AkashicConnecticut — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 94%; raw Republican YES price 6%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Ned LamontDIncumbentNominee |
| Ryan FazioRNominee |
| Josh ElliottD |
Declared candidates. Gov. Ned Lamont, seeking a third term, beat Josh Elliott 67.9%-32.1% in the Aug 11 Democratic primary. Greenwich state Sen. Ryan Fazio was unopposed for the GOP nomination. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ned LamontD | D+13 |
| 2018 | Ned Lamont And Susan BysiewiczD | D+3 |
| 2014 | Dannel MalloyD | D+2 |
| 2010 | Dannel MalloyD | D+1 |
| 2006 | Jodi RellR | R+28 |
| 2002 | John G. RowlandR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →