All 35 seats on the 2026 ballot — the 33 Class 2 seats plus the Florida and Ohio specials — rated and expressed as win probabilities, with a 100-seat control simulation.
ForecastA single, locked expectation — as of July 8, 2026. Predicted outcomes, never results.
Democrats are favored to control the Senate — 56.7%
Democrats control
56.7%
Republicans control
43.3%
incl. 8.7% at 50–50 (VP breaks the tie)
Predicted Democratic seats
51
80% range 47–55
A 50–50 U.S. Senate is Republican-controlled — the Vice President breaks the tie — so Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50.
Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Nebraska.
Each state with a 2026 Senate race, filled by race rating · cyan outlines a seat projected to flip party · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result
Every race, grouped by rating
All 35 seats under their published race rating, the bands running Safe Democratic down to Safe Republican. Each card is the seat, who holds it going in, the matchup (or the upcoming primary date), the market’s implied odds where Polymarket is trading the race, and how the seat has voted for president across the last five cycles. A cyan edge marks a seat projected to flip party. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.
