How did Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+15.8. Kamala D Harris received 1,095,263 votes and Donald Trump received 1,511,537 out of 2,632,171 total votes cast, a 7.7-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)'s political history?

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) has 39 presidential elections on record, spanning 1872 to 2024. Democrats have won 22 and Republicans 17 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 67.7 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)?

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) has a population of 17,778,373 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 68.8% non-Hispanic white, 15.9% Hispanic, 10.6% Black. About 27% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $52,813.

Live · Media market

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)

Q: Which places are most similar to Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) are Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce, Fort Myers-Naples. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Florida's most competitive media market, decided by single-digit margins

Spanning Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties, this market blends a blue-leaning urban core with fast-growing suburban and retirement communities, making it a consistent battleground for statewide races.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 539

Population17.8M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

43.3y▲ 4.4

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

26.8%▼ 8.2

White68.8%
Hispanic15.9%
Black10.6%
Two or more5.7%
Other3.7%
Asian2.5%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)Baseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce, and Fort Myers-Naples.

8 visible matches

Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne

Educated rural competitive

R+11.1

Similarity score96%

West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce

Small-town rural republican 2

R+6.8

Similarity score95%

Fort Myers-Naples

Small-town rural republican 2

R+31.2

Similarity score93%

Wilmington

Small-town rural republican 2

R+15.8

Similarity score76%

Salisbury

Small-town rural republican 2

R+11.8

Similarity score75%

Phoenix (Prescott)

Educated rural competitive

R+9.1

Similarity score75%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale

Diverse rural competitive

D+0.8

Similarity score74%

Cleveland-Akron (Canton)

Small-town rural republican 3

R+2.3

Similarity score74%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Hillsborough	1.5M	R+3.1	321,455	342,017	671,993	6.4%
Hillsborough	1.3M	R+3.1	321,455	342,017	671,993	6.4%
Hillsborough	1.2M	R+3.1	321,455	342,017	671,993	6.4%
Hillsborough	999K	R+3.1	321,455	342,017	671,993	6.4%
Pinellas	963K	R+5.2	242,452	269,472	517,074	4.9%
Pinellas	940K	R+5.2	242,452	269,472	517,074	4.9%
Pinellas	921K	R+5.2	242,452	269,472	517,074	4.9%
Pinellas	915K	R+5.2	242,452	269,472	517,074	4.9%
Polk	791K	R+20.7	136,879	209,044	348,931	3.3%
Polk	638K	R+20.7	136,879	209,044	348,931	3.3%
Pasco	611K	R+25.2	117,450	197,779	318,471	3.0%
Polk	567K	R+20.7	136,879	209,044	348,931	3.3%
Pasco	488K	R+25.2	117,450	197,779	318,471	3.0%
Polk	484K	R+20.7	136,879	209,044	348,931	3.3%
Sarasota	460K	R+18.2	112,668	163,219	277,866	2.6%
Pasco	454K	R+25.2	117,450	197,779	318,471	3.0%
Manatee	430K	R+23.5	86,674	140,486	228,860	2.2%
Sarasota	398K	R+18.2	112,668	163,219	277,866	2.6%
Sarasota	367K	R+18.2	112,668	163,219	277,866	2.6%
Manatee	353K	R+23.5	86,674	140,486	228,860	2.2%
Pasco	345K	R+25.2	117,450	197,779	318,471	3.0%
Sarasota	326K	R+18.2	112,668	163,219	277,866	2.6%
Manatee	313K	R+23.5	86,674	140,486	228,860	2.2%
Manatee	264K	R+23.5	86,674	140,486	228,860	2.2%
Hernando	207K	R+37.0	34,431	75,446	110,691	1.1%
Hernando	177K	R+37.0	34,431	75,446	110,691	1.1%
Hernando	166K	R+37.0	34,431	75,446	110,691	1.1%
Citrus	162K	R+45.9	26,276	71,356	98,237	0.9%
Citrus	140K	R+45.9	26,276	71,356	98,237	0.9%
Citrus	138K	R+45.9	26,276	71,356	98,237	0.9%
Hernando	131K	R+37.0	34,431	75,446	110,691	1.1%
Citrus	118K	R+45.9	26,276	71,356	98,237	0.9%
Highlands	106K	R+40.8	15,227	36,382	51,905	0.5%
Highlands	99K	R+40.8	15,227	36,382	51,905	0.5%
Highlands	98K	R+40.8	15,227	36,382	51,905	0.5%
Highlands	87K	R+40.8	15,227	36,382	51,905	0.5%
Hardee	29K	R+56.3	1,751	6,336	8,143	0.1%
Hardee	27K	R+56.3	1,751	6,336	8,143	0.1%
Hardee	27K	R+56.3	1,751	6,336	8,143	0.1%
Hardee	26K	R+56.3	1,751	6,336	8,143	0.1%

40 countiesTotal votes: 10,528,684

Historian Query

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“How has the Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 68.8%Hispanic 15.9%Black 10.6%Asian 2.5%Multiracial 1.9%Native American 0.3%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	68.8%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	15.9%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(16)	10.6%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	2.5%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.9%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	0.9%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

45.1%(2.4M people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	19.3%	42.9%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	16.8%	37.4%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	3.5%	7.7%	—	—
Other	3.2%	7.2%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.7%	3.7%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.6%	1.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.5%	1.1%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	54.9%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) media market? 17,778,373 residents across 40 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) vs National17.8M residents

27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.8M

local

17.8MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.31%

local

5.31%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

43.7%

local

43.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$52,813

local

$52,813National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.9%

local

12.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.8%

local

26.8%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.3%

local

70.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

43.3 yrs

local

43.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.9%

local

10.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.0%

local

17.0%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.0%

local

12.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.3%

local

18.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

81.7%

local

81.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

66.2%

vs Previous

-0.9pp

Eligible Non-Voters

1.3M · 33.8%

Citizen VAP

3,977,536

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (45/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+15.8	R+14.2	1.6pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 10.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Florida(State)

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