How did Dayton vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Dayton voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+24.7. Kamala D Harris received 236,098 votes and Donald Trump received 392,917 out of 635,328 total votes cast, a 2.5-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Dayton's political history?

Dayton has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. The largest single-election swing was 37.2 points in 1964.

What are the demographics of Dayton?

Dayton has a population of 5,124,599 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 82.7% non-Hispanic white, 2.1% Hispanic, 11.0% Black. About 23% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $52,024.

Which places are most similar to Dayton?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Dayton are Johnstown-Altoona-State College, Springfield, MO, Toledo. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Dayton

Southwest Ohio's bellwether corridor anchors a competitive media market

The Dayton media market spans a swath of southwest Ohio where urban, suburban, and rural precincts often split sharply, making aggregate results here a reliable early signal for statewide margins.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 542

Population5.1M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

38.8y▼ 0.1

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

23.1%▼ 11.9

White82.7%
Black11.0%
Two or more3.0%
Hispanic2.1%
Asian1.4%
Other0.8%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

DaytonBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Johnstown-Altoona-State College, Springfield, MO, and Toledo.

8 visible matches

Johnstown-Altoona-State College

Small-town rural republican

R+39.0

Similarity score88%

Springfield, MO

Small-town rural republican

R+49.9

Similarity score87%

Toledo

Small-town rural republican 3

R+14.3

Similarity score86%

Evansville

Small-town rural republican

R+36.7

Similarity score85%

Green Bay-Appleton

Small-town rural republican 3

R+17.3

Similarity score85%

Quincy-Hannibal-Keokuk

Small-town rural republican

R+46.9

Similarity score85%

Terre Haute

Small-town rural republican

R+45.4

Similarity score85%

Paducah-Cape Girard-Harsbg

Small-town rural republican

R+50.2

Similarity score84%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Dayton

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Montgomery	559K	D+0.5	126,767	125,566	254,837	10.0%
Montgomery	538K	D+0.5	126,767	125,566	254,837	10.0%
Montgomery	536K	D+0.5	126,767	125,566	254,837	10.0%
Montgomery	533K	D+0.5	126,767	125,566	254,837	10.0%
Greene	170K	R+19.8	35,575	53,399	90,041	3.5%
Greene	164K	R+19.8	35,575	53,399	90,041	3.5%
Greene	158K	R+19.8	35,575	53,399	90,041	3.5%
Greene	148K	R+19.8	35,575	53,399	90,041	3.5%
Clark	145K	R+29.5	21,847	40,403	62,855	2.5%
Clark	140K	R+29.5	21,847	40,403	62,855	2.5%
Clark	136K	R+29.5	21,847	40,403	62,855	2.5%
Clark	135K	R+29.5	21,847	40,403	62,855	2.5%
Miami	110K	R+45.1	15,969	42,677	59,188	2.3%
Miami	104K	R+45.1	15,969	42,677	59,188	2.3%
Miami	101K	R+45.1	15,969	42,677	59,188	2.3%
Miami	99K	R+45.1	15,969	42,677	59,188	2.3%
Wayne	71K	R+32.4	8,828	17,526	26,827	1.1%
Wayne	68K	R+32.4	8,828	17,526	26,827	1.1%
Wayne	67K	R+32.4	8,828	17,526	26,827	1.1%
Wayne	66K	R+32.4	8,828	17,526	26,827	1.1%
Darke	53K	R+65.4	4,583	22,234	27,002	1.1%
Darke	52K	R+65.4	4,583	22,234	27,002	1.1%
Darke	52K	R+65.4	4,583	22,234	27,002	1.1%
Darke	52K	R+65.4	4,583	22,234	27,002	1.1%
Shelby	49K	R+64.8	4,350	20,740	25,288	1.0%
Shelby	49K	R+64.8	4,350	20,740	25,288	1.0%
Shelby	48K	R+64.8	4,350	20,740	25,288	1.0%
Shelby	48K	R+64.8	4,350	20,740	25,288	1.0%
Logan	46K	R+56.2	5,027	18,182	23,406	0.9%
Logan	46K	R+56.2	5,027	18,182	23,406	0.9%
Logan	46K	R+56.2	5,027	18,182	23,406	0.9%
Logan	45K	R+56.2	5,027	18,182	23,406	0.9%
Mercer	42K	R+66.7	3,865	19,710	23,753	0.9%
Preble	42K	R+59.1	4,343	17,146	21,656	0.9%
Preble	42K	R+59.1	4,343	17,146	21,656	0.9%
Preble	42K	R+59.1	4,343	17,146	21,656	0.9%
Mercer	41K	R+66.7	3,865	19,710	23,753	0.9%
Mercer	41K	R+66.7	3,865	19,710	23,753	0.9%
Preble	41K	R+59.1	4,343	17,146	21,656	0.9%
Mercer	41K	R+66.7	3,865	19,710	23,753	0.9%
Champaign	40K	R+50.7	4,944	15,334	20,475	0.8%
Champaign	39K	R+50.7	4,944	15,334	20,475	0.8%
Champaign	39K	R+50.7	4,944	15,334	20,475	0.8%
Champaign	39K	R+50.7	4,944	15,334	20,475	0.8%

44 countiesTotal votes: 2,541,312

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Dayton's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Dayton media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

DaytonCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 82.7%Black 11.0%Multiracial 2.6%Hispanic 2.1%Asian 1.4%

Group	Dayton	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	82.7%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)	11.0%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	2.6%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	2.1%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	1.4%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.5%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

48.9%(628.5K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -29.4pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Evangelical Protestant	23.9%	48.9%	—	—
Catholic	11.7%	24.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	6.6%	13.4%	—	—
Black Protestant	3.7%	7.6%	—	—
Other	2.7%	5.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.7%	1.4%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	51.1%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Dayton media market? 5,124,599 residents across 44 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Export CSVPro

Dayton vs National5.1M residents

23% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 10pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+9 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.1M

local

5.1MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

1.53%

local

1.53%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

37.3%

local

37.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$52,024

local

$52,024National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.9%

local

12.9%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

23.1%

local

23.1%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.0%

local

68.0%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.8 yrs

local

38.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.7%

local

11.7%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.6%

local

12.6%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.8%

local

2.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

4.4%

local

4.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

95.6%

local

95.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Dayton

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

65.0%

vs Previous

-1.4pp

Eligible Non-Voters

341K · 35.0%

Citizen VAP

976,760

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Dayton split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (29/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
Senate vs Governor	R+17.7	R+24.9	7.2pp
President vs Senate	R+24.7	R+17.7	7.0pp
President vs Governor	R+24.7	R+24.9	0.2pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 13.1pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Dayton sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Indiana(State)Ohio(State)

Upgrade Path

Unlock Media Market Analytics

Advance from the public dossier into precinct-level, insight-rich district intelligence.

Target plan Pro$33/mo

Precinct data, Smart Insights, full history, and export controls tailored to place pages.

Precinct-Level Data

See results for every neighborhood and voting precinct

Smart Insights

Automated highlights from recent election patterns

Full Historical Access

165 years of election data at every level of geography

CSV Exports

Download any table or chart as a CSV file

Upgrade to Pro$33/mo