How did Missoula vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Missoula voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+14.3. Kamala D Harris received 80,933 votes and Donald Trump received 108,929 out of 195,805 total votes cast, a 4.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Missoula's political history?

Missoula has 34 presidential elections on record, spanning 1892 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996. The largest single-election swing was 68.0 points in 1896.

What are the demographics of Missoula?

Missoula has a population of 1,157,521 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 89.1% non-Hispanic white, 2.9% Hispanic. About 32% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $49,778.

Which places are most similar to Missoula?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Missoula are Helena, Wilmington, Bangor. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Missoula

A college-anchored market where urban precincts diverge sharply from surrounding ranch country

Missoula's media market pairs one of Montana's most reliably Democratic cities with vast rural stretches that vote in the opposite direction, making it a study in the urban-rural split that defines statewide contests.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 762

Population1.2M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

39.9y▲ 1.0

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

31.9%▼ 3.1

White89.1%
Native3.9%
Two or more3.9%
Hispanic2.9%
Asian0.8%
Other0.6%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

MissoulaBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Helena, Wilmington, and Bangor.

8 visible matches

Helena

Small-town rural republican 2

R+11.3

Similarity score92%

Wilmington

Small-town rural republican 2

R+15.8

Similarity score89%

Bangor

Small-town rural republican 2

R+9.4

Similarity score88%

Bend, OR

Small-town rural republican 2

D+10.4

Similarity score86%

Portland-Auburn

Small-town rural republican 2

D+12.4

Similarity score85%

Wausau-Rhinelander

Small-town rural republican 2

R+19.2

Similarity score84%

Traverse City-Cadillac

Small-town rural republican 2

R+22.9

Similarity score83%

Marquette

Small-town rural republican 2

R+16.7

Similarity score82%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Missoula

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Missoula	121K	D+21.4	42,903	27,306	72,773	9.3%
Missoula	113K	D+21.4	42,903	27,306	72,773	9.3%
Flathead	111K	R+33.8	20,062	41,390	63,140	8.1%
Missoula	106K	D+21.4	42,903	27,306	72,773	9.3%
Missoula	96K	D+21.4	42,903	27,306	72,773	9.3%
Flathead	95K	R+33.8	20,062	41,390	63,140	8.1%
Flathead	87K	R+33.8	20,062	41,390	63,140	8.1%
Flathead	74K	R+33.8	20,062	41,390	63,140	8.1%
Ravalli	47K	R+40.6	8,485	20,617	29,904	3.8%
Ravalli	41K	R+40.6	8,485	20,617	29,904	3.8%
Ravalli	40K	R+40.6	8,485	20,617	29,904	3.8%
Ravalli	36K	R+40.6	8,485	20,617	29,904	3.8%
Lake	33K	R+19.9	6,510	9,880	16,910	2.2%
Lake	29K	R+19.9	6,510	9,880	16,910	2.2%
Lake	28K	R+19.9	6,510	9,880	16,910	2.2%
Lake	27K	R+19.9	6,510	9,880	16,910	2.2%
Sanders	13K	R+55.1	1,705	6,150	8,069	1.0%
Sanders	11K	R+55.1	1,705	6,150	8,069	1.0%
Sanders	11K	R+55.1	1,705	6,150	8,069	1.0%
Sanders	10K	R+55.1	1,705	6,150	8,069	1.0%
Mineral	5K	R+48.0	689	2,049	2,833	0.4%
Mineral	4K	R+48.0	689	2,049	2,833	0.4%
Mineral	4K	R+48.0	689	2,049	2,833	0.4%
Mineral	4K	R+48.0	689	2,049	2,833	0.4%
Granite	3K	R+44.0	579	1,537	2,176	0.3%
Granite	3K	R+44.0	579	1,537	2,176	0.3%
Granite	3K	R+44.0	579	1,537	2,176	0.3%
Granite	3K	R+44.0	579	1,537	2,176	0.3%

28 countiesTotal votes: 783,220

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Missoula's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Missoula media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MissoulaCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 89.1%Native American 3.9%Multiracial 3.0%Hispanic 2.9%Asian 0.8%

Group	Missoula	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	89.1%	57.4%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(11)	3.9%	0.9%
Multiracial / Other	3.0%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(15)	2.9%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	0.8%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(6)	0.3%	0.9%
▶Black / African American(6)	0.3%	12.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

29.2%(97.1K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -28.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	13.5%	46.3%	—	—
Catholic	6.6%	22.5%	—	—
Other	6.0%	20.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	4.4%	15.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	3.0%	10.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.1%	0.4%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	70.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Missoula media market? 1,157,521 residents across 28 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Missoula vs National1.2M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.2M

local

1.2MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.35%

local

0.35%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.4%

local

42.4%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$49,778

local

$49,778National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.3%

local

14.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

31.9%

local

31.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.2%

local

68.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.9 yrs

local

39.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.8%

local

12.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.9%

local

13.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.2%

local

2.2%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.9%

local

3.9%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

96.1%

local

96.1%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Missoula

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

74.4%

vs Previous

+2.4pp

Eligible Non-Voters

68K · 25.6%

Citizen VAP

263,329

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Missoula split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (22/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+2.5	R+14.4	11.9pp
President vs Senate	R+14.3	R+2.5	11.8pp
President vs Governor	R+14.3	R+14.4	0.1pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 14.1pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Missoula sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Montana(State)

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