AkashicFlorida — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketRaw Democratic YES price 18%; raw Republican YES price 83%.
No model-versus-market gap is calculated until both systems represent every independent and Other outcome.
Raw YES prices from live Polymarket markets; D and R are not renormalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Byron DonaldsRNominee |
| David JollyDNominee |
| Desmond MeadeNo Party AffiliationNominee |
| Jay CollinsR |
| James FishbackR |
| Jerry DemingsD |
Declared candidates. Open seat — DeSantis term-limited. Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds won the Aug 18 GOP primary with 47.8% over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins; ex-GOP congressman-turned-Democrat David Jolly won the Dem primary with 61%. Voting-rights advocate Desmond Meade qualified NPA. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ron DesantisR | R+19 |
| 2018 | Ron DesantisR | even |
| 2014 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2010 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2006 | Charlie CristR | R+7 |
| 2002 | Jeb BushR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida PORL | Jul 8–17 | 848 LV | Donalds 46·Jolly 41 | R+5 |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Jolly 40·Donalds 40 | even |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Fishback 43·Jolly 38 | R+5 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Donalds 46 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races → · The certified Governors record →