How did Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+50.2. Kamala D Harris received 105,685 votes and Donald Trump received 323,896 out of 434,636 total votes cast, a 2.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg's political history?

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 45.5 points in 1976.

What are the demographics of Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg?

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg has a population of 3,835,228 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 87.9% non-Hispanic white, 2.2% Hispanic, 6.8% Black. About 18% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $41,029.

Which places are most similar to Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg are Evansville, Charleston-Huntington, Chattanooga. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

River-junction market where four-state overlap shapes every cycle

Spanning corners of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Tennessee, this mid-Mississippi media market forces campaigns to buy across multiple state lines to reach a relatively small, predominantly rural audience that has shifted decisively toward Republican margins over the past two decades.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 632

Population3.8M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

39.5y▲ 0.6

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

17.9%▼ 17.0

White87.9%
Black6.8%
Two or more2.5%
Hispanic2.2%
Asian0.8%
Other0.6%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Paducah-Cape Girard-HarsbgBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Evansville, Charleston-Huntington, and Chattanooga.

8 visible matches

Evansville

Small-town rural republican

R+36.7

Similarity score95%

Charleston-Huntington

Small-town rural republican

R+47.3

Similarity score95%

Chattanooga

Small-town rural republican

R+41.8

Similarity score94%

Tri-Cities, TN-VA

Small-town rural republican

R+57.9

Similarity score94%

Springfield, MO

Small-town rural republican

R+49.9

Similarity score93%

Quincy-Hannibal-Keokuk

Small-town rural republican

R+46.9

Similarity score93%

Joplin-Pittsburg

Small-town rural republican

R+50.5

Similarity score92%

Terre Haute

Small-town rural republican

R+45.4

Similarity score90%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Cape Girardeau	83K	R+46.5	10,561	29,315	40,353	2.3%
Cape Girardeau	78K	R+46.5	10,561	29,315	40,353	2.3%
Cape Girardeau	73K	R+46.5	10,561	29,315	40,353	2.3%
Cape Girardeau	69K	R+46.5	10,561	29,315	40,353	2.3%
McCracken	68K	R+34.9	10,191	21,349	31,947	1.8%
Williamson	67K	R+38.7	9,890	22,686	33,068	1.9%
Williamson	67K	R+38.7	9,890	22,686	33,068	1.9%
McCracken	66K	R+34.9	10,191	21,349	31,947	1.8%
McCracken	65K	R+34.9	10,191	21,349	31,947	1.8%
McCracken	65K	R+34.9	10,191	21,349	31,947	1.8%
Williamson	64K	R+38.7	9,890	22,686	33,068	1.9%
Williamson	61K	R+38.7	9,890	22,686	33,068	1.9%
Jackson	60K	D+3.5	11,394	10,614	22,465	1.3%
Jackson	59K	D+3.5	11,394	10,614	22,465	1.3%
Jackson	59K	D+3.5	11,394	10,614	22,465	1.3%
Jackson	53K	D+3.5	11,394	10,614	22,465	1.3%
Butler	43K	R+63.8	3,160	14,549	17,860	1.0%
Butler	42K	R+63.8	3,160	14,549	17,860	1.0%
Butler	41K	R+63.8	3,160	14,549	17,860	1.0%
Butler	41K	R+63.8	3,160	14,549	17,860	1.0%
Scott	41K	R+58.9	3,525	13,786	17,421	1.0%
Scott	40K	R+58.9	3,525	13,786	17,421	1.0%
Jefferson	40K	R+47.7	4,240	12,189	16,662	1.0%
Jefferson	40K	R+47.7	4,240	12,189	16,662	1.0%
Franklin	40K	R+50.5	4,257	13,200	17,692	1.0%
Franklin	39K	R+50.5	4,257	13,200	17,692	1.0%
Franklin	39K	R+50.5	4,257	13,200	17,692	1.0%
Scott	39K	R+58.9	3,525	13,786	17,421	1.0%
Jefferson	39K	R+47.7	4,240	12,189	16,662	1.0%
Calloway	38K	R+37.9	5,111	11,539	16,945	1.0%
Calloway	38K	R+37.9	5,111	11,539	16,945	1.0%
Scott	38K	R+58.9	3,525	13,786	17,421	1.0%
Graves	38K	R+61.6	3,105	13,378	16,678	1.0%
Graves	37K	R+61.6	3,105	13,378	16,678	1.0%
Franklin	37K	R+50.5	4,257	13,200	17,692	1.0%
Graves	37K	R+61.6	3,105	13,378	16,678	1.0%
Graves	37K	R+61.6	3,105	13,378	16,678	1.0%
Jefferson	37K	R+47.7	4,240	12,189	16,662	1.0%
Calloway	36K	R+37.9	5,111	11,539	16,945	1.0%
Weakley	35K	R+58.4	2,725	10,541	13,394	0.8%
Calloway	34K	R+37.9	5,111	11,539	16,945	1.0%
Weakley	34K	R+58.4	2,725	10,541	13,394	0.8%
Weakley	33K	R+58.4	2,725	10,541	13,394	0.8%
Dunklin	33K	R+61.8	1,885	8,096	10,051	0.6%
Weakley	33K	R+58.4	2,725	10,541	13,394	0.8%
Obion	32K	R+64.9	2,221	10,596	12,900	0.7%
Marshall	32K	R+56.7	3,700	13,677	17,602	1.0%
Obion	32K	R+64.9	2,221	10,596	12,900	0.7%
Dunklin	32K	R+61.8	1,885	8,096	10,051	0.6%
Dunklin	31K	R+61.8	1,885	8,096	10,051	0.6%
Marshall	31K	R+56.7	3,700	13,677	17,602	1.0%
Marshall	31K	R+56.7	3,700	13,677	17,602	1.0%
Obion	31K	R+64.9	2,221	10,596	12,900	0.7%
Obion	30K	R+64.9	2,221	10,596	12,900	0.7%
Marshall	30K	R+56.7	3,700	13,677	17,602	1.0%
Stoddard	30K	R+73.9	1,736	11,783	13,599	0.8%
Stoddard	30K	R+73.9	1,736	11,783	13,599	0.8%
Stoddard	30K	R+73.9	1,736	11,783	13,599	0.8%
Stoddard	28K	R+73.9	1,736	11,783	13,599	0.8%
Dunklin	27K	R+61.8	1,885	8,096	10,051	0.6%
Saline	27K	R+49.0	2,634	7,830	10,605	0.6%
Saline	26K	R+49.0	2,634	7,830	10,605	0.6%
Saline	25K	R+49.0	2,634	7,830	10,605	0.6%
Saline	23K	R+49.0	2,634	7,830	10,605	0.6%
Perry	23K	R+51.9	2,146	6,949	9,248	0.5%
Perry	23K	R+51.9	2,146	6,949	9,248	0.5%
Perry	22K	R+51.9	2,146	6,949	9,248	0.5%
Perry	21K	R+51.9	2,146	6,949	9,248	0.5%
New Madrid	20K	R+53.5	1,561	5,203	6,811	0.4%
Perry	19K	R+63.4	1,757	7,986	9,824	0.6%
Perry	19K	R+63.4	1,757	7,986	9,824	0.6%
Perry	19K	R+63.4	1,757	7,986	9,824	0.6%
Union	18K	R+43.2	2,285	5,837	8,226	0.5%
New Madrid	18K	R+53.5	1,561	5,203	6,811	0.4%
Perry	18K	R+63.4	1,757	7,986	9,824	0.6%
Union	18K	R+43.2	2,285	5,837	8,226	0.5%
New Madrid	18K	R+53.5	1,561	5,203	6,811	0.4%
Union	17K	R+43.2	2,285	5,837	8,226	0.5%
Union	17K	R+43.2	2,285	5,837	8,226	0.5%
New Madrid	16K	R+53.5	1,561	5,203	6,811	0.4%
Massac	15K	R+48.8	1,683	4,939	6,676	0.4%
Massac	15K	R+48.8	1,683	4,939	6,676	0.4%
Massac	15K	R+48.8	1,683	4,939	6,676	0.4%
Mississippi	14K	R+53.7	1,015	3,404	4,449	0.3%
Ripley	14K	R+73.0	763	5,002	5,804	0.3%
Massac	14K	R+48.8	1,683	4,939	6,676	0.4%
Johnson	14K	R+58.3	1,241	4,798	6,103	0.4%
Ripley	14K	R+73.0	763	5,002	5,804	0.3%
Ripley	14K	R+73.0	763	5,002	5,804	0.3%
Mississippi	13K	R+53.7	1,015	3,404	4,449	0.3%
Mississippi	13K	R+53.7	1,015	3,404	4,449	0.3%
Johnson	13K	R+58.3	1,241	4,798	6,103	0.4%
Wayne	13K	R+72.6	783	5,030	5,847	0.3%
Wayne	13K	R+72.6	783	5,030	5,847	0.3%
Caldwell	13K	R+58.2	1,256	4,860	6,188	0.4%
Johnson	13K	R+58.3	1,241	4,798	6,103	0.4%
Johnson	13K	R+58.3	1,241	4,798	6,103	0.4%
Caldwell	13K	R+58.2	1,256	4,860	6,188	0.4%
Caldwell	13K	R+58.2	1,256	4,860	6,188	0.4%
Madison	13K	R+64.9	986	4,721	5,753	0.3%
Caldwell	13K	R+58.2	1,256	4,860	6,188	0.4%
Wayne	13K	R+72.6	783	5,030	5,847	0.3%
Madison	12K	R+64.9	986	4,721	5,753	0.3%
Bollinger	12K	R+74.8	756	5,365	6,161	0.4%
Madison	12K	R+64.9	986	4,721	5,753	0.3%
Bollinger	12K	R+74.8	756	5,365	6,161	0.4%
Bollinger	12K	R+74.8	756	5,365	6,161	0.4%
Mississippi	12K	R+53.7	1,015	3,404	4,449	0.3%
Madison	12K	R+64.9	986	4,721	5,753	0.3%
Wayne	11K	R+72.6	783	5,030	5,847	0.3%
Ripley	11K	R+73.0	763	5,002	5,804	0.3%
Bollinger	11K	R+74.8	756	5,365	6,161	0.4%
Livingston	10K	R+63.0	886	4,021	4,972	0.3%
Livingston	10K	R+63.0	886	4,021	4,972	0.3%
Alexander	10K	R+19.2	904	1,341	2,271	0.1%
Crittenden	9K	R+68.3	608	3,349	4,010	0.2%
Livingston	9K	R+63.0	886	4,021	4,972	0.3%
Crittenden	9K	R+68.3	608	3,349	4,010	0.2%
Crittenden	9K	R+68.3	608	3,349	4,010	0.2%
Crittenden	9K	R+68.3	608	3,349	4,010	0.2%
Livingston	9K	R+63.0	886	4,021	4,972	0.3%
Lyon	9K	R+53.4	950	3,187	4,187	0.2%
Hamilton	9K	R+63.3	739	3,385	4,181	0.2%
Lyon	8K	R+53.4	950	3,187	4,187	0.2%
Lyon	8K	R+53.4	950	3,187	4,187	0.2%
Ballard	8K	R+64.4	697	3,331	4,088	0.2%
Alexander	8K	R+19.2	904	1,341	2,271	0.1%
Hamilton	8K	R+63.3	739	3,385	4,181	0.2%
Ballard	8K	R+64.4	697	3,331	4,088	0.2%
Hamilton	8K	R+63.3	739	3,385	4,181	0.2%
Ballard	8K	R+64.4	697	3,331	4,088	0.2%
Lyon	8K	R+53.4	950	3,187	4,187	0.2%
Lake	8K	R+54.9	429	1,493	1,939	0.1%
Hamilton	8K	R+63.3	739	3,385	4,181	0.2%
Fulton	8K	R+39.9	636	1,491	2,145	0.1%
Ballard	8K	R+64.4	697	3,331	4,088	0.2%
Lake	8K	R+54.9	429	1,493	1,939	0.1%
Lake	7K	R+54.9	429	1,493	1,939	0.1%
Pulaski	7K	R+34.2	769	1,583	2,381	0.1%
Alexander	7K	R+19.2	904	1,341	2,271	0.1%
Fulton	7K	R+39.9	636	1,491	2,145	0.1%
Lake	7K	R+54.9	429	1,493	1,939	0.1%
Gallatin	6K	R+53.8	561	1,923	2,530	0.1%
Pulaski	6K	R+34.2	769	1,583	2,381	0.1%
Fulton	6K	R+39.9	636	1,491	2,145	0.1%
Fulton	6K	R+39.9	636	1,491	2,145	0.1%
Carter	6K	R+74.2	364	2,488	2,862	0.2%
Carter	6K	R+74.2	364	2,488	2,862	0.2%
Gallatin	6K	R+53.8	561	1,923	2,530	0.1%
Carter	6K	R+74.2	364	2,488	2,862	0.2%
Pulaski	6K	R+34.2	769	1,583	2,381	0.1%
Carlisle	5K	R+68.0	408	2,182	2,610	0.2%
Gallatin	5K	R+53.8	561	1,923	2,530	0.1%
Carter	5K	R+74.2	364	2,488	2,862	0.2%
Hickman	5K	R+61.0	394	1,656	2,069	0.1%
Carlisle	5K	R+68.0	408	2,182	2,610	0.2%
Pulaski	5K	R+34.2	769	1,583	2,381	0.1%
Carlisle	5K	R+68.0	408	2,182	2,610	0.2%
Hickman	5K	R+61.0	394	1,656	2,069	0.1%
Alexander	5K	R+19.2	904	1,341	2,271	0.1%
Gallatin	5K	R+53.8	561	1,923	2,530	0.1%
Hardin	5K	R+61.7	357	1,546	1,926	0.1%
Carlisle	5K	R+68.0	408	2,182	2,610	0.2%
Hickman	5K	R+61.0	394	1,656	2,069	0.1%
Hardin	4K	R+61.7	357	1,546	1,926	0.1%
Hickman	4K	R+61.0	394	1,656	2,069	0.1%
Pope	4K	R+60.1	416	1,698	2,133	0.1%
Pope	4K	R+60.1	416	1,698	2,133	0.1%
Hardin	4K	R+61.7	357	1,546	1,926	0.1%
Pope	4K	R+60.1	416	1,698	2,133	0.1%
Pope	4K	R+60.1	416	1,698	2,133	0.1%
Hardin	4K	R+61.7	357	1,546	1,926	0.1%

172 countiesTotal votes: 1,738,544

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Paducah-Cape Girard-HarsbgCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 87.9%Black 6.8%Hispanic 2.2%Multiracial 2.0%Asian 0.8%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	87.9%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(9)	6.8%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	2.2%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	2.0%	4.0%
▶Asian(6)	0.8%	6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

55.6%(519.6K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -66.5pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	40.2%	72.2%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	6.3%	11.3%	—	—
Catholic	5.6%	10.1%	—	—
Black Protestant	2.0%	3.6%	—	—
Other	1.5%	2.8%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.0%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	44.4%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg media market? 3,835,228 residents across 172 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg vs National3.8M residents

18% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 15pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+22 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.8M

local

3.8MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.15%

local

1.15%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.0%

local

37.0%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$41,029

local

$41,029National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.9%

local

17.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.9%

local

17.9%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.6%

local

70.6%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.5 yrs

local

39.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.1%

local

12.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.4%

local

13.4%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.7%

local

1.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.3%

local

3.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

96.7%

local

96.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

60.0%

vs Previous

-1.6pp

Eligible Non-Voters

290K · 40.0%

Citizen VAP

724,336

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (21/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Governor	R+50.2	R+62.6	12.4pp
President vs Senate	R+50.2	R+59.5	9.3pp
Senate vs Governor	R+59.5	R+62.6	3.1pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 14.3pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Illinois(State)Kentucky(State)Missouri(State)Tennessee(State)

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