AkashicAlabama — Governor
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 8%; raw Republican YES price 93%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Tommy TubervilleRNominee |
| Doug JonesDNominee |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Kay Ivey (R) is term-limited. Primary held May 19, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville won the GOP primary outright (~85%); former U.S. Sen. Doug Jones won the Democratic primary outright (~76%), so the June 16 runoff was not needed for governor. Tuberville heavily favored in this red state. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Kay IveyR | R+38 |
| 2018 | Kay IveyR | R+19 |
| 2014 | Robert J. BentleyR | R+27 |
| 2010 | Robert J. BentleyR | R+16 |
| 2006 | Bob RileyR | R+16 |
| 2002 | Bob RileyR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →