A tech-driven boomtown reshaping Central Texas's electoral map
Rapid in-migration from coastal metros has accelerated demographic change across the Austin DMA, compressing margins in once-reliable suburban territory and making the market one of the most closely watched bellwethers in statewide Texas races.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis | 1.3M | D+39.3 | 398,981 | 170,787 | 581,276 | 12.5% |
| Travis | 1.1M | D+39.3 | 398,981 | 170,787 | 581,276 | 12.5% |
| Travis | 967K | D+39.3 | 398,981 | 170,787 | 581,276 | 12.5% |
| Travis | 812K | D+39.3 | 398,981 | 170,787 | 581,276 | 12.5% |
| Williamson | 673K | R+2.5 | 147,766 | 155,310 | 308,469 | 6.6% |
| Williamson | 491K | R+2.5 | 147,766 | 155,310 | 308,469 | 6.6% |
| Williamson | 372K | R+2.5 | 147,766 | 155,310 | 308,469 | 6.6% |
| Hays | 269K | D+5.6 | 65,528 | 58,438 | 125,827 | 2.7% |
| Williamson | 250K | R+2.5 | 147,766 | 155,310 | 308,469 | 6.6% |
| Hays | 186K | D+5.6 | 65,528 | 58,438 | 125,827 | 2.7% |
| Hays | 141K | D+5.6 | 65,528 | 58,438 | 125,827 | 2.7% |
| Bastrop | 107K | R+18.4 | 15,989 | 23,301 | 39,806 | 0.9% |
| Hays | 98K | D+5.6 | 65,528 | 58,438 | 125,827 | 2.7% |
| Bastrop | 78K | R+18.4 | 15,989 | 23,301 | 39,806 | 0.9% |
| Bastrop | 72K | R+18.4 | 15,989 | 23,301 | 39,806 | 0.9% |
| Bastrop | 58K | R+18.4 | 15,989 | 23,301 | 39,806 | 0.9% |
| Burnet | 53K | R+55.7 | 6,114 | 21,795 | 28,153 | 0.6% |
| Caldwell | 49K | R+14.4 | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,693 | 0.3% |
| Burnet | 45K | R+55.7 | 6,114 | 21,795 | 28,153 | 0.6% |
| Burnet | 43K | R+55.7 | 6,114 | 21,795 | 28,153 | 0.6% |
| Caldwell | 40K | R+14.4 | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,693 | 0.3% |
| Caldwell | 37K | R+14.4 | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,693 | 0.3% |
| Burnet | 34K | R+55.7 | 6,114 | 21,795 | 28,153 | 0.6% |
| Caldwell | 32K | R+14.4 | 6,618 | 8,880 | 15,693 | 0.3% |
| Gillespie | 28K | R+60.9 | 3,160 | 13,202 | 16,492 | 0.4% |
| Gillespie | 26K | R+60.9 | 3,160 | 13,202 | 16,492 | 0.4% |
| Fayette | 25K | R+61.4 | 2,515 | 10,699 | 13,331 | 0.3% |
| Fayette | 25K | R+61.4 | 2,515 | 10,699 | 13,331 | 0.3% |
| Gillespie | 23K | R+60.9 | 3,160 | 13,202 | 16,492 | 0.4% |
| Fayette | 23K | R+61.4 | 2,515 | 10,699 | 13,331 | 0.3% |
| Llano | 22K | R+60.8 | 2,613 | 10,902 | 13,629 | 0.3% |
| Fayette | 22K | R+61.4 | 2,515 | 10,699 | 13,331 | 0.3% |
| Gillespie | 21K | R+60.9 | 3,160 | 13,202 | 16,492 | 0.4% |
| Llano | 20K | R+60.8 | 2,613 | 10,902 | 13,629 | 0.3% |
| Llano | 18K | R+60.8 | 2,613 | 10,902 | 13,629 | 0.3% |
| Lee | 18K | R+60.4 | 1,640 | 6,724 | 8,415 | 0.2% |
| Llano | 17K | R+60.8 | 2,613 | 10,902 | 13,629 | 0.3% |
| Lee | 17K | R+60.4 | 1,640 | 6,724 | 8,415 | 0.2% |
| Lee | 16K | R+60.4 | 1,640 | 6,724 | 8,415 | 0.2% |
| Lee | 16K | R+60.4 | 1,640 | 6,724 | 8,415 | 0.2% |
| Blanco | 12K | R+52.5 | 1,973 | 6,447 | 8,523 | 0.2% |
| Blanco | 11K | R+52.5 | 1,973 | 6,447 | 8,523 | 0.2% |
| Blanco | 9K | R+52.5 | 1,973 | 6,447 | 8,523 | 0.2% |
| Blanco | 8K | R+52.5 | 1,973 | 6,447 | 8,523 | 0.2% |
| Mason | 4K | R+65.0 | 434 | 2,076 | 2,527 | 0.1% |
| Mason | 4K | R+65.0 | 434 | 2,076 | 2,527 | 0.1% |
| Mason | 4K | R+65.0 | 434 | 2,076 | 2,527 | 0.1% |
| Mason | 4K | R+65.0 | 434 | 2,076 | 2,527 | 0.1% |
| Group | Austin | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 55.5% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 29.7% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(13) | 7.1% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.1% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.1% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +7.0pp (vs national 4.5pp). A moderate religious balance between Catholic and Evangelical traditions.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.2% | 44.0% | — | — | |
| 13.4% | 32.5% | — | — | |
| 4.1% | 9.9% | — | — | |
| 4.0% | 9.8% | — | — | |
| 1.4% | 3.5% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.2% | 2.8% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 58.7% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Austin media market? 7,775,374 residents across 48 counties.
42% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 9pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+16 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+14.2 | D+18.2 | 4.0pp |