How did Tri-Cities, TN-VA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Tri-Cities, TN-VA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+57.9. Kamala D Harris received 76,113 votes and Donald Trump received 289,744 out of 369,213 total votes cast, a 2.9-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Tri-Cities, TN-VA's political history?

Tri-Cities, TN-VA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. The largest single-election swing was 74.2 points in 1872.

What are the demographics of Tri-Cities, TN-VA?

Tri-Cities, TN-VA has a population of 3,146,458 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 93.9% non-Hispanic white, 1.7% Hispanic, 2.3% Black. About 18% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $39,798.

Which places are most similar to Tri-Cities, TN-VA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Tri-Cities, TN-VA are Charleston-Huntington, Knoxville, Wheeling-Steubenville. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Tri-Cities, TN-VA

Appalachian media market where Tennessee and Virginia politics intersect

The Tri-Cities market straddles a state line, meaning voters in Johnson City, Kingsport, and Bristol are reached by campaigns operating under two different sets of electoral rules and candidate slates simultaneously.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 531

Population3.1M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

42y▲ 3.1

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

17.9%▼ 17.1

White93.9%
Black2.3%
Two or more1.8%
Hispanic1.7%
Asian0.5%
Other0.5%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Tri-Cities, TN-VABaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Charleston-Huntington, Knoxville, and Wheeling-Steubenville.

8 visible matches

Charleston-Huntington

Small-town rural republican

R+47.3

Similarity score97%

Knoxville

Small-town rural republican

R+45.9

Similarity score96%

Wheeling-Steubenville

Small-town rural republican

R+45.6

Similarity score96%

Bluefield-Beckley-Oak Hill

Small-town rural republican

R+55.7

Similarity score95%

Springfield, MO

Small-town rural republican

R+49.9

Similarity score95%

Chattanooga

Small-town rural republican

R+41.8

Similarity score95%

Evansville

Small-town rural republican

R+36.7

Similarity score94%

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Small-town rural republican

R+50.2

Similarity score94%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Tri-Cities, TN-VA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Sullivan	161K	R+55.0	16,624	58,154	75,541	5.1%
Sullivan	157K	R+55.0	16,624	58,154	75,541	5.1%
Sullivan	153K	R+55.0	16,624	58,154	75,541	5.1%
Sullivan	153K	R+55.0	16,624	58,154	75,541	5.1%
Washington	136K	R+39.5	18,131	42,299	61,234	4.1%
Washington	126K	R+39.5	18,131	42,299	61,234	4.1%
Washington	117K	R+39.5	18,131	42,299	61,234	4.1%
Washington	107K	R+39.5	18,131	42,299	61,234	4.1%
Greene	72K	R+65.7	5,145	25,586	31,095	2.1%
Greene	69K	R+65.7	5,145	25,586	31,095	2.1%
Greene	66K	R+65.7	5,145	25,586	31,095	2.1%
Greene	63K	R+65.7	5,145	25,586	31,095	2.1%
Carter	59K	R+63.2	4,454	20,167	24,852	1.7%
Hawkins	58K	R+68.8	3,987	22,066	26,266	1.8%
Hawkins	57K	R+68.8	3,987	22,066	26,266	1.8%
Carter	57K	R+63.2	4,454	20,167	24,852	1.7%
Carter	57K	R+63.2	4,454	20,167	24,852	1.7%
Carter	57K	R+63.2	4,454	20,167	24,852	1.7%
Hawkins	57K	R+68.8	3,987	22,066	26,266	1.8%
Washington	55K	R+53.3	6,772	22,455	29,412	2.0%
Washington	54K	R+53.3	6,772	22,455	29,412	2.0%
Hawkins	54K	R+68.8	3,987	22,066	26,266	1.8%
Washington	53K	R+53.3	6,772	22,455	29,412	2.0%
Washington	51K	R+53.3	6,772	22,455	29,412	2.0%
Wise	42K	R+63.3	3,036	13,655	16,776	1.1%
Wise	40K	R+63.3	3,036	13,655	16,776	1.1%
Wise	40K	R+63.3	3,036	13,655	16,776	1.1%
Wise	35K	R+63.3	3,036	13,655	16,776	1.1%
Smyth	33K	R+60.4	2,805	11,521	14,420	1.0%
Smyth	32K	R+60.4	2,805	11,521	14,420	1.0%
Smyth	32K	R+60.4	2,805	11,521	14,420	1.0%
Russell	30K	R+67.5	2,172	11,303	13,525	0.9%
Smyth	29K	R+60.4	2,805	11,521	14,420	1.0%
Russell	29K	R+67.5	2,172	11,303	13,525	0.9%
Russell	28K	R+67.5	2,172	11,303	13,525	0.9%
Buchanan	27K	R+70.6	1,355	7,939	9,327	0.6%
Russell	26K	R+67.5	2,172	11,303	13,525	0.9%
Letcher	25K	R+63.9	1,457	6,848	8,431	0.6%
Lee	25K	R+72.0	1,391	8,674	10,108	0.7%
Lee	25K	R+72.0	1,391	8,674	10,108	0.7%
Letcher	24K	R+63.9	1,457	6,848	8,431	0.6%
Lee	24K	R+72.0	1,391	8,674	10,108	0.7%
Buchanan	24K	R+70.6	1,355	7,939	9,327	0.6%
Scott	23K	R+70.4	1,607	9,392	11,057	0.7%
Letcher	23K	R+63.9	1,457	6,848	8,431	0.6%
Buchanan	23K	R+70.6	1,355	7,939	9,327	0.6%
Scott	23K	R+70.4	1,607	9,392	11,057	0.7%
Scott	22K	R+70.4	1,607	9,392	11,057	0.7%
Lee	22K	R+72.0	1,391	8,674	10,108	0.7%
Scott	21K	R+70.4	1,607	9,392	11,057	0.7%
Letcher	21K	R+63.9	1,457	6,848	8,431	0.6%
Buchanan	19K	R+70.6	1,355	7,939	9,327	0.6%
Johnson	18K	R+69.3	1,212	6,829	8,102	0.5%
Johnson	18K	R+69.3	1,212	6,829	8,102	0.5%
Unicoi	18K	R+62.0	1,578	6,876	8,541	0.6%
Johnson	18K	R+69.3	1,212	6,829	8,102	0.5%
Unicoi	18K	R+62.0	1,578	6,876	8,541	0.6%
Unicoi	18K	R+62.0	1,578	6,876	8,541	0.6%
Unicoi	18K	R+62.0	1,578	6,876	8,541	0.6%
Bristol City	18K	R+39.7	2,231	5,197	7,479	0.5%
Johnson	17K	R+69.3	1,212	6,829	8,102	0.5%
Bristol City	17K	R+39.7	2,231	5,197	7,479	0.5%
Bristol City	17K	R+39.7	2,231	5,197	7,479	0.5%
Bristol City	17K	R+39.7	2,231	5,197	7,479	0.5%
Dickenson	16K	R+62.2	1,316	5,701	7,047	0.5%
Dickenson	16K	R+62.2	1,316	5,701	7,047	0.5%
Dickenson	15K	R+62.2	1,316	5,701	7,047	0.5%
Dickenson	14K	R+62.2	1,316	5,701	7,047	0.5%
Leslie	12K	R+80.9	382	3,908	4,357	0.3%
Leslie	12K	R+80.9	382	3,908	4,357	0.3%
Leslie	11K	R+80.9	382	3,908	4,357	0.3%
Leslie	10K	R+80.9	382	3,908	4,357	0.3%
Norton City	4K	R+43.6	458	1,174	1,643	0.1%
Norton City	4K	R+43.6	458	1,174	1,643	0.1%
Norton City	4K	R+43.6	458	1,174	1,643	0.1%
Norton City	4K	R+43.6	458	1,174	1,643	0.1%

76 countiesTotal votes: 1,476,852

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Tri-Cities, TN-VA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Tri-Cities, TN-VA media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Tri-Cities, TN-VACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 93.9%Black 2.3%Hispanic 1.7%Multiracial 1.4%Asian 0.5%

Group	Tri-Cities, TN-VA	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	93.9%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(11)	2.3%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(15)	1.7%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	1.4%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	0.5%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.2%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

50.2%(397.5K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -77.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	38.2%	76.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	8.1%	16.0%	—	—
Catholic	1.6%	3.1%	—	—
Other	1.3%	2.5%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.1%	2.3%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	1.3%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	49.8%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Tri-Cities, TN-VA media market? 3,146,458 residents across 76 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Tri-Cities, TN-VA vs National3.1M residents

18% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 15pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+22 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.1M

local

3.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.94%

local

0.94%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.2%

local

39.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$39,798

local

$39,798National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.8%

local

17.8%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.9%

local

17.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.4%

local

73.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.0 yrs

local

42.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.9%

local

10.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.4%

local

14.4%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.5%

local

1.5%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.6%

local

2.6%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

97.4%

local

97.4%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Tri-Cities, TN-VA

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

58.0%

vs Previous

+1.1pp

Eligible Non-Voters

267K · 42.0%

Citizen VAP

636,293

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Tri-Cities, TN-VA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+57.9	R+53.1	4.8pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 18.7pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Tri-Cities, TN-VA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Kentucky(State)Tennessee(State)Virginia(State)

Upgrade Path

Unlock Media Market Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.

Target plan Pro$33/mo

Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.

Precinct-Level Data

See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct

Smart Insights

Automated highlights from recent election patterns

Full Historical Access

165 years of election data at every level of geography

CSV Exports

Download any table or chart as a CSV file

Upgrade to Pro$33/mo