Forecast / Governors

2026 Governors forecast

The 36 governorships on the 2026 ballot, rated into a 50-state statehouse outlook.

Democrats are favored to hold a majority of statehouses — 67.9%

Democrats hold

67.9%

Republicans hold

23.2%

Even split

8.9%

Predicted Democratic seats

80% range 22–31

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Florida.

VTNHMARICTMD

Each state with a 2026 governor race, filled by race rating · cyan outlines a seat projected to flip party · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result

Every race, most competitive first

Each row is the matchup (or the upcoming primary date), our race rating, the market’s implied odds where Polymarket is trading the race (with the points it differs from our model), and how the seat has voted for president across the last five cycles. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.

Race	Candidates	Rating	Market	Presidential margin
Alaska	Primary 08/18/26	Tilt D	—	’08R+22’12R+14’16R+15’20R+10’24R+13
Florida	Primary 08/18/26	Tilt D	Republican 82%≠ 39	’08D+3’12D+1’16R+1’20R+3’24R+13
Georgia	JacksonvBottoms	Tilt D	Democratic 57%1	’08R+5’12R+8’16R+5’20EVEN’24R+2
Kansas	Primary 08/04/26	Tilt R	Republican 78%20	’08R+15’12R+22’16R+20’20R+15’24R+16
Michigan	Primary 08/04/26	Tilt D	Democratic 84%26	’08D+16’12D+9’16EVEN’20D+3’24R+1
Nevada	Lombardo*vFord	Tilt D	Democratic 52%6	’08D+13’12D+7’16D+2’20D+2’24R+3
New Hampshire	Primary 09/08/26	Tilt R	Republican 78%20	’08D+10’12D+6’16EVEN’20D+7’24D+3
Arizona	Primary 07/21/26	Lean D	Democratic 78%7	’08R+9’12R+9’16R+4’20EVEN’24R+6
Wisconsin	Primary 08/11/26	Lean D	Democratic 56%14	’08D+14’12D+7’16R+1’20D+1’24R+1
Alabama	TubervillevJones	Likely R	Republican 92%9	’08R+22’12R+22’16R+28’20R+25’24R+30
Iowa	SandvLahn	Likely D	Democratic 66%17	’08D+10’12D+6’16R+9’20R+8’24R+13
Arkansas	Sanders*·Love·Shelby	Safe R	Republican 98%2	’08R+20’12R+24’16R+28’20R+28’24R+31
California	BecerravHilton	Safe D	—	’08D+24’12D+23’16D+30’20D+29’24D+20
Colorado	Primary 06/30/26	Safe D	Democratic 95%1	’08D+9’12D+5’16D+5’20D+14’24D+11
Connecticut	Primary 08/11/26	Safe D	Democratic 94%1	’08D+22’12D+17’16D+14’20D+20’24D+15
Hawaii	Primary 08/08/26	Safe D	Democratic 96%0	’08D+45’12D+43’16D+32’20D+29’24D+23
Idaho	Little*vPickens	Safe R	Republican 97%1	’08R+25’12R+32’16R+32’20R+31’24R+36
Illinois	Pritzker*vBailey	Safe D	Democratic 94%2	’08D+25’12D+17’16D+17’20D+17’24D+11
Maine	PingreevCharles	Safe D	Democratic 94%2	’08D+17’12D+15’16D+3’20D+9’24D+7
Maryland	Moore*vCox	Safe D	Democratic 96%0	’08D+25’12D+26’16D+27’20D+33’24D+29
Massachusetts	Primary 09/01/26	Safe D	Democratic 95%0	’08D+26’12D+23’16D+27’20D+33’24D+25
Minnesota	Primary 08/11/26	Safe D	Democratic 97%1	’08D+10’12D+8’16D+2’20D+7’24D+4
Nebraska	Pillen*vWalz	Safe R	Republican 85%11	’08R+15’12R+22’16R+25’20R+19’24R+20
New Mexico	HaalandvHull	Safe D	Democratic 90%6	’08D+15’12D+10’16D+8’20D+11’24D+6
New York	Hochul*vBlakeman	Safe D	Democratic 93%3	’08D+27’12D+28’16D+22’20D+23’24D+13
Ohio	RamaswamyvActon	Safe D	Republican 57%≠ 53	’08D+5’12D+3’16R+8’20R+8’24R+11
Oklahoma	Munson	Safe R	Republican 95%1	’08R+31’12R+34’16R+36’20R+33’24R+34
Oregon	Kotek*vDrazan	Safe D	Democratic 83%12	’08D+16’12D+12’16D+11’20D+16’24D+14
Pennsylvania	Shapiro*vGarrity	Safe D	Democratic 94%2	’08D+10’12D+5’16R+1’20D+1’24R+2
Rhode Island	Primary 09/09/26	Safe D	Democratic 95%1	’08D+28’12D+27’16D+15’20D+21’24D+14
South Carolina	WilsonvJohnson	Safe R	Republican 91%5	’08R+9’12R+10’16R+14’20R+12’24R+18
South Dakota	Ahlers	Safe R	Republican 93%3	’08R+8’12R+18’16R+30’20R+26’24R+29
Tennessee	Primary 08/06/26	Safe R	Republican 92%4	’08R+15’12R+20’16R+26’20R+23’24R+30
Texas	Abbott*·Hinojosa·Dixon	Safe R	Republican 94%2	’08R+12’12R+16’16R+9’20R+6’24R+14
Vermont	Primary 08/11/26	Safe R	Republican 83%13	’08D+37’12D+36’16D+26’20D+35’24D+32
Wyoming	Primary 08/18/26	Safe R	Republican 94%2	’08R+32’12R+41’16R+46’20R+43’24R+46

How these ratings become probabilities → · The certified Governors record →