Live results: the expected-vote methodology
Our denominator and our call rule are published in full. Open methodology is a feature, not an apology — it is how a self-sourced, math-only desk earns trust against the incumbents.
What a race looks like on the night
The share of expected vote, a running tally, which counties have reported, and an honest call label. Every live number is provisional and can be revised — usually downward — as counties finish counting.
Counted votes read solid; the central estimate is the bar’s length; the faint hatched tail is the conservative upper bound — the remaining vote, made visible, so “why isn’t this called yet” is a picture, not a footnote.
The denominator — a dual expected-vote estimate
A useful early read needs an estimate of how many votes are still out. We publish two numbers and use each for a different job.
- Central estimate — our best estimate of the final total, blending each county’s precinct-reporting completeness with a prior-midterm turnout baseline. This drives the “% of expected vote in” you see.
- Conservative upper bound — a deliberately high ceiling on the votes still to come. This is the only number our call rule is allowed to use. Using a central estimate as the call denominator is exactly how a race gets called early; the upper bound makes the call rule provably safe.
The call rule — math-decisive only
For 2026 Akashic makes no probabilistic projections and shows no needle.
A race is marked called only when it is arithmetically impossible for the trailing field to catch up, given the conservative upper bound on the remaining vote:
(leader’s votes − strongest other candidate’s votes) > conservative upper bound on votes remaining
Until that holds, the label is honest: too early, leading, or too close to call. Ranked-choice contests are never auto-called — a first-choice plurality can be overturned by reallocation. A call can be retracted if a correction undoes the decisive margin; retractions are versioned and visible.
The turnout baseline
Grounded in public MIT Election Lab precinct returns, published per state.
The expected-vote baseline is the most recent comparable midterm (2022, then 2018) county turnout for the office — never a presidential cycle, which would inflate the denominator by a third.
Provisional → certified
The live layer can churn freely without corrupting history.
Live numbers are provisional and never overwrite Akashic’s canonical historical record. After the canvass, certified results fold into the static atlas through a separate reconciliation step.
Other states report on a coverage ladder by feed quality: where we can self-source a clean feed we show live numbers; otherwise we link to the official source and backfill certified results.