A once reliably red market now decided by suburban margin shifts
The Dallas–Fort Worth media market spans one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the country, where rapid suburban population growth and rising college-educated voter shares have compressed margins that once ran 20+ points in statewide races.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 2.6M | D+22.2 | 511,118 | 322,569 | 849,872 | 6.2% |
| Dallas | 2.5M | D+22.2 | 511,118 | 322,569 | 849,872 | 6.2% |
| Dallas | 2.4M | D+22.2 | 511,118 | 322,569 | 849,872 | 6.2% |
| Dallas | 2.2M | D+22.2 | 511,118 | 322,569 | 849,872 | 6.2% |
| Tarrant | 2.2M | R+5.1 | 384,501 | 426,626 | 823,312 | 6.0% |
| Tarrant | 1.9M | R+5.1 | 384,501 | 426,626 | 823,312 | 6.0% |
| Tarrant | 1.7M | R+5.1 | 384,501 | 426,626 | 823,312 | 6.0% |
| Tarrant | 1.4M | R+5.1 | 384,501 | 426,626 | 823,312 | 6.0% |
| Collin | 1.2M | R+11.1 | 222,115 | 279,534 | 515,585 | 3.7% |
| Denton | 980K | R+13.1 | 191,503 | 250,521 | 449,188 | 3.3% |
| Collin | 887K | R+11.1 | 222,115 | 279,534 | 515,585 | 3.7% |
| Denton | 755K | R+13.1 | 191,503 | 250,521 | 449,188 | 3.3% |
| Collin | 730K | R+11.1 | 222,115 | 279,534 | 515,585 | 3.7% |
| Denton | 612K | R+13.1 | 191,503 | 250,521 | 449,188 | 3.3% |
| Collin | 492K | R+11.1 | 222,115 | 279,534 | 515,585 | 3.7% |
| Denton | 433K | R+13.1 | 191,503 | 250,521 | 449,188 | 3.3% |
| Ellis | 213K | R+31.1 | 33,850 | 64,763 | 99,557 | 0.7% |
| Johnson | 196K | R+51.4 | 19,247 | 60,752 | 80,721 | 0.6% |
| Kaufman | 173K | R+27.9 | 24,726 | 44,063 | 69,406 | 0.5% |
| Parker | 165K | R+66.4 | 14,872 | 75,168 | 90,840 | 0.7% |
| Ellis | 160K | R+31.1 | 33,850 | 64,763 | 99,557 | 0.7% |
| Johnson | 158K | R+51.4 | 19,247 | 60,752 | 80,721 | 0.6% |
| Johnson | 150K | R+51.4 | 19,247 | 60,752 | 80,721 | 0.6% |
| Ellis | 142K | R+31.1 | 33,850 | 64,763 | 99,557 | 0.7% |
| Johnson | 127K | R+51.4 | 19,247 | 60,752 | 80,721 | 0.6% |
| Rockwall | 124K | R+40.9 | 18,092 | 43,542 | 62,269 | 0.5% |
| Parker | 124K | R+66.4 | 14,872 | 75,168 | 90,840 | 0.7% |
| Kaufman | 112K | R+27.9 | 24,726 | 44,063 | 69,406 | 0.5% |
| Ellis | 111K | R+31.1 | 33,850 | 64,763 | 99,557 | 0.7% |
| Hunt | 109K | R+55.5 | 10,212 | 36,137 | 46,733 | 0.3% |
| Parker | 108K | R+66.4 | 14,872 | 75,168 | 90,840 | 0.7% |
| Kaufman | 96K | R+27.9 | 24,726 | 44,063 | 69,406 | 0.5% |
| Hunt | 89K | R+55.5 | 10,212 | 36,137 | 46,733 | 0.3% |
| Parker | 88K | R+66.4 | 14,872 | 75,168 | 90,840 | 0.7% |
| Rockwall | 88K | R+40.9 | 18,092 | 43,542 | 62,269 | 0.5% |
| Henderson | 85K | R+63.5 | 6,919 | 31,379 | 38,540 | 0.3% |
| Hunt | 82K | R+55.5 | 10,212 | 36,137 | 46,733 | 0.3% |
| Henderson | 79K | R+63.5 | 6,919 | 31,379 | 38,540 | 0.3% |
| Henderson | 79K | R+63.5 | 6,919 | 31,379 | 38,540 | 0.3% |
| Hunt | 77K | R+55.5 | 10,212 | 36,137 | 46,733 | 0.3% |
| Wise | 75K | R+70.0 | 5,605 | 32,385 | 38,243 | 0.3% |
| Henderson | 73K | R+63.5 | 6,919 | 31,379 | 38,540 | 0.3% |
| Rockwall | 73K | R+40.9 | 18,092 | 43,542 | 62,269 | 0.5% |
| Kaufman | 71K | R+27.9 | 24,726 | 44,063 | 69,406 | 0.5% |
| Hood | 66K | R+65.9 | 6,070 | 30,174 | 36,553 | 0.3% |
| Van Zandt | 63K | R+74.8 | 3,450 | 24,351 | 27,950 | 0.2% |
| Wise | 62K | R+70.0 | 5,605 | 32,385 | 38,243 | 0.3% |
| Anderson | 58K | R+61.8 | 3,635 | 15,597 | 19,358 | 0.1% |
| Anderson | 58K | R+61.8 | 3,635 | 15,597 | 19,358 | 0.1% |
| Wise | 58K | R+70.0 | 5,605 | 32,385 | 38,243 | 0.3% |
| Anderson | 57K | R+61.8 | 3,635 | 15,597 | 19,358 | 0.1% |
| Anderson | 55K | R+61.8 | 3,635 | 15,597 | 19,358 | 0.1% |
| Navarro | 55K | R+51.8 | 4,708 | 14,983 | 19,831 | 0.1% |
| Hood | 54K | R+65.9 | 6,070 | 30,174 | 36,553 | 0.3% |
| Van Zandt | 53K | R+74.8 | 3,450 | 24,351 | 27,950 | 0.2% |
| Van Zandt | 52K | R+74.8 | 3,450 | 24,351 | 27,950 | 0.2% |
| Lamar | 51K | R+60.9 | 4,079 | 17,044 | 21,285 | 0.2% |
| Lamar | 50K | R+60.9 | 4,079 | 17,044 | 21,285 | 0.2% |
| Hood | 49K | R+65.9 | 6,070 | 30,174 | 36,553 | 0.3% |
| Lamar | 49K | R+60.9 | 4,079 | 17,044 | 21,285 | 0.2% |
| Navarro | 49K | R+51.8 | 4,708 | 14,983 | 19,831 | 0.1% |
| Wise | 49K | R+70.0 | 5,605 | 32,385 | 38,243 | 0.3% |
| Lamar | 48K | R+60.9 | 4,079 | 17,044 | 21,285 | 0.2% |
| Navarro | 48K | R+51.8 | 4,708 | 14,983 | 19,831 | 0.1% |
| Van Zandt | 48K | R+74.8 | 3,450 | 24,351 | 27,950 | 0.2% |
| Navarro | 45K | R+51.8 | 4,708 | 14,983 | 19,831 | 0.1% |
| Erath | 44K | R+68.0 | 2,871 | 15,349 | 18,351 | 0.1% |
| Rockwall | 43K | R+40.9 | 18,092 | 43,542 | 62,269 | 0.5% |
| Cooke | 43K | R+66.8 | 3,310 | 16,975 | 20,447 | 0.1% |
| Hood | 41K | R+65.9 | 6,070 | 30,174 | 36,553 | 0.3% |
| Erath | 41K | R+68.0 | 2,871 | 15,349 | 18,351 | 0.1% |
| Cooke | 39K | R+66.8 | 3,310 | 16,975 | 20,447 | 0.1% |
| Cooke | 38K | R+66.8 | 3,310 | 16,975 | 20,447 | 0.1% |
| Hopkins | 38K | R+64.6 | 2,917 | 13,754 | 16,778 | 0.1% |
| Hill | 37K | R+64.3 | 2,919 | 13,669 | 16,706 | 0.1% |
| Fannin | 37K | R+67.3 | 2,607 | 13,648 | 16,395 | 0.1% |
| Cooke | 36K | R+66.8 | 3,310 | 16,975 | 20,447 | 0.1% |
| Hopkins | 36K | R+64.6 | 2,917 | 13,754 | 16,778 | 0.1% |
| Erath | 35K | R+68.0 | 2,871 | 15,349 | 18,351 | 0.1% |
| Hill | 35K | R+64.3 | 2,919 | 13,669 | 16,706 | 0.1% |
| Hill | 35K | R+64.3 | 2,919 | 13,669 | 16,706 | 0.1% |
| Hopkins | 34K | R+64.6 | 2,917 | 13,754 | 16,778 | 0.1% |
| Fannin | 34K | R+67.3 | 2,607 | 13,648 | 16,395 | 0.1% |
| Erath | 33K | R+68.0 | 2,871 | 15,349 | 18,351 | 0.1% |
| Fannin | 33K | R+67.3 | 2,607 | 13,648 | 16,395 | 0.1% |
| Hill | 32K | R+64.3 | 2,919 | 13,669 | 16,706 | 0.1% |
| Hopkins | 32K | R+64.6 | 2,917 | 13,754 | 16,778 | 0.1% |
| Fannin | 31K | R+67.3 | 2,607 | 13,648 | 16,395 | 0.1% |
| Palo Pinto | 29K | R+67.1 | 2,143 | 11,093 | 13,336 | 0.1% |
| Palo Pinto | 28K | R+67.1 | 2,143 | 11,093 | 13,336 | 0.1% |
| Palo Pinto | 27K | R+67.1 | 2,143 | 11,093 | 13,336 | 0.1% |
| Palo Pinto | 27K | R+67.1 | 2,143 | 11,093 | 13,336 | 0.1% |
| Freestone | 20K | R+66.3 | 1,499 | 7,500 | 9,045 | 0.1% |
| Freestone | 20K | R+66.3 | 1,499 | 7,500 | 9,045 | 0.1% |
| Freestone | 19K | R+66.3 | 1,499 | 7,500 | 9,045 | 0.1% |
| Bosque | 19K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 0.1% |
| Bosque | 18K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 0.1% |
| Freestone | 18K | R+66.3 | 1,499 | 7,500 | 9,045 | 0.1% |
| Bosque | 18K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 0.1% |
| Bosque | 17K | R+67.3 | 1,524 | 7,969 | 9,576 | 0.1% |
| Red River | 14K | R+61.8 | 1,103 | 4,682 | 5,796 | 0.0% |
| Comanche | 14K | R+74.0 | 834 | 5,679 | 6,544 | 0.0% |
| Comanche | 14K | R+74.0 | 834 | 5,679 | 6,544 | 0.0% |
| Comanche | 14K | R+74.0 | 834 | 5,679 | 6,544 | 0.0% |
| Comanche | 14K | R+74.0 | 834 | 5,679 | 6,544 | 0.0% |
| Red River | 13K | R+61.8 | 1,103 | 4,682 | 5,796 | 0.0% |
| Rains | 13K | R+72.9 | 869 | 5,649 | 6,556 | 0.0% |
| Red River | 12K | R+61.8 | 1,103 | 4,682 | 5,796 | 0.0% |
| Red River | 12K | R+61.8 | 1,103 | 4,682 | 5,796 | 0.0% |
| Rains | 11K | R+72.9 | 869 | 5,649 | 6,556 | 0.0% |
| Rains | 11K | R+72.9 | 869 | 5,649 | 6,556 | 0.0% |
| Somervell | 10K | R+70.7 | 751 | 4,493 | 5,294 | 0.0% |
| Rains | 9K | R+72.9 | 869 | 5,649 | 6,556 | 0.0% |
| Jack | 9K | R+82.3 | 363 | 3,819 | 4,201 | 0.0% |
| Jack | 9K | R+82.3 | 363 | 3,819 | 4,201 | 0.0% |
| Jack | 9K | R+82.3 | 363 | 3,819 | 4,201 | 0.0% |
| Jack | 9K | R+82.3 | 363 | 3,819 | 4,201 | 0.0% |
| Somervell | 9K | R+70.7 | 751 | 4,493 | 5,294 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton | 8K | R+71.3 | 625 | 3,809 | 4,465 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton | 8K | R+71.3 | 625 | 3,809 | 4,465 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton | 8K | R+71.3 | 625 | 3,809 | 4,465 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton | 8K | R+71.3 | 625 | 3,809 | 4,465 | 0.0% |
| Somervell | 8K | R+70.7 | 751 | 4,493 | 5,294 | 0.0% |
| Somervell | 7K | R+70.7 | 751 | 4,493 | 5,294 | 0.0% |
| Delta | 5K | R+69.7 | 397 | 2,250 | 2,658 | 0.0% |
| Delta | 5K | R+69.7 | 397 | 2,250 | 2,658 | 0.0% |
| Delta | 5K | R+69.7 | 397 | 2,250 | 2,658 | 0.0% |
| Delta | 5K | R+69.7 | 397 | 2,250 | 2,658 | 0.0% |
| Group | Dallas-Fort Worth | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 51.8% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 25.9% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 14.4% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.5% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 0.9% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4) | 0.6% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: -27.6pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.0% | 48.5% | — | — | |
| 13.1% | 25.4% | — | — | |
| 5.6% | 10.8% | — | — | |
| 4.6% | 9.0% | — | — | |
| 3.0% | 5.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 1.3% | 2.4% | — | — |
| 0.3% | 0.5% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 48.4% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market? 28,796,606 residents across 128 counties.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+11.9 | R+6.4 | 5.5pp |