Alaska — Governor
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — Governor yet.
When a liquid two-party market opens on Polymarket for this race, its implied odds will appear here beside our model. We show only real market prices — never an estimated one.
| Candidate |
|---|
| Bernadette WilsonR |
| Adam CrumR |
| Treg TaylorR |
| Tom BegichD |
| Matt ClamanD |
| Bill WalkerIndependent |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited. Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four blanket primary on Aug 18, 2026 (NOT yet held), with a ranked-choice general. The final four are not yet set; candidates listed are major declared contenders across parties. Field is large and also includes Republicans Click Bishop, Shelley Hughes, Dave Bronson, Edna DeVries, Lesil McGuire; Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins; and other independents. Candidate set is provisional pending the primary. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AK state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Michael DunleavyR | R+26 |
| 2018 | Mike DunleavyR | R+7 |
| 2014 | Bill Walker | — |
| 2010 | Sean ParnellR | R+21 |
| 2006 | Sarah PalinR | R+7 |
| 2002 | Frank MurkowskiR | R+15 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 54·Wilson 46 | D+8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 44·Wilson 31·Bishop 25 | D+13 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 41·Wilson 22·Bishop 19 | D+19 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | — LV | Begich 54·Wilson 46 | D+8 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →