Where Piedmont suburbanization keeps reshuffling the margins
This Triad media market spans three mid-sized cities whose collar counties have shifted measurably in statewide contests over the past decade, making suburban Guilford and Forsyth bellwethers for North Carolina's broader political realignment.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilford | 548K | D+21.8 | 171,118 | 109,077 | 285,053 | 7.2% |
| Guilford | 512K | D+21.8 | 171,118 | 109,077 | 285,053 | 7.2% |
| Guilford | 464K | D+21.8 | 171,118 | 109,077 | 285,053 | 7.2% |
| Guilford | 421K | D+21.8 | 171,118 | 109,077 | 285,053 | 7.2% |
| Forsyth | 390K | D+13.1 | 114,145 | 87,292 | 204,726 | 5.2% |
| Forsyth | 365K | D+13.1 | 114,145 | 87,292 | 204,726 | 5.2% |
| Forsyth | 347K | D+13.1 | 114,145 | 87,292 | 204,726 | 5.2% |
| Forsyth | 306K | D+13.1 | 114,145 | 87,292 | 204,726 | 5.2% |
| Alamance | 177K | R+8.1 | 40,624 | 47,937 | 89,831 | 2.3% |
| Davidson | 173K | R+46.9 | 24,150 | 67,959 | 93,452 | 2.4% |
| Davidson | 164K | R+46.9 | 24,150 | 67,959 | 93,452 | 2.4% |
| Alamance | 156K | R+8.1 | 40,624 | 47,937 | 89,831 | 2.3% |
| Davidson | 156K | R+46.9 | 24,150 | 67,959 | 93,452 | 2.4% |
| Davidson | 147K | R+46.9 | 24,150 | 67,959 | 93,452 | 2.4% |
| Randolph | 146K | R+57.1 | 15,951 | 59,357 | 76,008 | 1.9% |
| Alamance | 145K | R+8.1 | 40,624 | 47,937 | 89,831 | 2.3% |
| Randolph | 143K | R+57.1 | 15,951 | 59,357 | 76,008 | 1.9% |
| Randolph | 139K | R+57.1 | 15,951 | 59,357 | 76,008 | 1.9% |
| Alamance | 131K | R+8.1 | 40,624 | 47,937 | 89,831 | 2.3% |
| Randolph | 130K | R+57.1 | 15,951 | 59,357 | 76,008 | 1.9% |
| Rockingham | 92K | R+35.8 | 15,676 | 33,447 | 49,595 | 1.3% |
| Rockingham | 92K | R+35.8 | 15,676 | 33,447 | 49,595 | 1.3% |
| Rockingham | 92K | R+35.8 | 15,676 | 33,447 | 49,595 | 1.3% |
| Rockingham | 92K | R+35.8 | 15,676 | 33,447 | 49,595 | 1.3% |
| Surry | 73K | R+53.2 | 8,613 | 28,565 | 37,508 | 0.9% |
| Surry | 72K | R+53.2 | 8,613 | 28,565 | 37,508 | 0.9% |
| Surry | 71K | R+53.2 | 8,613 | 28,565 | 37,508 | 0.9% |
| Surry | 71K | R+53.2 | 8,613 | 28,565 | 37,508 | 0.9% |
| Wilkes | 69K | R+59.5 | 7,194 | 28,812 | 36,320 | 0.9% |
| Wilkes | 67K | R+59.5 | 7,194 | 28,812 | 36,320 | 0.9% |
| Wilkes | 66K | R+59.5 | 7,194 | 28,812 | 36,320 | 0.9% |
| Wilkes | 66K | R+59.5 | 7,194 | 28,812 | 36,320 | 0.9% |
| Stokes | 46K | R+59.5 | 5,380 | 21,548 | 27,175 | 0.7% |
| Stokes | 46K | R+59.5 | 5,380 | 21,548 | 27,175 | 0.7% |
| Stokes | 45K | R+59.5 | 5,380 | 21,548 | 27,175 | 0.7% |
| Stokes | 45K | R+59.5 | 5,380 | 21,548 | 27,175 | 0.7% |
| Davie | 44K | R+46.2 | 6,988 | 19,398 | 26,850 | 0.7% |
| Davie | 42K | R+46.2 | 6,988 | 19,398 | 26,850 | 0.7% |
| Davie | 40K | R+46.2 | 6,988 | 19,398 | 26,850 | 0.7% |
| Yadkin | 38K | R+62.3 | 3,739 | 16,439 | 20,397 | 0.5% |
| Yadkin | 38K | R+62.3 | 3,739 | 16,439 | 20,397 | 0.5% |
| Yadkin | 38K | R+62.3 | 3,739 | 16,439 | 20,397 | 0.5% |
| Yadkin | 36K | R+62.3 | 3,739 | 16,439 | 20,397 | 0.5% |
| Davie | 35K | R+46.2 | 6,988 | 19,398 | 26,850 | 0.7% |
| Montgomery | 27K | R+37.8 | 4,055 | 9,044 | 13,206 | 0.3% |
| Montgomery | 27K | R+37.8 | 4,055 | 9,044 | 13,206 | 0.3% |
| Montgomery | 27K | R+37.8 | 4,055 | 9,044 | 13,206 | 0.3% |
| Montgomery | 26K | R+37.8 | 4,055 | 9,044 | 13,206 | 0.3% |
| Caswell | 24K | R+24.5 | 4,493 | 7,445 | 12,040 | 0.3% |
| Caswell | 23K | R+24.5 | 4,493 | 7,445 | 12,040 | 0.3% |
| Caswell | 23K | R+24.5 | 4,493 | 7,445 | 12,040 | 0.3% |
| Caswell | 22K | R+24.5 | 4,493 | 7,445 | 12,040 | 0.3% |
| Patrick | 19K | R+60.4 | 1,886 | 7,746 | 9,698 | 0.2% |
| Patrick | 19K | R+60.4 | 1,886 | 7,746 | 9,698 | 0.2% |
| Patrick | 18K | R+60.4 | 1,886 | 7,746 | 9,698 | 0.2% |
| Patrick | 18K | R+60.4 | 1,886 | 7,746 | 9,698 | 0.2% |
| Alleghany | 11K | R+51.8 | 1,533 | 4,900 | 6,496 | 0.2% |
| Alleghany | 11K | R+51.8 | 1,533 | 4,900 | 6,496 | 0.2% |
| Alleghany | 11K | R+51.8 | 1,533 | 4,900 | 6,496 | 0.2% |
| Alleghany | 11K | R+51.8 | 1,533 | 4,900 | 6,496 | 0.2% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 67.7% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 19.7% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 8.4% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.9% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.8% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.4% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -41.8pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.9% | 52.2% | — | — | |
| 10.8% | 20.3% | — | — | |
| 8.0% | 14.9% | — | — | |
| 3.5% | 6.6% | — | — | |
| 3.1% | 5.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.3% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 46.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Greensboro-H.Point-W.Salem media market? 6,892,714 residents across 60 counties.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+49.1 | D+7.9 | 56.9pp |
| President vs Senate | R+12.5 | R+49.1 | 36.6pp |
| President vs Governor | R+12.5 | D+7.9 | 20.3pp |