Forecast / U.S. House

2026 U.S. House forecast

Name: 2026 U.S. House forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

All 435 districts on the 2026 lines, rated and simulated into a seat distribution and a probability of House control.

Democrats are favored to control the House — 79.1%

Democrats control

79.1%

Republicans control

20.9%

Predicted Democratic seats

241

80% range 201–279

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: WI-03.

Model vs. market · control of the House

Akashic modelDemocratic 79%MarketDemocratic 87%agree · 7 pts apart

Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →

All 435 districts, filled by race rating · cyan outlines a district projected to flip party · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result

Every district, by rating

All 435 districts placed along the rating spectrum — Safe Democratic on the left through to Safe Republican on the right. Each card is the matchup (or the upcoming primary date) and the seat’s 2024 presidential lean; a cyan edge marks a district projected to flip party, and a cyan market dot marks a district where the prediction market disagrees with our call. Follow a race for the full call, its market odds, and its place page.

Safe D2035 flips

CA-48flipD+3DesmondvWilpert CA-03flipD+10BeravTucker CA-01flipD+12McGuirevGallagher*CA-41flipD+14SánchezvClemmons UT-01flipD+24McAdamsvOwen IN-01evenMrvan*vRegnitz CA-13evenGray*vII NV-03R+1Lee*vO'Donnell NJ-09R+1Pou*vPino NY-04D+1Gillen*vDriscoll NJ-05D+1Gottheimer*vKirrane NY-19D+2Riley*vOberacker NM-02R+2Vasquez*vCunningham MI-08R+2Primary 08/04/26 NH-01D+2Primary 09/08/26 NV-01D+2Titus*vBuck NV-04D+2Horsford*vWhipple VA-07D+3Primary 08/04/26 WA-03R+3Primary 08/04/26 OH-13D+3Sykes*vColeman NY-18D+3Ryan*vAuringer NH-02D+4Primary 09/08/26 CA-45D+4Tran*vVo KS-03D+4Primary 08/04/26 NY-03R+4Suozzi*vLiPetri IL-17D+5Sorensen*vVancil IL-14D+5Underwood*vMarter NM-03D+5Fernandez*vZamora CT-05D+5Primary 08/11/26 IL-06D+5Casten*vConforti PA-17D+5Deluzio*vGuy WA-08D+6Primary 08/04/26 MD-06D+6Delaney*vFicker MN-02D+6Primary 08/11/26 CA-25D+6Ruiz*vMales CA-21D+6Costa*vKirkland NJ-06D+6Pallone*vHerzig NY-06D+6Meng*vChou AZ-04D+7Primary 07/21/26 IL-08D+7BeanvDavis GA-02D+8Bishop*vDay NY-22D+8Mannion*vBuller CA-35D+8Torres*vCargile CT-02D+8Primary 08/11/26 MI-03D+8Primary 08/04/26 RI-02D+8Primary 09/09/26 NJ-03D+8Conaway*vMcGuire VA-10D+8Primary 08/04/26 CA-06D+8KileyvPan NJ-11D+8Mejia*vHathaway OR-05D+8Bynum*vAdair CA-39D+10Takano*vManos CA-27D+10Whitesides*vGibbs CA-33D+10Aguilar*vVargas CA-47D+10Min*vRoux IL-13D+10Budzinski*vWilson MA-09D+11Primary 09/01/26 IL-11D+11Foster*vWalter OR-06D+11Salinas*vRuss PA-06D+11Houlahan*vYoung CA-09D+11Harder*vMcBride OR-04D+12Hoyle*vDeSpain CA-49D+12Levin*vKurdian CA-31D+12Cisneros*vChing CA-38D+12SolisvCasas NM-01D+13Stansbury*vOkpareke CA-07D+13Matsui*vVang CA-42D+13Garcia*vBurley MA-01D+13Primary 09/01/26 FL-23D+14Primary 08/18/26 CT-03D+14Primary 08/11/26 NY-20D+14Tonko*vAmbrosio CA-04D+14JonesvThompson*DE-ALD+15Primary 09/15/26 CO-07D+15Primary 06/30/26 CA-26D+15IrwinvGallucci PA-04D+16Dean*vStuski MI-11D+16Primary 08/04/26 CA-46D+16Correa*vPan TX-16D+16Escobar*vBauman CA-52D+18Vargas*vBelle AL-07D+18Primary 08/11/26 WA-10D+18Primary 08/04/26 CA-51D+18Jacobs*vCabrera CA-50D+18Peters*vCohen NY-25D+18Morelle*vMcIntyre NJ-01D+18Norcross*vGaldo MD-02D+18Olszewski*vWallace MA-03D+19Primary 09/01/26 KY-03D+19McGarvey*vRodriguez PA-12D+19Lee*vHayes WA-06D+19Primary 08/04/26 NY-26D+19Kennedy*vHannon MA-04D+19Primary 09/01/26 CO-06D+20Primary 06/30/26 MA-06D+20Primary 09/01/26 MS-02D+20Thompson*vEller RI-01D+21Primary 09/09/26 MN-03D+21Primary 08/11/26 HI-02D+22Primary 08/08/26 IL-10D+22Schneider*vLambrecht ME-01D+22Pingree*vRussellRCV AZ-07D+22Primary 07/21/26 SC-06D+23Clyburn*vPeterson CT-01D+23Primary 08/11/26 MI-06D+23Primary 08/04/26 MA-02D+23Primary 09/01/26 TX-07D+23Fletcher*·Hale·Espoir WA-02D+24Primary 08/04/26 CT-04D+24Primary 08/11/26 MD-03D+24Elfreth*vFlowers NJ-12D+24HamawyvMele FL-10D+24Primary 08/18/26 NJ-08D+24Menendez*CA-02D+25Huffman*vLittau HI-01D+25Primary 08/08/26 CA-24D+25Carbajal*vSmith CA-32D+25Sherman*vThompson CA-28D+25Chu*vVerlato MA-08D+26Primary 09/01/26 IL-04D+28GarciavCastillo CA-18D+28Lofgren*vLewis WA-01D+29Primary 08/04/26 TX-20D+29Castro*vBaez PA-05D+29Scanlon*vManganaro TX-29D+30Garcia*vFierro IL-03D+31Ramirez*vOakley VT-ALD+32Primary 08/11/26 NY-14D+32Ocasio-Cortez*vHysenaj IL-01D+32Jackson*vMaxwell VA-04D+33Primary 08/04/26 TX-33D+33AllredvGillespie NY-16D+33Latimer*vCinquemani IL-02D+33MillervNoack MD-05D+33BoafovChaffee CA-10D+34DeSaulnier*vFrese NC-02D+34Ross*·Douglass·Laszacs CA-29D+34Rivas*vDueñas VA-11D+34Primary 08/04/26 CA-08D+34Garamendi*vRecile CA-19D+34Panetta*vVerbica VA-03D+35Primary 08/04/26 CA-14D+35WahabvHernandez CA-44D+35Barragán*vAngel MN-04D+36Primary 08/11/26 PA-02D+36Boyle*vArriaga IL-09D+36BissvElleson FL-20D+37Primary 08/18/26 IL-05D+37Quigley*vHanson OR-01D+38Bonamici*vKahl MI-12D+38Primary 08/04/26 FL-24D+39Primary 08/18/26 CA-17D+39Khanna*vTandon CA-36D+39Lieu*vBrignano AZ-03D+40Primary 07/21/26 CO-02D+40Primary 06/30/26 OH-03D+40Beatty*vDulaney CA-30D+40Friedman*vMeyers WI-02D+40Primary 08/11/26 NY-09D+40Clarke*vAnabilah-Azumah WA-09D+41Primary 08/04/26 MI-13D+41Primary 08/04/26 IN-07D+41Carson*·McAuley·Sceniak NY-05D+42Meeks*vMarsh GA-13D+42Scott*vSzilagyi MA-05D+44Primary 09/01/26 NY-08D+45Jeffries*vMizrahi NC-04D+45Foushee*·Ganorkar·Meilleur OR-03D+46Dexter*vAyles NC-12D+46Adams*vCodiga NY-07D+46ValdezvRivera TX-30D+47IIIvJackson LA-02D+47Primary 11/03/26 CA-15D+48Mullin*vHoelter CA-16D+48Liccardo*vSoulé NY-15D+48Torres*vSapaskis CA-43D+49Waters*vMorales VA-08D+49Primary 08/04/26 GA-06D+50McBath*vMartin CA-34D+51Gomez*vGonzales-Torres NJ-10D+51McIver*vBucco WI-04D+52Primary 08/11/26 GA-04D+52Johnson*vDuffie OH-11D+55Brown*vKirchner TX-18D+55Menefee*vWhitfield CO-01D+56Primary 06/30/26 TX-37D+56Casar*vPeña MD-08D+56Raskin*vRiley MO-01D+58Primary 08/04/26 MD-07D+59Mfume*vCollier NY-13D+59ChevaliervWilliams CA-37D+60Kamlager-Dove*vMota NY-10D+61LandervMoore MN-05D+62Primary 08/11/26 MA-07D+62Primary 09/01/26 NY-12D+64LashervShinkle IL-07D+65FordvKoppie CA-11D+68WienervChan GA-05D+72Williams*vSalvesen MD-04D+74Ivey*vMcDermott CA-12D+74Simon*vJoyce WA-07D+75Primary 08/04/26 PA-03D+77Rabb

Likely D1511 flips

VA-02flipevenPrimary 08/04/26 AZ-06flipR+1Primary 07/21/26 MI-07flipR+1Primary 08/04/26 NJ-07flipR+1Jr.*vBennett CA-22flipR+2Valadao*vVillegas CO-08flipR+2Primary 06/30/26 AZ-01flipR+3Primary 07/21/26 NE-02flipD+5PowellvHarding PA-10flipR+5StelsonvPerry*WI-03flipR+7Primary 08/11/26 IA-01flipR+8BohannanvMiller-Meeks*OH-01R+3Landsman*·Conroy·Hancock FL-25R+9Primary 08/18/26 TX-34R+10Gonzalez*vFlores TX-28R+10Cuellar*vTijerina

Lean D43 flips

NY-17flipD+1Lawler*vConley PA-07flipR+3Mackenzie*vBrooks IA-03flipR+4GarriottvNunn*FL-14R+10Primary 08/18/26

Tilt D1915 flips

PA-01flipevenFitzpatrick*vHarvie VA-01flipR+5Primary 08/04/26 MI-04flipR+6Primary 08/04/26 MI-10flipR+7Primary 08/04/26 PA-08flipR+9Bresnahan*vCognetti CO-05flipR+9Primary 06/30/26 NC-11flipR+9AgervEdwards*CO-03flipR+10Primary 06/30/26 IA-02flipR+10JamesvMitchell MT-01flipR+12ForstagvFlint VA-05flipR+12Primary 08/04/26 AZ-02flipR+15Primary 07/21/26 TX-15flipR+18Cruz*vPulido CO-04flipR+18Primary 06/30/26 NY-21flipR+21ConstantinovGendebien FL-22R+10Primary 08/18/26 OH-09R+11Kaptur*·Merrin·Althaus NC-01R+12Davis*·Buckhout·Bailey FL-09R+18Primary 08/18/26

Tilt R192 flips

ME-02flipR+10LePagevDunlapRCV TX-35flipR+11CruzvGarcia WI-01R+5Primary 08/11/26 OH-10R+8Turner*vKnickerbocker NY-01R+10LaLota*vGallant OH-07R+11Miller*vPoindexter FL-04R+12Primary 08/18/26 MN-01R+12Primary 08/11/26 FL-07R+12Primary 08/18/26 SC-01R+13Lacore·Honeycutt·Reeside·Ellis FL-13R+13Primary 08/18/26 NC-03R+14Murphy*·Jr.·Cavender FL-16R+14Primary 08/18/26 MN-08R+14Primary 08/11/26 FL-27R+15Primary 08/18/26 TX-23R+15HerreravStout FL-12R+15Primary 08/18/26 NC-09R+16Hudson*vOjeda FL-21R+16Primary 08/18/26

Lean R4

WA-05R+11Primary 08/04/26 NJ-02R+13Drew*vMullock NY-02R+14Garbarino*vHalpin KY-06R+15AlvaradovDembo

Safe R1483 flips

TX-09flipR+20MealervGutierrez TN-09flipR+21Primary 08/06/26 LA-06flipR+30Primary 11/03/26 CA-40R+12Kim*vCalvert AK-ALR+13Primary 08/18/26 SC-02R+14Wilson*·Khalifa·Smith GA-12R+14Allen*vHendricks NC-14R+15Moore*vWomack AR-02R+16JonesvHill*OH-08R+16Davidson*vEnoch GA-01R+16KingstonvHollowell AZ-08R+16Primary 07/21/26 NC-13R+16Knott*·Barringer·Swinton IN-05R+17Spartz*vFord MD-01R+17Harris*vSchwartz FL-18R+17Primary 08/18/26 NC-06R+17McDowell*vJefferson NC-10R+18Harrigan*·Bell·Feldman NC-05R+18Foxx*·Hubbard·Luffman FL-02R+18Primary 08/18/26 NC-08R+19Harris*·Watson·Whitehead CA-23R+19Obernolte*vHodge MN-06R+20Primary 08/11/26 KS-02R+20Primary 08/04/26 OK-05R+20NelsonvBice*MO-03R+20Primary 08/04/26 AZ-05R+20Primary 07/21/26 TN-08R+20Primary 08/06/26 WA-04R+21Primary 08/04/26 CA-05R+21McClintock*vMasuda GA-10R+21GainesvDeLancy TX-38R+21BonckvMcDonough FL-03R+21Primary 08/18/26 NY-23R+21Langworthy*vGies TX-27R+21Cloud*·Lloyd·McQueen PA-11R+21Smucker*vMannion MO-04R+21Primary 08/04/26 FL-05R+21Primary 08/18/26 OK-01R+22CroisantvTedford TX-17R+22Sessions*vShepard TX-31R+22Carter*vEarly TX-21R+22TeixeiravHook FL-17R+22Primary 08/18/26 GA-07R+22McCormick*vKozycki TX-22R+22NehlsvGreene-Scott WI-05R+22Primary 08/11/26 TN-07R+22Primary 08/06/26 IL-16R+23LaHood*vNolley TX-10R+23GobervRourk SC-05R+23ClimervDittmer PA-16R+23Kelly*vWagner TX-06R+23Ellzey*vMinton TN-05R+23Primary 08/06/26 GA-11R+23CowanvHarden KS-04R+23Primary 08/04/26 TX-03R+23Self*vHunt SC-04R+24Timmons*vMcClain VA-06R+24Primary 08/04/26 TX-26R+24Gill*vShook TX-12R+24Goldman*vPrilliman TN-04R+24Primary 08/06/26 TX-25R+24Williams*vSims TX-14R+24Weber*vBartie NY-11R+24Malliotakis*vDeCillis TX-04R+25Fallon*vPearce AR-03R+25RyersevWomack*TX-36R+25Babin*vHart SC-07R+26Fry*vVincent IN-02R+26Yakym*·Decio·Henry TN-06R+27Primary 08/06/26 MO-06R+27Primary 08/04/26 ID-02R+27Simpson*vGilbreath OR-02R+27BeckvBentz*MI-05R+27Primary 08/04/26 TX-08R+28SteinmannvJones UT-02R+29Moore*vCrosby AL-05R+29SneedvStrong*SD-ALR+29JackleyvGronli MS-03R+29ChiaradiovGuest*IN-04R+29Baird*vCox MT-02R+30Downing*vMiller GA-03R+30Jack*vKeller IN-09R+30Houchin*·Meyer·Hudson FL-06R+30Primary 08/18/26 MI-02R+30Primary 08/04/26 OH-12R+30Balderson*vChristian FL-19R+30Primary 08/18/26 NJ-04R+30Smith*vPeace GA-08R+31Scott*vEsti AZ-09R+31Primary 07/21/26 IN-03R+31Stutzman*vThompson KS-01R+31Primary 08/04/26 IA-04R+31DawsonvMcGowan CA-20R+32Fong*vScotter MI-09R+32Primary 08/04/26 OK-04R+32JacobvCole*IN-06R+32Shreve*vWirth UT-04R+33KennedyvLarsen PA-14R+33Reschenthaler*vBradstock TN-02R+34Primary 08/06/26 LA-04R+34Primary 11/03/26 LA-05R+34Primary 11/03/26 GA-09R+34Clyde*vGegen AL-06R+34Primary 08/11/26 TX-11R+34Pfluger*vReynolds OH-06R+35Rulli*vKirtley KY-04R+36StrangevGallrein TN-03R+36Primary 08/06/26 IN-08R+36Messmer*vAllen AL-01R+36Primary 08/11/26 LA-03R+36Primary 11/03/26 MN-07R+36Primary 08/11/26 ND-ALR+36Fedorchak*vHammer GA-14R+37HarrisvFuller*FL-01R+37Primary 08/18/26 MS-01R+37JohnsonvKelly*PA-09R+38Meuser*vWallace PA-15R+38Thompson*vBilger LA-01R+38Primary 11/03/26 IL-15R+40Miller*vTodd WV-02R+40Moore*vParsi AR-04R+40RussellvWesterman*KY-02R+41WingfieldvGuthrie*UT-03R+41Maloy*vUdell OH-02R+42Taylor*vMazzuckelli MO-07R+43Primary 08/04/26 MS-04R+43IIIvEzell*OH-04R+43Jordan*·Wilson·Kolasinski OK-03R+43ByrdvLucas*SC-03R+43Biggs*vLehmacher IL-12R+43Bost*vFortier VA-09R+44Primary 08/04/26 WV-01R+44Miller*vGeorge ID-01R+45Fulcher*vPeterson AR-01R+45GreenvCrawford*PA-13R+46Joyce*vFarnham WY-ALR+46Primary 08/18/26 TX-13R+46Jackson*vNair AL-03R+47McInnisvRogers*KY-01R+47WilliamsvComer*TX-01R+49Moran*·Prince·Canchola TX-19R+52SellvRable NE-03R+54Smith*vStille MO-08R+54Primary 08/04/26 OK-02R+56WadevBrecheen*TN-01R+58Primary 08/06/26 KY-05R+64PillersdorfvRogers*AL-04R+66PusczekvAderholt*

How these ratings become probabilities → · The certified U.S. House record →