
Leon	17K	R+76.7	1,033	7,982	9,064	0.5%
Burleson	17K	R+62.8	1,705	7,590	9,369	0.6%
Robertson	17K	R+52.1	1,926	6,177	8,158	0.5%
Leon	17K	R+76.7	1,033	7,982	9,064	0.5%
Burleson	16K	R+62.8	1,705	7,590	9,369	0.6%
Leon	16K	R+76.7	1,033	7,982	9,064	0.5%
Robertson	16K	R+52.1	1,926	6,177	8,158	0.5%
Robertson	16K	R+52.1	1,926	6,177	8,158	0.5%
Leon	15K	R+76.7	1,033	7,982	9,064	0.5%
Madison	14K	R+64.4	964	4,498	5,489	0.3%
Madison	14K	R+64.4	964	4,498	5,489	0.3%
Madison	13K	R+64.4	964	4,498	5,489	0.3%
Madison	13K	R+64.4	964	4,498	5,489	0.3%
San Saba	6K	R+78.8	276	2,412	2,709	0.2%
San Saba	6K	R+78.8	276	2,412	2,709	0.2%
San Saba	6K	R+78.8	276	2,412	2,709	0.2%
San Saba	6K	R+78.8	276	2,412	2,709	0.2%
Mills	5K	R+76.9	310	2,418	2,742	0.2%
Mills	5K	R+76.9	310	2,418	2,742	0.2%
Mills	5K	R+76.9	310	2,418	2,742	0.2%
Mills	5K	R+76.9	310	2,418	2,742	0.2%

56 countiesTotal votes: 1,686,012

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Waco-Temple-Bryan's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Waco-Temple-Bryan media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Waco-Temple-BryanCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 56.8%Hispanic 21.7%Black 16.0%Asian 2.5%Multiracial 2.2%Native American 0.6%

Group	Waco-Temple-Bryan	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	56.8%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	21.7%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(15)	16.0%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	2.5%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.2%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	0.6%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(5)	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

47.7%(545.4K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -23.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	23.6%	49.5%	—	—
Catholic	14.6%	30.7%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	4.5%	9.4%	—	—
Other	2.8%	5.8%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.2%	4.5%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	1.3%	2.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	52.3%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Waco-Temple-Bryan media market? 3,904,127 residents across 56 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Waco-Temple-Bryan vs National3.9M residents

25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.9M

local

3.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.17%

local

1.17%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.0%

local

39.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$48,292

local

$48,292National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.0%

local

18.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

24.7%

local

24.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

58.3%

local

58.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.4 yrs

local

31.4 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.5%

local

18.5%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.5%

local

9.5%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

8.4%

local

8.4%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.2%

local

18.2%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

81.8%

local

81.8%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Waco-Temple-Bryan

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

51.9%

vs Previous

+2.0pp

Eligible Non-Voters

391K · 48.1%

Citizen VAP

812,282

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Waco-Temple-Bryan split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (67/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+30.9	R+26.7	4.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 7.2pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Waco-Temple-Bryan sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Texas(State)

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