AkashicArizona — Governor
We expect Democrats to win71%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 79%; raw Republican YES price 21%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Katie HobbsDIncumbentNominee |
| Andy BiggsRNominee |
| Teri HourihanNo LabelsNominee |
| David SchweikertR |
| Barry HessLibertarian |
Declared candidates. Hobbs unopposed; Rep. Andy Biggs won the GOP primary with 74.0% over David Schweikert (AP call July 22). First AZ governor race with running mates: Hobbs-Giles vs Biggs-Kerr. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →