Florida — Governor
The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 82% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 39-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Jul 26, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Byron DonaldsR |
| Jay CollinsR |
| James FishbackR |
| David JollyD |
| Jerry DemingsD |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited. The Aug 18 primary has not occurred. GOP: U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear frontrunner (Trump-endorsed) over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Democrats: former U.S. Rep. David Jolly is the frontrunner, with Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings second; the Democratic field is large with many voters undecided. No nominees yet. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ron DesantisR | R+19 |
| 2018 | Ron DesantisR | Even |
| 2014 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2010 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2006 | Charlie CristR | R+7 |
| 2002 | Jeb BushR | R+13 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Jolly 40·Donalds 40 | Even |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Fishback 43·Jolly 38 | R+5 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Donalds 46·Demings 42 | R+4 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Donalds 47·Jolly 40 | R+7 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 406 LV | Donalds 49·Jolly 43 | R+6 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 406 LV | Donalds 48·Demings 44 | R+4 |
| MDW Communications | Mar 27 – Apr 3 | 1,834 LV | Donalds 41·Jolly 41 | R+1 |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–31 | 1,125 LV | Donalds 44·Jolly 39 | R+5 |
| Emerson College | Mar 29–31 | — LV | Donalds 45·Demings 36 | R+9 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →