AkashicAlaska — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — Governor yet.
When a liquid market opens on Polymarket, its raw outcome prices will appear here. We never infer a missing party price or renormalize away independent and Other outcomes.
| Candidate |
|---|
| Bernadette WilsonRNominee |
| Tom BegichDNominee |
| Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsDNominee |
| Adam CrumR |
| Treg TaylorR |
| Matt ClamanD |
| Bill WalkerIndependent |
Declared candidates. Open seat — Dunleavy term-limited. Top-four, RCV general. Preliminary: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 21.6%, Tom Begich (D) 20.1%, Wilson (R) 10.4%, Bronson (R) 8.4%; counting through Aug 28 and Republicans weighing consolidation — final four not locked. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Michael DunleavyR | R+26 |
| 2018 | Mike DunleavyR | R+7 |
| 2014 | Bill Walker | — |
| 2010 | Sean ParnellR | R+21 |
| 2006 | Sarah PalinR | R+7 |
| 2002 | Frank MurkowskiR | R+15 |
All-vote margin (D−R divided by total votes), most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 54·Wilson 46 | D+8 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 44·Wilson 31·Bishop 25 | D+13 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,923 LV | Begich 41·Wilson 22·Bishop 19 | D+19 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | — LV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →