How did Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+5.7. Kamala D Harris received 1,013,111 votes and Donald Trump received 900,459 out of 1,973,035 total votes cast, a 7.3-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto's political history?

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 63.1 points in 1912.

What are the demographics of Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto?

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto has a population of 16,769,162 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 51.2% non-Hispanic white, 25.7% Hispanic, 6.6% Black. About 26% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $65,652.

Which places are most similar to Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar media markets to Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto are Los Angeles, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, Las Vegas. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Media market

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

California's inland-valley market where the Delta meets the debate

Spanning from the state capital through the San Joaquin Valley, this media market blends Sacramento's government-worker electorate with Stockton and Modesto's majority-minority, working-class communities, producing notably mixed turnout patterns across its counties.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 862

Population16.8M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

36.2y▼ 2.7

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

26%▼ 9.0

White51.2%
Hispanic25.7%
Asian11.3%
Other10.0%
Two or more8.9%
Black6.6%
Native1.0%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Sacramnto-Stkton-ModestoBaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar media markets

Reads like Los Angeles, San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, and Las Vegas.

8 visible matches

Los Angeles

Educated rural democratic

D+17.9

Similarity score96%

San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose

Educated rural democratic

D+47.6

Similarity score93%

Las Vegas

Educated rural democratic

D+1.3

Similarity score93%

San Diego

Educated rural democratic

D+16.8

Similarity score91%

Houston

Educated rural democratic

R+9.3

Similarity score91%

Chicago

Educated rural democratic

D+23.1

Similarity score90%

Monterey-Salinas

Educated rural democratic

D+39.0

Similarity score88%

New York

Educated rural democratic

D+13.9

Similarity score88%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Sacramento	1.6M	D+19.7	381,564	252,140	656,626	8.3%
Sacramento	1.5M	D+19.7	381,564	252,140	656,626	8.3%
Sacramento	1.4M	D+19.7	381,564	252,140	656,626	8.3%
Sacramento	1.2M	D+19.7	381,564	252,140	656,626	8.3%
San Joaquin	797K	R+0.9	126,647	128,996	263,671	3.3%
San Joaquin	715K	R+0.9	126,647	128,996	263,671	3.3%
San Joaquin	665K	R+0.9	126,647	128,996	263,671	3.3%
San Joaquin	564K	R+0.9	126,647	128,996	263,671	3.3%
Stanislaus	554K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	2.5%
Stanislaus	531K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	2.5%
Stanislaus	505K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	2.5%
Solano	452K	D+23.0	113,997	70,345	189,834	2.4%
Stanislaus	447K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472	2.5%
Solano	430K	D+23.0	113,997	70,345	189,834	2.4%
Placer	419K	R+8.5	103,958	123,941	234,809	3.0%
Solano	406K	D+23.0	113,997	70,345	189,834	2.4%
Solano	395K	D+23.0	113,997	70,345	189,834	2.4%
Placer	371K	R+8.5	103,958	123,941	234,809	3.0%
Placer	332K	R+8.5	103,958	123,941	234,809	3.0%
Placer	248K	R+8.5	103,958	123,941	234,809	3.0%
Yolo	221K	D+36.7	61,405	27,844	91,373	1.2%
Yolo	210K	D+36.7	61,405	27,844	91,373	1.2%
Yolo	193K	D+36.7	61,405	27,844	91,373	1.2%
El Dorado	193K	R+12.0	47,703	61,109	111,890	1.4%
El Dorado	183K	R+12.0	47,703	61,109	111,890	1.4%
El Dorado	176K	R+12.0	47,703	61,109	111,890	1.4%
Yolo	169K	D+36.7	61,405	27,844	91,373	1.2%
El Dorado	156K	R+12.0	47,703	61,109	111,890	1.4%
Nevada	102K	D+12.2	33,784	26,177	62,132	0.8%
Sutter	99K	R+31.6	13,016	25,372	39,048	0.5%
Nevada	99K	D+12.2	33,784	26,177	62,132	0.8%
Nevada	97K	D+12.2	33,784	26,177	62,132	0.8%
Sutter	95K	R+31.6	13,016	25,372	39,048	0.5%
Nevada	92K	D+12.2	33,784	26,177	62,132	0.8%
Sutter	91K	R+31.6	13,016	25,372	39,048	0.5%
Yuba	85K	R+26.1	10,725	18,491	29,817	0.4%
Sutter	79K	R+31.6	13,016	25,372	39,048	0.5%
Yuba	74K	R+26.1	10,725	18,491	29,817	0.4%
Yuba	71K	R+26.1	10,725	18,491	29,817	0.4%
Yuba	60K	R+26.1	10,725	18,491	29,817	0.4%
Tuolumne	56K	R+22.0	10,909	17,210	28,638	0.4%
Tuolumne	55K	R+22.0	10,909	17,210	28,638	0.4%
Tuolumne	54K	R+22.0	10,909	17,210	28,638	0.4%
Tuolumne	54K	R+22.0	10,909	17,210	28,638	0.4%
Calaveras	47K	R+28.1	9,181	16,625	26,480	0.3%
Calaveras	46K	R+28.1	9,181	16,625	26,480	0.3%
Calaveras	45K	R+28.1	9,181	16,625	26,480	0.3%
Amador	41K	R+27.8	7,783	14,018	22,403	0.3%
Calaveras	41K	R+28.1	9,181	16,625	26,480	0.3%
Amador	38K	R+27.8	7,783	14,018	22,403	0.3%
Amador	37K	R+27.8	7,783	14,018	22,403	0.3%
Amador	35K	R+27.8	7,783	14,018	22,403	0.3%
Colusa	22K	R+28.2	2,431	4,414	7,021	0.1%
Colusa	21K	R+28.2	2,431	4,414	7,021	0.1%
Colusa	21K	R+28.2	2,431	4,414	7,021	0.1%
Plumas	21K	R+16.9	4,020	5,725	10,067	0.1%
Plumas	21K	R+16.9	4,020	5,725	10,067	0.1%
Plumas	19K	R+16.9	4,020	5,725	10,067	0.1%
Colusa	19K	R+28.2	2,431	4,414	7,021	0.1%
Plumas	19K	R+16.9	4,020	5,725	10,067	0.1%
Sierra	4K	R+24.2	641	1,066	1,754	0.0%
Sierra	3K	R+24.2	641	1,066	1,754	0.0%
Sierra	3K	R+24.2	641	1,066	1,754	0.0%
Sierra	3K	R+24.2	641	1,066	1,754	0.0%

64 countiesTotal votes: 7,892,140

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto media market voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Sacramnto-Stkton-ModestoCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 51.2%Hispanic 25.7%Asian 11.3%Black 6.6%Multiracial 4.0%Native American 1.0%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	51.2%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	25.7%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	11.3%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(14)	6.6%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	4.0%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	1.1%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.0%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7)	0.2%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

36.4%(1.7M people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: +15.7pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	17.5%	48.0%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	10.1%	27.8%	—	—
Other	6.4%	17.5%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	2.6%	7.2%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	1.3%	3.5%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.9%	2.6%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.7%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	63.5%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto media market? 16,769,162 residents across 64 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto vs National16.8M residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.8M

local

16.8MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.01%

local

5.01%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

40.2%

local

40.2%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$65,652

local

$65,652National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.5%

local

13.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.0%

local

26.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

62.4%

local

62.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.2 yrs

local

36.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.8%

local

12.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

11.0%

local

11.0%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

18.1%

local

18.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.3%

local

29.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

70.7%

local

70.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

61.0%

vs Previous

-4.4pp

Eligible Non-Voters

1.3M · 39.0%

Citizen VAP

3,234,030

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	D+5.7	D+3.6	2.1pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 29.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto sits inside these higher-level geographies.

California(State)

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