Forecast › 2026 Forecast A single, locked expectation — as of July 8, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.
Akashic forecast · the 2026 midterms · edition 3
The 2026 forecast One committed expectation for every U.S. Senate, House, and Governor race — rated by hand, expressed as calibrated win probabilities and a 50,000-run simulated seat distribution, and scored in public when the results land.
50 · 50 Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Democrat — not on the 2026 ballot Colorado — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Delaware — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Illinois · open seat — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Massachusetts — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot North Carolina · open seat — Safe D · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot New Jersey — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot New Mexico — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Oregon — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Rhode Island — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Virginia — Safe D · on the 2026 ballot Georgia — Likely D · on the 2026 ballot Minnesota · open seat — Likely D · on the 2026 ballot New Hampshire · open seat — Likely D · on the 2026 ballot Michigan · open seat — Lean D · on the 2026 ballot Nebraska — Tilt Osborn · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot Alaska — Tilt D · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot Iowa · open seat — Tilt D · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot Ohio · special — Tilt D · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot Texas — Tilt D · projected flip · on the 2026 ballot Maine — Tilt R · on the 2026 ballot Florida · special — Lean R · on the 2026 ballot Montana · open seat — Lean R · on the 2026 ballot Kansas — Likely R · on the 2026 ballot Mississippi — Likely R · on the 2026 ballot South Carolina — Likely R · on the 2026 ballot Alabama · open seat — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Arkansas — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Idaho — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Kentucky · open seat — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Louisiana · open seat — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Oklahoma · open seat — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot South Dakota — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Tennessee — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot West Virginia — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Wyoming · open seat — Safe R · on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot Held by a Republican — not on the 2026 ballot The Senate, seat by seat — the 65 holdovers not on the ballot recede in muted party color; the 35 seats up in 2026 are shaded by race rating, most Democratic to most Republican. A cyan ring marks a projected flip; gold, an independent favored. A forecast, never a result. Every tilt-rated race and the closest leans, most competitive first — the ground where the majorities are actually won. Follow a race for the full call, its money, its polling, and its place page.
Every tilt-rated race, then the closest leans — 12 of the 506 rated contests. Market odds via Polymarket where a race trades.
Alabama · Safe R Alaska · Tilt D Colorado · Safe D Florida · Lean R Georgia · Likely D Kansas · Likely R Maine · Tilt R Massachusetts · Safe D Minnesota · Likely D New Jersey · Safe D North Carolina · Safe D Oklahoma · Safe R South Dakota · Safe R Texas · Tilt D Wyoming · Safe R West Virginia · Safe R Illinois · Safe D New Mexico · Safe D Arkansas · Safe R Delaware · Safe D Iowa · Tilt D Kentucky · Safe R Michigan · Lean D Mississippi · Likely R Montana · Lean R New Hampshire · Likely D Ohio · Tilt D Oregon · Safe D Tennessee · Safe R Virginia · Safe D Nebraska · Tilt Osborn South Carolina · Likely R Idaho · Safe R Louisiana · Safe R Rhode Island · Safe D AL AK CO FL GA KS ME MN NC OK SD TX WY WV IL NM AR IA KY MI MS MT OH OR TN VA NE SC ID LA NH MA RI NJ DE
Each state with a 2026 Senate race, filled by race rating · cyan outlines a seat projected to flip party · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result
Each chamber’s full seat distribution — 50,000 Monte-Carlo runs with a correlated national-swing error — beside the market’s implied odds on control.
Democrats are favored to control the Senate — 56.7%
Democrats 51 Republicans 49 51 for a Democratic majority Republicans control
43.3%
incl. 8.7% at 50–50 (VP breaks the tie)
Predicted Democratic seats
51
80% range 47–55
A 50–50 U.S. Senate is Republican -controlled — the Vice President breaks the tie — so Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50.
51 for a D majority 38D 51D 63D Tipping-point race The seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Nebraska .
Model vs. market · control of the Senate
Democratic Republican Akashic Democratic 57% Market Republican 56% disagree · 13 pts apart
Democrats are favored to control the House — 79.1%
Democrats 241 Republicans 194 218 for control Predicted Democratic seats
241
80% range 201–279
218 for control 50D 218D 403D Tipping-point race The seat that delivers the majority in the median path: WI-03 .
Model vs. market · control of the House
Democratic Republican Akashic Democratic 79% Market Democratic 87% agree · 7 pts apart
Democrats are favored to hold a majority of statehouses — 67.9%
Democrats 27 Republicans 23 26 for control Predicted Democratic seats
27
80% range 22–31
26 for control 9D 26D 40D Tipping-point race The seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Florida .
Across every 2026 race Polymarket is trading, these are the widest gaps between Akashic’s race rating and the market’s implied odds — our call against the crowd on a single Democratic-to-Republican axis. A market price is trader sentiment, not a forecast; the gap is the conversation.
· Polymarket
Foresight election-night desk →
When validated results arrive, the private model becomes a public evidence-backed probability desk. Probabilities remain distinct from human-approved race projections, and blocked contests explain why a number is being withheld.
The accountability scorecard →
Every locked call is scored in public when the results land — Brier, calibration, the named misses, and the seat-forecast error. The record starts with the forecast Akashic actually published in 2026: no retroactive calls and no simulated historical record.
Unofficial reference. Akashic is independent and not affiliated with any election authority, candidate, or party . Historical results are compiled from public sources; forecasts are probabilities, scored in public after the fact; any live figures are provisional estimates that can change. For official, certified results, consult your state or local election office. See our methodology and terms .